CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
The daily looks pretty damn bullish. It looks like it wants to make the right shoulder of the H&S pattern.
However, today being a Friday, I thought I look at the weekly for a change. As you can see from the attached chart, we're making a nice rounding top pattern. Now you tell me if that's bullish or bearish.
However, today being a Friday, I thought I look at the weekly for a change. As you can see from the attached chart, we're making a nice rounding top pattern. Now you tell me if that's bullish or bearish.
Here is a piece of junk report on Market watch , my comments under << ....... >> section
Now I know how reliable these reporting is and how to use them going forward
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cr...omic-hopes-2010-09-10?link=MW_related_stories
"Crude oil is off on its own a little bit today," said Darin Newsom, a senior commodities analyst at Telvent DTN in Omaha, Neb.
<<<< so no mention of blow of Pipe line which imports 8-9% of oil
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6810XU20100910
>>>>>
"It's a low volume day, and that allows for some large moves to happen. There are a few stories out there, you've got a few orders in and it's helping to push the market higher."
On Thursday, crude fell slightly as a drop in U.S. weekly jobless claims was overshadowed by inventories data and lingering unease over European banks' health.
<< oil inventory numbers are Bearish for OIL price on WEDNEDAY ) >>
But on Friday morning the International Energy Agency said that it had increased its forecast for global oil demand this year by 50,000 barrels a day. The IEA now forecasts demand of 86.6 million barrels a day for 2010. It held its forecast for 2011 at 87.9 million barrels a day.
Also boosting prices, the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories for the week ended Sept. 3 fell by 1.9 million barrels, far less than a trade group estimated late Wednesday.
<< same oil inventory numbers are BULLISH for OIL price on FRIDAY today) >>
Now I know how reliable these reporting is and how to use them going forward
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cr...omic-hopes-2010-09-10?link=MW_related_stories
"Crude oil is off on its own a little bit today," said Darin Newsom, a senior commodities analyst at Telvent DTN in Omaha, Neb.
<<<< so no mention of blow of Pipe line which imports 8-9% of oil
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6810XU20100910
>>>>>
"It's a low volume day, and that allows for some large moves to happen. There are a few stories out there, you've got a few orders in and it's helping to push the market higher."
On Thursday, crude fell slightly as a drop in U.S. weekly jobless claims was overshadowed by inventories data and lingering unease over European banks' health.
<< oil inventory numbers are Bearish for OIL price on WEDNEDAY ) >>
But on Friday morning the International Energy Agency said that it had increased its forecast for global oil demand this year by 50,000 barrels a day. The IEA now forecasts demand of 86.6 million barrels a day for 2010. It held its forecast for 2011 at 87.9 million barrels a day.
Also boosting prices, the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories for the week ended Sept. 3 fell by 1.9 million barrels, far less than a trade group estimated late Wednesday.
<< same oil inventory numbers are BULLISH for OIL price on FRIDAY today) >>
Here I am tracking this spread trade in Sim account.
Long Brent-Crude/Short WTI trade:
78.25 Brent LONG/76.55 WIT Short = Net $1.70
Rational: this spread is trading above $3 for many weeks , all of the sudden the spread reduced to below $2 due to Pipe line Break toady. I expect this spread return to normal $3 in one/two weeks time once the PIPE line issue is solved.
Here is Brent Crude chart
http://www.pfgbest.com/traders_tool...0&domain=pfg&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=D
------
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6810XU20100910
The Enbridge pipeline shutdown might help ease a glut at Cushing, Oklahoma -- the pricing point for the main U.S. crude oil contract -- which is chiefly supplied these days with Canadian oil.
Brent posted its biggest premium to WTI since mid-May earlier this week at more than $3.50 a barrel, shrinking on Friday to just under $2.
"We don't know the timeline for when the leak is likely to be fixed. We're likely to see more draws in Cushing than was previously expected," Amrita Sen of Barclays Capital said.
Long Brent-Crude/Short WTI trade:
78.25 Brent LONG/76.55 WIT Short = Net $1.70
Rational: this spread is trading above $3 for many weeks , all of the sudden the spread reduced to below $2 due to Pipe line Break toady. I expect this spread return to normal $3 in one/two weeks time once the PIPE line issue is solved.
Here is Brent Crude chart
http://www.pfgbest.com/traders_tool...0&domain=pfg&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=D
------
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6810XU20100910
The Enbridge pipeline shutdown might help ease a glut at Cushing, Oklahoma -- the pricing point for the main U.S. crude oil contract -- which is chiefly supplied these days with Canadian oil.
Brent posted its biggest premium to WTI since mid-May earlier this week at more than $3.50 a barrel, shrinking on Friday to just under $2.
"We don't know the timeline for when the leak is likely to be fixed. We're likely to see more draws in Cushing than was previously expected," Amrita Sen of Barclays Capital said.
That's a very good spread, one of my best friends has make a living just out of spreads in energy for the last 10-15 years, he mentioned this week, pretty much what you are saying, and also mention that is good to check the cost of transport to both sides of the Atlantic.
Do you know what is the margin of that spread with your broker, because IB, is not giving me a special price for that spread, and I was really interest it.
Thanks
Which all means ya shouldn't watch or read the news. In the end, it will only make you crazy. While I have great respect for journalists as a whole, financial journalists are all morons to n-th degree.
Quote from InvestVision:
Here is a piece of junk report on Market watch , my comments under << ....... >> section
Now I know how reliable these reporting is and how to use them going forward
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cr...omic-hopes-2010-09-10?link=MW_related_stories
"Crude oil is off on its own a little bit today," said Darin Newsom, a senior commodities analyst at Telvent DTN in Omaha, Neb.
<<<< so no mention of blow of Pipe line which imports 8-9% of oil
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6810XU20100910
>>>>>
"It's a low volume day, and that allows for some large moves to happen. There are a few stories out there, you've got a few orders in and it's helping to push the market higher."
On Thursday, crude fell slightly as a drop in U.S. weekly jobless claims was overshadowed by inventories data and lingering unease over European banks' health.
<< oil inventory numbers are Bearish for OIL price on WEDNEDAY ) >>
But on Friday morning the International Energy Agency said that it had increased its forecast for global oil demand this year by 50,000 barrels a day. The IEA now forecasts demand of 86.6 million barrels a day for 2010. It held its forecast for 2011 at 87.9 million barrels a day.
Also boosting prices, the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories for the week ended Sept. 3 fell by 1.9 million barrels, far less than a trade group estimated late Wednesday.
<< same oil inventory numbers are BULLISH for OIL price on FRIDAY today) >>
i will be scaling in short monday morning, barring war.
