CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Here is the link
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/business/worldbusiness/23oil.html
Matter fact it want point it was 26 dollars up, in one day, and yest it didn't make it all in the last hour, but the big movement was in the last hour, I remember that it had to do a lot with being the last day of the trading of that contract, the month that follow that one "just" gain 10 dollars that day, I remember like it was today.
Buying into a strong trend is best done via breakouts. You never know if the dip is going to be shallow or deep, or if it's going to be the end of the trend, so you watch for breakout setups. Price makes a new high, then pulls back, then approaches the new high and you enter long a tick or two before the test of the high and ride the breakout in the direction of your trade. No heat that way.
Fades work well, as I said, if you wait long enough to start them, set very tight stops, and take every setup until you catch the reversal. Today's top reversal was off the 11:05am bar and the first lower high short was off 12:00 noon bar, which I traded to the short side.
My exit on that one was 78.03.
you are doing very good trading there. I normally trade with the major trend, I do not buy dip much, I like to wait until it approaches a point: I feel I must jump in, so strong. normally when I jump in, it will immediately shows me profit, then I will wait for the thrust bar (you are talking about, I out most time based on price projection, take pro-active in exit, not wait for confirmed signal like entry). I do did lots of fading for the thrust bar whether in downside or upside, but I learned, I often got out pre-marturely even I got the bottom price or the top price. so I changed my trading style into "wait, get a strong feeling about the tape, then jump in, with tight stop, most at 10cents"
For those interested in strategies when trading 1 lot, I offer how I entered and exited this trade.
Price left a lower high by way of the 12:00 noon 5-min bar. However, it also left a higher low off a rising 20-bar MA by way of the 11:30am bar. We have conflicting signals, so I prefer to be a confirmed short rather than an early short that enters a bear trap.
So I wait for confirmation via a failure to break through the noon lower high. I would like to enter short if price fails there AND breaks down the 12:05pm bar's pivot low of 78.28. Because the bars surrounding this zone are fairly narrow range, I decide to prepare a short entry in advance by way of a sell stop placed @ 78.27.
Sure enough price fails to thrive, leaving another lower high, and as soon as my entry order is triggered the trade is immediately $70 in my favor. That's the benefit of entering by way of stop orders placed at key levels. I now move my stop to b/e because a retrace back through that pivot low likely means previous trend continuation.
I have an initial mental target of 78.03, which is the next previous support level to be tested. The lower high means price should make a lower low.
I will do nothing until price either reaches that zone or retraces and stops me out break even.
Price rapidly approaches my target zone, so I then put in a real target order @ 77.77, which is 4 ticks above the low of the 10:25am breakout bar (and which is also a really nifty number).
Price breaks down my initial mental target of 78.03 and I immediately move my stop to 78.03. (If I was trading more than one, I might take partial off there and let the rest ride.)
Now I am guaranteed my initial target on the trade and if the breakdown is for real, my next target level will likely come into play (CL is technically beautiful, have I said that before???)
Buyers come back in and I'm stopped out at initial target of 78.03.