Surprised some of you dont like the negative or bearish articles I post, I have been posting about this bubble and bust for years on here, I remember when some of you actually laughed at my predictions on the commodity bubble and real estate bubble, I could care less, surprised you would take such offense to the articles I post, its not like the stuff I post is coming from some fantasy land, its actual facts, not my fault its too hard for some you to take in.
As for my trades, I took on 3 trades today, all bearish trades because I know this market is not even done bottoming yet, for any fool who thinks these rallies are sustainable is kidding themselves, these bailouts and liquidity injections as I have been saying for quite sometime now are useless long and short term. Housing is far from bottoming and the economy far from finding another growth spurt.
My predictions are as follows:
Next drop takes the DOW below 7000,
The 2005/2006 ARMS resetting in 2009 and 2010, this will only worsen the housing crisis sending more banks down and homebuilders to file chapter 11. There is approx another $30-$50 billion resetting over the next 3 months while an additional $70-$75 Billion going into 2010. From what I have been reading the average increase in monthly payments will be approx 60-70%.
Unemployment will skyrocket above 10% by the end of 2009 and GDP growth will be -0.5 to -1%.
Housing prices will fall an additional 10-20% by the end of 2009 early 2010 as foreclosures start to peak out probably by early 2010.