CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
worst week in a year! since the first week of 09! I absolutely hate breaks, winter break, spring break any break - they throw me out of sync. Don't get me wrong, I love hanging out with my kids but it always costs me a couple of grand to get back into the swing of things....
anyway, thanks for allowing me to vent. I will be profitable next week.
anyway, thanks for allowing me to vent. I will be profitable next week.
I gave up going long. I only go short.
For you guys going short, are you scalping/day trading, or swing trading?
I'm swing trading...currently long a ton of SCO (since 13.12 or so), but going to be stopped out at 12.20.
Also long a bunch of USO puts. Expiring in Jan though...I might dump those monday...
I don't even want to tell you how much i lost on CL last year. Probably 20% of my portfolio. Almost all in two disastrous short attempts. This offset almost to the penny my gains in the other 3000 trades i made last year...ridiculous.
Maybe its just really bad luck. Both times they said "this is the first time in a decade crude went up x days in a row" or "thats the biggest percentage move for crude in a two week period in a billion years."
I know what i should be doing. Its very simple. Crude desperately, badly, tremendously wants to go up. Eventually the economy actually will recover and its going to run up to ridiculous heights. And until then, people are just going to anticipate that run over and over so its going to stay bullish (unless the economy collapses again).
What i should do is stop fighting the trend and go long. Not now of course because it's way overbought. But when the next dip comes, I should just get long as hell.
But, I can't seem to do this. Crudes current price, based on EVERYTHING, is absolutely ridiculous. What reason is there for crude to be $83 today where it was $69 two weeks ago. If anything the picture has gotten worse.
Crude is going to break me...and then its going to collapse into a little puddle. I already know how this will end.
I'm swing trading...currently long a ton of SCO (since 13.12 or so), but going to be stopped out at 12.20.
Also long a bunch of USO puts. Expiring in Jan though...I might dump those monday...
I don't even want to tell you how much i lost on CL last year. Probably 20% of my portfolio. Almost all in two disastrous short attempts. This offset almost to the penny my gains in the other 3000 trades i made last year...ridiculous.
Maybe its just really bad luck. Both times they said "this is the first time in a decade crude went up x days in a row" or "thats the biggest percentage move for crude in a two week period in a billion years."
I know what i should be doing. Its very simple. Crude desperately, badly, tremendously wants to go up. Eventually the economy actually will recover and its going to run up to ridiculous heights. And until then, people are just going to anticipate that run over and over so its going to stay bullish (unless the economy collapses again).
What i should do is stop fighting the trend and go long. Not now of course because it's way overbought. But when the next dip comes, I should just get long as hell.
But, I can't seem to do this. Crudes current price, based on EVERYTHING, is absolutely ridiculous. What reason is there for crude to be $83 today where it was $69 two weeks ago. If anything the picture has gotten worse.
Crude is going to break me...and then its going to collapse into a little puddle. I already know how this will end.
Why is liquidity so shitty for CL options? Does anyone else short CL and then scalp the QM to the long side? I tried this yesterday and it worked pretty well. By well I mean I broke even instead of losing 2k. I don't even know why I'm short, it seems futile until the fast stoch on daily at least gets below 80. If oil goes to 90 with 10% unemployment here and in Europe the CIA needs to see what hedge funds are run by terrorists as they are funded by high oil prices 
CL Daily
Unfortunately, that's a very naive narrow American way of thinking. Step outside of your country's border.
The explanation is very simple: US dollar is merely a currency of the United States, due to the excessive spending and printing of your government, your currency has devalued significantly.
Another example is Zimbabwe (Frankly, I don't care if I can spell those countries' names correctly), where the government is very busy printing money. The price of oil in Zimbabwe doubles within a week.
To an honest citizen of Zimbabwe, it is outrageous. He angrily protests: "How can the price of oil go up 100% within a week?! Those Arabs are greedy and the hedge funds are speculating the price up. Dick Cheney must be behind all this!"
To us, the honest citizen of Zimbabwe is a very ignorant, laughably stupid person. He doesn't understand that his country's currency is shit, nothing to do with the Arabs or Dick Cheny (the democrats managed to deceive the Americans into thinking that it was Dick Cheny and Bush who were responsible for high oil price. Most American voters cast their votes to democrats due to their traumatic experience with high oil price. But, if they are so stupid and can be fooled so easily, maybe they deserve what they get today. I digressed).
To a person outside the United States, an American complaining about oil price going up is also ignorant and laughably stupid.
To put everything in perspective, we get rid of all countries' paper currencies (including Zimbabwe and US dollars), and use gold to purchase oil. Yes, gold only. If Unites States purchases oil from the Arabs, it must convert its US dollars to gold. Two years ago, you could buy an ounce of gold with 200 US dollars. Today, you must spend over 1000 US dollars to buy an ounce of gold. That's 5 times more. 2 years ago, you spent 30 dollars for a barrel of oil, today you should spend 30x5=150 dollars for a barrel of oil.
Yep, oil should be 150 dollars a barrel today in gold standard. When you pay 80 dollars a barrel, it is a bargain! Be thankful!