CL Forward Curve

[Trader13]

What's going on with Crude Oil in 2018-19? It looks like it just went haywire.

 

[Deuteronomy_24_7]

Stale prices in some expiries, no doubt. I'm sure you've seen the OPEC headlines.

 

[Trader13]

Stale prices in some expiries, no doubt...

Thanks, I would have expected more from eSignal.

 

[wintergasp]

What's going on with Crude Oil in 2018-19? It looks like it just went haywire.

Half of the contracts in the back of the curve have zero volume, so the exchange makes up a settlement price.

If you only look at volume traded you should see this

 

[Trader13]

Makes sense, thanks.

 

[Deuteronomy_24_7]

="Trader13, post: 4367202, member: 26171"I would have expected more from eSignal.

There are no prices -- those expiries haven't traded. Esignal can't invent trades.

 

[Trader13]

There are no prices -- those expiries haven't traded. Esignal can't invent trades.

You're quite correct! I have to remember this chart shows the last trade price, not the last quote.

This was a good lesson for me. Next time I see a distortion in a fwd curve, it may not be a mean reversion trade opportunity. Just as likely to be a stale print.

 

[JackRab]

Yeah, old prices that's what I thought as well.

Exchanges are shit that way, they should provide better data. When related prices change by a lot, the last traded price isn't reflective of the value anymore in case of no trading.