CL Redux

Quote from schizo:

Sorry, but you're completely wrong. Trading isn't about gambling and clairvoyance. But it is about probability. In another word, ANTICIPATION plays a very large role. If you truly want to succeed as a trader, you must master this concept, period. Every good trader MUST KNOW IN ADVANCE where he will enter, where he will take profit and where he will place his stop. Otherwise, it really is a gambling...
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Apart from having a predefined entry method based on accommodating price action, and a corresponding protective exit level to control risk, I would argue that anticipation is closer to gambling than is reacting. I think anticipation harbors more risk than reaction.

As for probability, as it relates to the market's future price action, I think that people who hang their hat on numeric specificity are an accident waiting to happen. There is no probability distribution of future price. There is only uncertainty. An ever changing frequency distribution of past price behavior over time does not actually translate into a reliable probability distribution with numeric specificity of future price behavior. One can certainly use the term "balance of probability" because it is a much more crude assessment. And it is sufficient for trading purposes. But anyone attempting to use actual but non-existent probability with numeric specificity regarding future price action is dreaming.
 
Quote from schizo:

@ Nod,

This shouldn't come as an alien subject from the things I've said in the past.
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I just didn't understand your sentence - "in the open". You mean the open of the trade? Or in advance as I see a setup forming, where I would enter and then my stop and target in advance of actually putting on the trade?

I call my trades live in our group with stops and expected initial targets.
 
Quote from trader198:

I think Nodoji is trading 1lot, and almost 5trades a day, just make 500bucks? there is no exit strategies there, she is a scalper! crude moves daily in the range of at least 1~2 points, 1lot if done right, 1k one day one trade is realistic!
good question.
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First of all I don't trade all my setups; I'm working on getting more aggressive. I should indeed be averaging $1500 a day with 1 lot.

Secondly, there are days my trading time is limited, so a $50 day gets averaged in with other days.

Thirdly, if I have 5 trades does that mean they are all winners? That would be pretty amazing, no?

Today I had 6 trades and netted $700.

I had a scratch trade where I misplaced the stop, got stopped out b/e and the trade then moved to my $350 target, but I didn't chase re-entry because the move went too far without me to chase. Had another where I just plain placed my target wrong after stating that price would move further. Had I placed my target correctly there was an additional $340.

Besides the accidental scratch, I had 4 winners and a loser.

So there's a $1300 day for me trading 1 lot had I not made those two errors.

198, I invite you to my trading room where you can call your trades in real time for, say a week or two, and demonstrate how to accurately average $1000 a day trading 1 lot. It would be a real inspiration to us.
 
I dont care what the average daily range of the insturment is, consistently hitting $1000/day on 1 futures contract is extremely difficult, scalper or trading intraday swings.
 
I dunno why you folks are so obsessed over an arbitrary profit objective (eg. $1,000). What I would rather focus on is whether the game plan went according to my initial plan. Suppose I got into a trade at the support with the price target placed at the next resistance. Should the price target be reached, then I consider that as a winner since it played out as it was planned (IT IS NOT RANDOM!), regardless of how much I made. As such, always plan ahead. As a matter of fact, try to envisage what the noobs would do and plan one step ahead.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I sim traded it for many months and settled on some strategies that work really well for me. I also did (and still do) daily bar-by-bar review to pinpoint setups I missed and determine the likely outcome had I traded them.

So I'm good at trading it because of the time I've put in. And I like how you know very quickly if you're wrong or right, no sitting through tedious chop most of the time. Also entering in the direction of momentum provides instant profit, low risk.

Finally it seems I can average $500 a day trading 1 contract, so I've plenty of room to grow into larger size.
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500/day on 1 contract is pretty awesome.. anyway may i ask what kind of method are you using? i mean do you fade the quick moves or go with them? seems like its characteristic is pretty similiar to what i'm trading (eur/jpy cross) in terms of momentum..
 
you already prove 1k/day with 1lot. as for misplacing/writing wrong order/price, they are part of business, they need be counted.
if you use 20cents stop, then if planned, things should be:
4*400-200=$1400 (win 4 in 5, 1:2R/R)
3*400-400=$800(win 3in5, 1:2 R/R)
4*300-200=$1000(win 4in5, 1:1.5R/R)
3*300-400=$500(win 3in5, 1:1.5R/R)

that is why schizo is questioning, we did not see any of them


Quote from NoDoji:

First of all I don't trade all my setups; I'm working on getting more aggressive. I should indeed be averaging $1500 a day with 1 lot.

Secondly, there are days my trading time is limited, so a $50 day gets averaged in with other days.

Thirdly, if I have 5 trades does that mean they are all winners? That would be pretty amazing, no?

Today I had 6 trades and netted $700.

I had a scratch trade where I misplaced the stop, got stopped out b/e and the trade then moved to my $350 target, but I didn't chase re-entry because the move went too far without me to chase. Had another where I just plain placed my target wrong after stating that price would move further. Had I placed my target correctly there was an additional $340.

Besides the accidental scratch, I had 4 winners and a loser.

So there's a $1300 day for me trading 1 lot had I not made those two errors.

198, I invite you to my trading room where you can call your trades in real time for, say a week or two, and demonstrate how to accurately average $1000 a day trading 1 lot. It would be a real inspiration to us.
More...
 
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