CL Redux

[enochbenjamin]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Kept trying to short CL with a 8 - 10 tick stop on break of candle around 85.10 and kept getting stopped out. For example, saw CL at 85.25, put a limit order in at 85.15 with a 8 tick stop hoping to catch a breakdown. As soon as order fills, market goes back up and stops me out.

From my experience 5-10 tick stops are only good from 9am - 11:30am EST.

Between 11:30am and 1:30pm the volume is very low and overshoots of S&R levels is the norm so a 10 tick stop means nothing.

The final hour used to be pretty predictable with a one way close, but recently it has been extremely choppy with a surge in one direction into the close. During the past 1 - 2 months a 10 tick stop WILL almost certainly get hit during the last hour unless you have impeccable timing.

Looking over my own stats - I should be done trading oil by 11:30am as if I am going to have a profitable day it has been determined by this time.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from ChkitOut:

NoDoji, if I may, what would have been your stop loss on
the 82.7 buy earlier?? Below the 82.51 low or more tight? Good next day come back btw.

thx

I had a tighter stop @ 82.57 and here's why: Price had put in a low of the day, bounced in an attempt by bottom fishers to establish a trend reversal, and that failed, leaving another lower high beneath the falling 20-bar MA. Price moved to test the low, and left a slightly higher low, then moved again to test that higher low. Initially I'm thinking breakdown of the LOD, because 82.00 doesn't seem out of the question now that 20-day MA support was breached. But as soon as I see the buyers come in 1 tick below that higher low (shaking out some early longs, who now have to chase the market to get back in), I reacted instinctively, and placed my stop @ 82.57, because it would likely break down if the support didn't hold there.

I've been noticing those 1-tick failed breakouts of previous bars high/low are very good signals . I read a lot about that in Al Brooks' book (Reading Price Charts Bar By Bar). He's really into taking those signals at key reversal areas because of the fact that early shorts or longs get shaken out by a tick or two, then chase the market to get back in as price does what they thought it was going to do in the first place.

 

[enochbenjamin]

does anyone look at Heikin-Ashi candles to cut down on the noise?

the attached chart is after the pit close, but still demonstrates the small trends well.

 

[ChkitOut]

Quote from NoDoji:

I had a tighter stop @ 82.57 and here's why: Price had put in a low of the day, bounced in an attempt by bottom fishers to establish a trend reversal, and that failed, leaving another lower high beneath the falling 20-bar MA. Price moved to test the low, and left a slightly higher low, then moved again to test that higher low. Initially I'm thinking breakdown of the LOD, because 82.00 doesn't seem out of the question now that 20-day MA support was breached. But as soon as I see the buyers come in 1 tick below that higher low (shaking out some early longs, who now have to chase the market to get back in), I reacted instinctively, and placed my stop @ 82.57, because it would likely break down if the support didn't hold there.

I've been noticing those 1-tick failed breakouts of previous bars high/low are very good signals . I read a lot about that in Al Brooks' book (Reading Price Charts Bar By Bar). He's really into taking those signals at key reversal areas because of the fact that early shorts or longs get shaken out by a tick or two, then chase the market to get back in as price does what they thought it was going to do in the first place.

Interesting, and you're looking at the 1 min chart? I see you took profits at 20ema as the counter trend plan calls for i take it.

 

[EON Kid]

Quote from enochbenjamin:


Looking over my own stats - I should be done trading oil by 11:30am as if I am going to have a profitable day it has been determined by this time.

AND FOLLOW YOUR BLOODY RULES !



with that I bid you all a good evening.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from ChkitOut:

Interesting, and you're looking at the 1 min chart? I see you took profits at 20ema as the counter trend plan calls for i take it.

I'm using a 5-min chart and cross-referencing a 3-min chart to help me with early entry once the 5-min alerts me to a setup.

And yes I targeted the 20-bar MA since it was counter-trend, but there was just a small pause after I was out of the trade and it continued right up to the next Res level in line (83.24).

The standard rule of thumb (till the market cuts off your thumbs) is, if it makes a higher low, it should make a higher high. So technically I should've left at least half my position on looking for a ride through that next R level.

It's so easy to see when you look back at the chart, but in the heat of battle I was still thinking "counter-trend trade and 82.00 not out of the question, take what's given".

 

[enochbenjamin]

Quote from EON Kid:

AND FOLLOW YOUR BLOODY RULES !

I not only deserved, but needed that! Thank you kind sir!

 

[oraclewizard77]

Ok, I posted a 5 min chart since that is what you use. These were sell stop order at the start. Pink was market getting me into the order, blue was market taking me out of the order at a loss.

I did do one long order after my short order got stopped out, and then the long order got stopped out. Only good profitable trade was last trade.

I did make some money on es which I am not showing since its a different chart. Last trade got me 15 ticks of profit. My indicators not shown suggested that market was going to turn lower, and I was in fact correct, but poor order management hurt me today. I should have just averaged in 2 contracts at start, and could have made some good money today.

Quote from NoDoji:

Your pricing is off. Also, your term "limit order" I think is off. If price is @ XX.25 and you enter a limit sell order @ XX.15, it's filled immediately. Do you mean a sell stop order?

If you keep getting stopped out as you say, then you are most likely fighting the trend (as happened to me yesterday). Those little pullbacks are where all the top-picking shorts get trapped and all the trend-following longs pile in to ride the short fuel.

Can you post a chart?

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Ok, I posted a 5 min chart since that is what you use. These were sell stop order at the start. Pink was market getting me into the order, blue was market taking me out of the order at a loss.

I did do one long order after my short order got stopped out, and then the long order got stopped out. Only good profitable trade was last trade.

You must be trading the June contract. I wasn't around during the time you were trading, but the action looks volatile and uncertain, breakout to the upside, big selloff to the range low, bounce almost right back again. Tricky trading at best. I think stops would have to be above the HOD and below the range low, to survive those moves.

 

[oraclewizard77]

Yes trading June near end of day, 1st order, putting stop above high of day would have worked. Last order short, putting stop above high of day would not have given me enough reward vs the risk, but I did have stop above more recent candle highs.

Channel Trend Lines on a higher time chart does seem to indicate market trending down, and I would not be surprised if cl goes much lower.

Quote from NoDoji:

You must be trading the June contract. I wasn't around during the time you were trading, but the action looks volatile and uncertain, breakout to the upside, big selloff to the range low, bounce almost right back again. Tricky trading at best. I think stops would have to be above the HOD and below the range low, to survive those moves.