Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from trade-ya1:

I'm going long EUR again.
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Neil, I just been thinking the same thing.

You could almost say I'm 100% euro bull... only due to reconsideration I cannot make that commitment.

my only open long euro is @1.2341. I just haven't been able to stay in any lower.

But, your saying to buy in the 1.1800s was good advice!

euro is so oversold right now, and/or USD is so overbought for sure.

does it really warrant a substantial reversal?

though I've been looking for one for weeks, methinketh not.

the reason is, Greenie indicated the USD will have further interest rate hikes.

with the euro having no hikes, or possibly even having a cut, the differential makes less sense buying euro at this level, as the interest paid to hold euro right now wipes out some profits.

however, I am still long euro for sure though I'd like to see something... anything materialize out of the EU for the better.

so far it is like they are just dead in the water.

though, as much as I'd like to think we're heading to the 1.2400s, I think there could be further punishment for the euro, heading even down into the 1.1700s or lower.

jmo.

best,

Sam
 
Quote from illiquid:

How much emphasis do you guys give yield differential for a trade? It would seem you'd need to have very long term trading horizons for that factor to be even a consideration as to whether or not to put on or hold a position, given the volatility of currencies (esp those which have highest rates). I see people saying they're doing this or that because of the added yield they are getting for "holding", but the reward of a 1/2 pip a day or whatever seems inconsequential given the risk.
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I dont really take yield into consideration - it is a plus if I do earn interest.- others I'm sure will differ
 
Quote from illiquid:

Even though chinook doesn't post much anymore, I'll have to say his thread was one of the few fx journals that stayed honest and never degraded into showmanship or other bs (yes, people actually get stopped out here :)). Glad to see you're back posting, looking forward to your thoughts.

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Yeah, beware of some traders (mis)using their blogs (and Moneytec) to post huge profits every day to sell their trading-system to newbies. Their trading names are Soul-Trader and Graeme.
When you have own blog, you can write as you wish. It's OK if you post only winning trades to boost your ego, but it's not OK if you do it as documentation for that your system (for sale for 2300 GBP) is The Holy Grail.
By the way: If you found The Holy Grail in trading, would you sell it?
 
Quote from Wittgenstein:

Yeah, beware of some traders (mis)using their blogs (and Moneytec) to post huge profits every day to sell their trading-system to newbies. Their trading names are Soul-Trader and Graeme.
When you have own blog, you can write as you wish. It's OK if you post only winning trades to boost your ego, but it's not OK if you do it as documentation for that your system (for sale for 2300 GBP) is The Holy Grail.
By the way: If you found The Holy Grail in trading, would you sell it?
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yeah... if I had the Holy Grail in trading I sure wouldn't sell it.

I do however have a system for sale for $500,000,000. :D

I don't know if I'd call it the "Holy Grail."

you think anyone(s) would pay 1/2 a bil for the HG?
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:

yeah... if I had the Holy Grail in trading I sure wouldn't sell it.

I do however have a system for sale for $500,000,000. :D

I don't know if I'd call it the "Holy Grail."

you think anyone(s) would pay 1/2 a bil for the HG?
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Maybe there are money in system-selling than in trading? Now the system-sellers like Soul-Trader can use their blogs to show that their systems make huge profits every day - and who can say that it's not true?
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:

yeah... if I had the Holy Grail in trading I sure wouldn't sell it.

I do however have a system for sale for $500,000,000. :D

I don't know if I'd call it the "Holy Grail."

you think anyone(s) would pay 1/2 a bil for the HG?
More...

Yes, if it made a million per year. But I suppose most (if not all) systems only make profit to the sellers in the long run.
 
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