CL Redux

here are the numbers.

A.P.I Reports ( DJ ) :

Crude: ↗ 6.500 MB

Gasoline: ↘ 3.180 MB

Heating Oil: ↘ 2.800 MB

Refinery Runs: ↗ 1.4 % to 80.9 % vs 79.5 % from a week ago

Crude Imports: ↘ 0.660 K

Estimates (DJ):

Crude: ↗ 1.600 MB. Range: ↗ 700 K to ↗ 2.5 MB

Gasoline: ↔ 0.000. Range: ↘ 1.2 MB to ↗ 1.4 MB

Heating Oil: ↘ 1.000 MB. Range: ↘ 0.400 K to ↘ 1.5 MB

Refinery Runs: ↗ 0.1 % to 79.6 % vs 79.5 % from a week ago

Last Week’s DOE Reports ( DJ ) :

Crude: ↗ 3.035 MB

Gasoline: ↘ 0.900 K

Heating Oil: ↘ 0.600 K

Refinery Runs: ↗ 1.7 % to 81.2 % vs 79.5 % from a week ago

Crude Imports: ↗ 0.535 K

Gasoline Demand: ↗ 0.545 K

Distillate Demand: ↘ 0.125 K
 
Quote from schizo:

Reasons abound as to why this market is bearish going forward, but here are three major, albeit simple, reasons why I think it is:

1) Head-fake around the left shoulder.

2) Dragonfly doji that closed below the line.

3) Hanging man or a long tail following the dragonfly doji with a relatively long wick is an ugly sign.
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Duhh, those are the techinical reasons I should have listed why I think the market is going lower. Sorry bout that.
To give more detail why I was saying that someone is trying to prop up the market is that:
At pit open if you came in flat you would have sold the open trying to take out 8000. There was more money to be made running stops there vs grinding higher all day.
With the logic above that tells me that someone big or many big players did not sell out of their longs in the 8100 area.
 
Quote from schizo:

But numbers alone are meaningless IMO. Isn't there supposed to be whisper numbers that reflects what the street is expecting? Where are you s'pose to get those numbers?
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I have no idea what you're talking about? I'm assuming you meant the street estimate, that's included in the data I posted
 
Quote from Speciaul_K:

Duhh, those are the techinical reasons I should have listed why I think the market is going lower. Sorry bout that.
To give more detail why I was saying that someone is trying to prop up the market is that:
At pit open if you came in flat you would have sold the open trying to take out 8000. There was more money to be made running stops there vs grinding higher all day.
With the logic above that tells me that someone big or many big players did not sell out of their longs in the 8100 area.
More...
My hunch is that ES propped it up in the morning. But now ES is teetering, I ain't so sure CL has anything to fall back on.
 
Quote from owusu:

I have no idea what you're talking about? I'm assuming you meant the street estimate, that's included in the data I posted
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Yes, that was what I meant. I didn't see your post at the time. Hence the need for its deletion. But thanks all the same.
 
Quote from schizo:

Reasons abound as to why this market is bearish going forward...
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Do you have a lower bound for the downside? Im sticking with my 80 as a floor call. I dont think we see a 70handle anytime soon.
 
Quote from spd:

Do you have a lower bound for the downside? Im sticking with my 80 as a floor call. I dont think we see a 70handle anytime soon.
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It was at 7806 last week so 70 handle is not far fetched. I will cover out at 7970-7980 if it doesn't go below that on a spike down.
 
Quote from Speciaul_K:

It was at 7806 last week so 70 handle is not far fetched. I will cover out at 7970-7980 if it doesn't go below that on a spike down.
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Yeah, but it just seemed like there was such a fight to get it above 80. I dont think the bulls will just back down now. We'll just have to see I guess, the tape is the tape.
 
Quote from spd:

Yeah, but it just seemed like there was such a fight to get it above 80. I dont think the bulls will just back down now. We'll just have to see I guess, the tape is the tape.
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It does seem to have a buy on the dips and sell 8180-8190 mentality. Hopefully the bulls will grow tired soon of buying or the market will run out of buyers.
 
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