Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Nick,

I still do HVT for the opening 60-90 minutes, but as mentioned earlier I want a scalable business model and HVT, at least in terms of asset management is not going to do it.

While I can manage a portfolio of $25mill in the FX market and not even get noticed, it would be impossible to do the same thing with HVT.

HVT was/is a great foundation for all other types of trading and got me to where I am today.

Stay in touch.
 
saw this on dailyfx site ... that as Euro FX was topping out ...

- short term (1 week) vols rocked higher while medium (3 month) dated vols remained fairly stationary-

what free sites on the net measure FX vols on the majors and crosses?

:)
 
anyone willing to step up to the plate and
buy Euro's now ?

amazing ... how a few days in beg of yr can change the FX landscape

( not the first time either )

lets see how we end the week

:p
 
Quote from SethArb:

anyone willing to step up to the plate and
buy Euro's now ?

amazing ... how a few days in beg of yr can change the FX landscape

( not the first time either )

lets see how we end the week

:p
More...

Yes, I bought in at 1.3175.
 
I noticed the comments here regarding picking up the EUR after this weeks bruising. Below is an excerpt from our daily piece with data courtesy of 4Cast

4Cast did some simple analysis of the value of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY at the end of the preceding year relative to the price levels in the first five days of trading at the beginning of the year, the month of January and then the remainder of the year as a whole. Their findings were interesting.

- EUR/USD price levels in first five days accurately reflected the price levels at year-end on only 3 of the last 10 years. And only on two occasions did the price levels of the first five days reflect the price levels at the end of January.

Interesting, no doubt, but markets are always in flux and a high statistical failure rate does not necessarily prove that this will be the case this year. We will look at the DXC chart below to see if it sheds some different light. Meanwhile, the same parameters, when applied to USD/JPY gave a very different set of results.

- USD/JPY price levels in the first 5 days of trading have predicted the price levels at year end six of the last ten years, while the same ratio was also noted for prices levels at the end of January.

Just some interesting data, nothing more, nothing less.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Yes, I bought in at 1.3175.
More...

I also bought, but got stopped out. I have an entry order in for 3100 to buy now.

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Also, It looks like Oanda lowered the spread for Eur/USD, it's at 1.5 pip now. Don't know if it will remain:

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/spreadstats/spreadsminmax.shtml
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Yes, I bought in at 1.3175.
More...

Happy New Year to all FX Traders (and Chinook for starting a great thread) - may this be a profitable one. I see the people are coming back in drips and drabs

Also tempted, as it seems a good base is forming here at circa 1.3170. Just the volatile nature of NFP tomorrow has me worried. Which could easily push it to 1.30/1.29 and I don't want to be caught on the wrong side!

The question is where do most feel is a good entry point for the next spurt higher.... I'm still thinking lower...lets see.
 
Quote from csaunders:

Just the volatile nature of NFP tomorrow has me worried..... I don't want to be caught on the wrong side!
More...

If this is the case then it is sometimes best to stay out during this time. Imo I don't think it's healthy to worry, and can be damaging to the account as well.

Anything can happen. It's the only known fact, but with a good enough edge it can be easier to accept risk psychologically.

I've been told that if I'm afraid of losing money then I should quit trading.

my two cents
 
Quote from Andy62279:

If this is the case then it is sometimes best to stay out during this time. Imo I don't think it's healthy to worry, and can be damaging to the account as well.

Anything can happen. It's the only known fact, but with a good enough edge it can be easier to accept risk psychologically.

I've been told that if I'm afraid of losing money then I should quit trading.

my two cents
More...

Hi Andy,

Thanks for the input - I feel the risk introduced by NFP it to high to make trades this close - I would rather sit on the sideline till the market has digested the news. I would think most short/meduim Traders would do the same at this point. The range today should be tight.

And agreed - fear introduces all kinds of problems. Although I do not like losing money and most definitely cut my losers quickly.

Of course I'll be trying to make some $ off volatility post the announcement - lets see how it goes... the market hasn't given NFP too much respect the past few months.
 
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