Oil Rises For Second Day Amid Optimism Over Economic Growth in U.S., China
--By Grant Smith and Christian Schmollinger - Sep 13, 2010 2:35 AM PT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...timism-over-economic-growth-in-u-s-china.html
Crude advanced for a second day in New York on expectations fuel demand will climb in the U.S. and China, the worldâs largest oil-consuming nations.
1)Chinaâs oil refiners raised processing runs 7.2 percent in August from a year earlier & Goldman forecast rise for crude $85 to 95 for rest of the year
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Futures gained on forecasts that retail sales rose in the U.S. for a second month and a pipeline supplying the Midwest region remained closed. Chinaâs oil refiners raised processing runs 7.2 percent in August from a year earlier. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted crude prices will rise to a range of $85 to $95 a barrel for the rest of this year as inventories decline.
âNews that Chinese production is growing more than expected is very supportive,â said Thorbjoern Bak Jensen, a Global Risk Management analyst based in Middelfart, Denmark. âU.S. data this week may further write off the prospect of a double-dip.â
Crude for October delivery climbed as much as $1.05, or 1.4 percent, to $77.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $77.32 at 10:29 a.m. London time. Brent crude for October settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange rose 33 cents to $78.49 a barrel.
Prices advanced the most in six weeks on Sept. 10 as China increased imports of crude and a leak closed a pipeline carrying Canadian oil to refineries in the U.S. Midwest. The contract gained $2.20, or 3 percent, to $76.45, the highest settlement since Aug. 11. Futures have declined 2.7 percent this year.
Chinaâs crude processing climbed to 34.7 million metric tons in August from a year earlier, China Mainland Market Research Co. said today. Thatâs about 8.2 million barrels a day. Processing reached 35.28 million tons in July.
2) Pipeline Leak
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U.S. retail sales probably rose 0.3 percent, according to the median estimate from 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before tomorrowâs Commerce Department report. This follows a 0.4 percent gain in July.
Enbridge Energy Partners LP has drained oil from the damaged section of its Line 6A pipeline shut on Sept. 9 and does not yet know when it will restart, it said in a statement today. The pipeline is part of a network that can transport 670,000 barrels a day from Canada. The country is the largest source of U.S. imports, sending 2.2 million barrels a day in June, according to the Energy Department.
3) Hedge fund Net Longs Increase
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Hedge funds and other large speculators raised bets on gains in oil prices for the first time in five weeks on renewed signs the U.S. economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s.
Net-long positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 8 percent in the week ended Sept. 7, the first increase since the seven days ended Aug. 3, according to the weekly Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The price of crude advanced 2.5 percent on the Nymex last week, the most since July.
âWe expect the supply-demand balance to continue to tighten in the second half of 2010 as continued global economic growth, albeit likely at a slower pace, continues to strengthen demand,â Goldman analysts led by David Greely said today in a weekly report.