CL Redux

Quote from bearmountain:

kid actually posted the diamond pattern, which the narration said usually breaks in the direction of the previous prevailing trend.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2955936
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That makes sense but how to you know when you are "in the midst of a trend" or the top of it? I'm clueless when it comes to these patterns I always just go in the direction of the line that get broken first.

What is up with all these new people? It must be a signal of a top.
 
Quote from riskaddict:

What is up with all these new people? It must be a signal of a top.
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They saw everyone printing money over here :D

I don't think it's a top yet. Look at how price just found support smack at the pullback to the 20-bar EMA on the hourly chart. If it can't find its way back up to 76.77 and break out, then I'd say it's time for you, RA The Master Swing Trader, to short this puppy!

I will play a breakout of 76.77 if it occurs during my regular waking hours. I had my buy stop there earlier for the retest and it failed to break out.
 
Quote from riskaddict:

What is up with all these new people? It must be a signal of a top.
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The last time I thought about trading oil was $147. My brain kept saying something was really wrong. Significant XS liquidity - Hedgies selling cars to pension funds - Back month spreads way out of line in size / depth. I hope that's when all of you got big going short. I looked at it and looked away. In my opinion CL is what tipped the mortgage market over. You all know the land mines out there.
 
Today's trading signal chart. Too many trades ( less confidence in holding).
but direction correct on many trades.

I am working with IB API and Tradestation Easy language for some time trying to create alert engine. With 2 eyes I am limited to only focus on very few things so automated alert engine will alert me of certains conditions.

Last 1 week I just observed the Market without clicking any Buy/Sell button, just to get use to how millions of dollars are exchanged in front of my eyes.
 

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Made a mistake on getting long CL during the dead zone when no one was trading. Set no stop or target, then went to a movie. When I came back, was down around 18 ticks on the trade.

Decided to watch it for awhile, and saw it was going up. So then placed an OCO order, and then watched Bloomberg. Saw EUR going up, ES going, and CL continued to go up. Manually managed the trade, and was able to get out with a 10 tick profit. If I trade late night again, will wait to place trades when it gets closer to Europe morning trading which looks like it gets interesting around 12:10 pm PST.

When I placed trade, market was in a range, I could have also just placed a stop and target for a scalp within this range and gotten out with a profit a long time ago and not go through this draw down, or just placed a breakout trade.

Now looking back on chart, I see where I could have averaged down into this trade, but I don't like trading multiple contracts with CL which can be a beast sometimes.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

They saw everyone printing money over here :D
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Yes, that is what the sign said: 'Easy money This Way'. That is why we all came, I am still waiting for my payout, dry wells so far.

Economic calender for today, fed meeting.

Tuesday Sep 21

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET

Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:15 PM ET
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I will play a breakout of 76.77 if it occurs during my regular waking hours. I had my buy stop there earlier for the retest and it failed to break out.
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I'm looking for a break out above 76.50 once that runs out of steam (below 78)that is when I'll dump these couple of long QMs and then once I get confirmation that 78ish is the lid I'll add to the puts. If we get above 78 I'll just have to feel out the momentum. Current delta is -1350. Its kind of relaxing to expect to lose money on a given day knowing that what I'll make on wed and thurs will eclipse that loss.

Only problem is the DX chart looks horrible the fed needs to be my friend today and say something that will boost the dollar. Have a good day all
 

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