Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

I'm going to be watching the action closely on Sunday night as yesterdays action now seems like a stop cleanning day instead of a continuing downtrend . . .
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

I don't know. But here's what I find rather hilarious:

All those people screaming that the dollar was doomed, and falling into oblivion, and the chicken littles that said 1.40, then 1.50 were coming in Jan...

They're all quiet now. A month ago, you couldn't shut them up. Where'd they all go? What happened to the twin deficits? They're still there. Not a big deal anymore? Just like that?

All those analysts are full of crap.
More...

Maybe they changed their minds?
 
Interesting action here - balance of -$61bln and USD rallies - go figure. Seems like interest rates are taking centre stage at this point and deficits taking the back seat. I would expect a test/break of 1.28 and a test of 1.2730 next. If 1.2730 breaks (although I doubt severly at first attempt) then off to circa 1.2500 which could be quite dramatic.

With the USD rally after a large deficit is only confirmation of some USD strength to come - probably for the next couple of months.

My view - lets see what happens. Any other opinions out there?

Trade-ya I know yours already - although you were quite prophetic a while ago saying you'd stay bullish until 1.2450(I believe) is breached. A test of your resolve might be on the way...

FOMC minutes coming up - lets see if any hawkishness is displayed.

Good luck
 
It's all about rates now. As the Fed continues to hike rates, and the EU does not, that's all the market will care about. Forget the news, forget logic, etc.

Remember the EUR run from last year? People were standing around going "I don't get it, why the hell did the EUR hit a new high after record job growth?"

Once the market gets a thought in it's head - you'd best forget about everything else.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

It's all about rates now. As the Fed continues to hike rates, and the EU does not, that's all the market will care about. Forget the news, forget logic, etc.

Remember the EUR run from last year? People were standing around going "I don't get it, why the hell did the EUR hit a new high after record job growth?"

Once the market gets a thought in it's head - you'd best forget about everything else.
More...

Yup its true - it seems the market only has place for one thought at a time - the market eye(reminds me of the eye of Mordor - Lord of the Rings) seems to switch from single target to single target and we know what it is focused on at the moment....
 
Yeah wouldn't that be nice:)

The action today seems to not quite fit my scenario and looks like EUR is stubbornly holding on. Looks like we are limbo till the release of the retail figures.
 
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