CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
If VIX moves above 50 we bounce. Likely more selling at market open as individual investors panic and bail. This will be a bounce that can be traded. Market's not returning anywhere near the recent highs anytime soon though.
ADD: We'll have to look way back to find some support levels tonight.
ADD: We'll have to look way back to find some support levels tonight.
Quote from BCE:
But this reaction to that downgrade is bullshit. Way overdone. Just one agency and they erred IMHO. Warren Buffet says we should be rated AAAA.
Either way, we have had some pretty bad numbers, and the entire bull move up in 2010 was overly optimistic. This is probably in part the market's overall feeling of that as well. How many times have I heard someone talk about how we are way overbought, based on so little fundamentally to back it up? We have just retraced 65% of the entire 2010 and 2011 bull run in 7 or so days. Whatever the case, I don't want to be one of those people who bought all the way down over the last week and today, saying every time "it's oversold, it can't go any farther" .. when it's done selling off it will let us know, with plenty of opportunity to get in if it wants to rocket back up.
I agree markets can be "oversold" or "overbought" for some time. And there are obviously other factors driving this down other than S&P's downgrade. We just trade it. I don't trade, at least I try not to trade, based on what I think will happen next, but try to trade off of what I see now. Trading off of some theory one has as far as what's up in the market can really get you in big trouble. I'm just pointing out the "oversold" realities to be ready for some sort of relief rally which may be short lived. I'm not calling for a near term bottom necessarily.
Also that trade I posted earlier for 72 ticks wasn't reflective of how I trade in general, and I'm lucky actually I didn't get in big trouble with that. Look at the chart again and in my opinion at least this is not the way to go about it. Not in this type of market under so much pressure. Lucky for me it worked out and I made some money.
Those are really good points P. You would have thought treasuries would tank too on the downgrade, but as you're saying they did quite well which points out the real strength in the US and what others around the world think of our financial reality as compared to other places. If people are pulling money out of stocks they need to put it somewhere.
ADD: Missed that one. CL went flying up about 1 point in the last 20 mins. Someone wants to get in early on a possible bounce maybe.
I shorted .24 right after that and closed for +1 foolishly. Should have waited for .80.
Good luck to those holding longs--I wish them the best, but I'd be surprised if they aren't shaken out during globex. 80 flat has not been touched, it would be a good excuse to unload some longs.