That garbage around 1:45pm est really pissed me off I was short but got anxious and manually exited. I guess I'll start taking longer lunch breaks. However I have a short strangle working it is working nicely so far (80put, 83call)
CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Here's my own analysis:
1) It's a retest of the high. Stop placed just above 81.
2) Two consecutive long candle tails and that it penetrated above the low of the first tail. Stop below the second tail.
4) It broke above the previous support (now resistance) only to fall right back. The trade was made as it retested the support. Stop placed just above 80.70 area
5) Same as 4, only in reverse. It initially broke below the prior support and then reversed course. Entered long as soon as it came back above the support. Stop placed below this new low, which was consequently hit.
6) Came within a spitting distance from the LOD before reversing. Entered long once the following bar after the LOD was breached. Stop placed below the LOD.
7) It first crossed above the trendline (connecting the dots between 1 and 4), but then came back down, leaving a long wick. Stop placed above the wick.
8) This was a retest of the low made at 2. Stop placed just below that low.
11-10-13) [yellow boxes near 80.50]: This actually coincided with a MAJOR trendline going back for days. But, regardless of that fact, it still coincided with the previous resistance at 7. Sorry for the mess with the numbers.
12) Trenline support between 6 and 8. Stop placed just below the TL.
13) [blue box]: Continuation of the trendline support. Ditto for the stop.
14) Entered short as it broke below and now it's retesting the TL. Stop placed just above the TL.
15) Entered long as it retested the prior low made at 8. Stop placed below the low made at 79.82
1) It's a retest of the high. Stop placed just above 81.
2) Two consecutive long candle tails and that it penetrated above the low of the first tail. Stop below the second tail.
4) It broke above the previous support (now resistance) only to fall right back. The trade was made as it retested the support. Stop placed just above 80.70 area
5) Same as 4, only in reverse. It initially broke below the prior support and then reversed course. Entered long as soon as it came back above the support. Stop placed below this new low, which was consequently hit.
6) Came within a spitting distance from the LOD before reversing. Entered long once the following bar after the LOD was breached. Stop placed below the LOD.
7) It first crossed above the trendline (connecting the dots between 1 and 4), but then came back down, leaving a long wick. Stop placed above the wick.
8) This was a retest of the low made at 2. Stop placed just below that low.
11-10-13) [yellow boxes near 80.50]: This actually coincided with a MAJOR trendline going back for days. But, regardless of that fact, it still coincided with the previous resistance at 7. Sorry for the mess with the numbers.
12) Trenline support between 6 and 8. Stop placed just below the TL.
13) [blue box]: Continuation of the trendline support. Ditto for the stop.
14) Entered short as it broke below and now it's retesting the TL. Stop placed just above the TL.
15) Entered long as it retested the prior low made at 8. Stop placed below the low made at 79.82
Hola.
Only 1 comment that is obvious to me: trade 5 doesn't look at all like trade 4 in reverse. In trade 4 several breaks of previous candle lows happened before trade 4 was entered (market showed weakness) and in trade 5 no strength was shown.
Just what I see that is obvious. I have to study that chart tomorrow, looks like a great approach!.
Only 1 comment that is obvious to me: trade 5 doesn't look at all like trade 4 in reverse. In trade 4 several breaks of previous candle lows happened before trade 4 was entered (market showed weakness) and in trade 5 no strength was shown.
Just what I see that is obvious. I have to study that chart tomorrow, looks like a great approach!.
Quote from schizo:
The second blue BUY box (from the left) is tricky. When that bar was in progress it eclipsed the previous bar to the upside and probably sucked in a lot of longs. But if you waited for the entire bar to complete, it was a very indecisive bar with wicks on both ends and I would wait for further action to choose sides.
The white candle afterwards confirmed the low was in. But the candle afterwards said otherwise.
Here is how it played for me:
I was short then went flat once the white candle completed. When the lower low went in I went short again. Closed it for a loss since it retested the low for about 1-2min then ran up.
losing day for me in the end
Quote from schizo:
Another day I was busy running around. I took no trades today, nor have I watched any prices other than cnbc updates on my blackberry...so this is all hindsight analysis coming from me. Just thought Id be upfront about that.
1. The area where your box is would have been an ideal short. I would not have taken an entry there. The previous bar made a higher high, as did the big red bar you have noted. The double top and strength of the big red bar would have triggered a short from me, but not up at that failed top. I would have entered on the close of that big down bar. So figure I gave away 0.30 on that entry, but I make it point to not pick top or bottoms, have been run over way too many times. Two bars later we have a big down bar, but it closed pretty far off lows, that likely would have shaken me out. Realistic fills for me would have been Short @ .65ish and Cover @ .25ish. Money would have been left on the table but I would still consider that a nice trade for me.
2. Another one where I honestly would have left some money on the table. The bottom was that big hammer, it would be an inviting long since that bar closed so far off its lows. BUT the previous bar was almost identical and price continued lower. In my mind I would be seeing that as bearish momentum that cannot be disregarded. I would have entered long somewhere on that next bar, probably when the big hammers high was taken out, leaving 0.15 on the table. The next down bar would have me a bit nervous, but its low didnt come anywhere near the previous bars low, so I would still consider that longs set-up valid. I would have exited after the big up bar, when the next red bar closed well off highs.
4. Guess ya forgot 3
anyways...Not sure if I would have taken that trade while I was watching those bars form in real time. Its a bit too choppy for me. We have some lower highs, but we also have a big up bar and a higher low. By the time I determined the move down was forreal I would have missed most of it. If I took a trade on that move my short entry would probably be on that 3rd red candle, figure somewhere around .30, I definitely would not have been in the trade up at .60 where your box is. 5. This is textbook example of why I like to wait for some confirmation even if it means I leave some money on the table. We are in the middle of a solid down move, but we have that big hammer showing some appreciable buying pressure. Looks typical of what we see in a bottom. Per my system I would have waited for some more price action. The next bar is a big ole spinning top, which is what I consider an indecision bar, I usually wont enter during indecision. It would have been nice to actually see how that bar formed in real time. Im guessing it was a big red bar that moved higher, then pulled back to the middle of its range. Either way, it didnt take out that hammers high, it made a lower low, and and it closed right in the middle. I wouldnt have taken a trade. I could see why it would be an inviting long, watching a big down bar turn into an up bar.
6. This move might have gotten away from me. I wouldnt have entered on the bar you have highlighted, the bar before it looks bearish to me, so I would have waited for the bar you have highlighted to close. Maybe I would have gotten a little scalp of the next big up bar, but knowing how CL trades, that bar probably shot up with the quickness and there is a good chance it would have blown right past me.
7. That big upper wick you have highlighted would have gotten my attention. I would have waited out that bar for some confirmation since it was part of that up move, next bar is a spinning top, wouldnt have shorted that bar either. The next bar was a nice bearish down bar. Realistic short entry would have been around .15-.20. I would have immediately taken some heat 20cents or so, stop would have been a tick or two above the wick you have you box on. The fact that the massive red bar made a high that took out highs of the previous 3 bars may have very well shaken me out. Thats one of my problems, sometimes I'll get impatient at bail on a trade even if its still a good ways from my stop, I guess Ive seen CL completely reverse on my too many times. Im working on that though as my trades have been coming more consistently profitable, its getting a bit easier to just trust my system. Assuming I stuck with the trade my profit target would have been just under 80even.
8. Big up bar followed by a little inside hammer. My entry would have likely been on the next bar. As it was forming and looked like it would close well off its lows I would have entered long. Figure .20 as a realistic fill. Given the choppy, but more or less down momentum of the day stop would have been a few ticks below the low of that little inside hammer. 2 down bars closing on their lows and making 2 consecutive lower lows might have me bailing on that trade for a scratch or small loss.
11 10 13 Your numbers get a little goofy here lol, but we ran up on resistance at .50 but we got stuck in a range, just chopping around. I wouldnt take any trades. In my experience when CL gets stuck somewhere it seems like my signals for the rest of the day get corrupted and I start giving money back like nobodys business. Id like to think I would have recognized that as it happend in real time and called it quits for the day. Who knows, I may have kept on clicking, possibly making some poor trades, possibly getting a few more winners.
It looks like CL was a real pain in the ass today. How did everyone do? I havent read anyones trades for today.
Forget the right portion of the chart and look only at what has transpired thus far. You would see that the current candle, after making a new LOD, pierced right back above the previous low made at 2. To me that shows strength. Had we one more upthrust, I have no doubt this baby would have shot for the moon. But then again...
Globex closed +.41 since pit. This has the possibilty of making a new high 2morrow. Depends on the jobs report tommorowQuote from schizo:
Forget the right portion of the chart and look only at what has transpired thus far. You would see that the current candle, after making a new LOD, pierced right back above the previous low made at 2. To me that shows strength. Had we one more upthrust, I have no doubt this baby would have shot for the moon. But then again...