Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from trade-ya1:

I went in with no position and am unbiased at the moment. I still have no position but will sell a downside break (to get short EUR) but not as willing to go long anymore. As for Yen, what I meant was really pertaining to the chart as an analog to current EUR. Meaning that we had a large trend in Yen ($/Yen to the upside), a big retracement to trendline support in early Oct. '98 (hard to tell your chart is too condensed, like to see June '97-Dec. 99), spent a lot of time hovering around trendline support with the big macro players heavily long $'s/short Yen playing the carry trade (similar to the positioning now, Buffet, Gates, etc.) and we ultimately crashed through trendline support in 2 days, 20+ big figures. Not necessarily predicting this to happen in EUR, however, all I'm saying is that the price action reminds me of the time just prior to Yen cracking the most in history in one-day. I might be nuts. :)
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o.k. now i understand. thanks for the clarification.:)
 
i'm on the sidelines myself right now. i will wait until Sunday night / early Monday morning before begining my next operation.
Maybe in the EUR or the CHF?

Will see how today plays out 1st?:cool:
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

all I'm saying is that the price action reminds me of the time just prior to Yen cracking the most in history in one-day. I might be nuts. :)
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Ah, I hear ya.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Still short. Added to it before trade data, and was glad I did.
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Nice going - we are in for an interesting few days ahead....

Analysts seem to be raising the importance of the retail sales today although I'm doubting it's significance - although a positive number would give the EURO a kick while it's down.

For me the trend line since 2002 has been broken as the 200 day moving average. I'll be looking to sell any rallies.

Looking for a test of 1.2730-00.
 
Still short, although watching it very carefully. If it resists the 1.27 level strongly, then I'll take profit. If not, I'll hold all the way down to 1.2640.

Cheers.
 
Yup I'm expecting a bounce to maybe up to 1.2780 (maybe even a short poke over 28) I'll be adding shorts all the way up at resistance levels for down to 1.25.

Although I shouldn't be getting to cocky... I'll keep a beady eye on proceedings as you are.
 
Good trading, Ivanovich!

I think we'll still see the low area for the rest of the month and june, but staying within this "range" of late since the peak of ATH over 1.36 .

Coming into the mid summer and towards the ebb of the summer I think oil prices and macros will start tightening again on US perceptions with tilting upwards on the EURUSD to new highs.

To me, 1.30-ish still seems to be the psychological flip-flop trigger.

Happy hunting. :)
 
Thanks, Gring. Miss your comments here.

I just closed all EUR trades - 1.2670. I'm out. To me, this is a critical point, not sure we'll see lower than this. If it breaks 1.2660, it'll probably go down to the 61.8% retracement of 1.2490. But I'm not getting in until we see a break below.

Cheers.
 
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