Quote from bridenour:
Crudes current price, based on EVERYTHING, is absolutely ridiculous. What reason is there for crude to be $83 today where it was $69 two weeks ago. If anything the picture has gotten worse.
Crude is going to break me...and then its going to collapse into a little puddle. I already know how this will end.
First , allow me to address BPtrader's response. While the price of oil is pegged to the dollar, the consumption isn't only limited to the children of Uncle Sam. The demand for oil consumption is a worldwide phenomenon, the rise mostly coming from China and other emerging markets. In that respect, you would think the freefall of the dollar should be good for other nations. However, that's not the case. This is largely because other nations depend on exporting to USA and in order to produce the goods for their rich neighbor in America they will need to also depend ever more on oil. As such, everything really boils down to American consumption. This is why the price of oil is pegged, for the moment, to the dollar. Until Americans run out of appetite for imports (namely, cheap labor), I doubt gold will replace the greenback.
And as far as bridenour's comment is concerned, his concern wasn't so much about why the general consumers like his neighbors feel ripped off by rising oil prices especially in times of high unemployment but why he's getting killed by fading the rising tide. Macroeconomic reasons aside, he does have a point. I also think it's silly for this market to rise so rapidly. The damn thing goes up when the crude inventory is in shortage; it goes up when the inventory is in excess. It goes up when the dollar rises believing that a fatter wallet will spur spending; it goes up when the dollar dips because that will stimulate exports. Reasons are plenty for why the damn price moves the way it does. I would have hung myself if I had to listen to all those pundits with their sage "after-the-fact" advice.
Let's not forget that the market can remain irrational just to the point you find yourself insolvent. This is particularly true these days when everything is more or less engineered by government interventions. Hence, don't ever fight the tape. Another factor to remember is that there is the so-called precedence that we went up as high as 140 last year. Why couldn't there be another repeat this year? Markets operate in cycles, particularly mental cycles. When you have enough morons that dictate how the markets should be governed, you will have a self-fulfilling prophecy. I kid you not.