Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Do you get that through email? And where from?
Deutsche Bank today :
Medium-term traders again bet on lower euro
EUR USD (1.3425) The late dip below the $1.34 mark, albeit brief, was the only notable price activity in yesterdayâs otherwise lacklustre session. This morning in Asia, though, the euro was back up to 1.3425. Medium-term traders dropped a bombshell in yesterdayâs EUR-Sentiment Survey. Their responses suggested that this long-suffering group is again taking its chances with short/underweight euro-positions. Effectively, the medium-term crowd is resuming the sceptical stance that it adopted in mid-October when the euro broke out of its sideways consolidation. The consequences of this were devastating, as the group essentially missed out on the entire rally. A fortnight ago, they belatedly rebuilt their europositions to full strength. But the latest survey shows that their hearts were not truly in it; scarcely two big-figures higher than where they previously bought, they have been selling euros once more. We had not expected this behaviour at all. In fact, we had excluded the medium-term crowd from our analysis last week. Now we must go back and review the recent price action to take into account the latest evidence. In this light, Thursdayâs decline, the only sizeable correction of the week, is the most likely place to pin these sales. In this case, these accounts are underwater already. Longterm demand must have been very abundant. Our current target remains 1.3590. Not only do we have stronger than expected long-term demand, we now also have medium-term demand on dips to contend with. Beyond the target level, we would open an additional upside objective at 1.3850. The risk-reward limit to the bullish scenario remains at 1.3330.
Medium-term traders again bet on lower euro
EUR USD (1.3425) The late dip below the $1.34 mark, albeit brief, was the only notable price activity in yesterdayâs otherwise lacklustre session. This morning in Asia, though, the euro was back up to 1.3425. Medium-term traders dropped a bombshell in yesterdayâs EUR-Sentiment Survey. Their responses suggested that this long-suffering group is again taking its chances with short/underweight euro-positions. Effectively, the medium-term crowd is resuming the sceptical stance that it adopted in mid-October when the euro broke out of its sideways consolidation. The consequences of this were devastating, as the group essentially missed out on the entire rally. A fortnight ago, they belatedly rebuilt their europositions to full strength. But the latest survey shows that their hearts were not truly in it; scarcely two big-figures higher than where they previously bought, they have been selling euros once more. We had not expected this behaviour at all. In fact, we had excluded the medium-term crowd from our analysis last week. Now we must go back and review the recent price action to take into account the latest evidence. In this light, Thursdayâs decline, the only sizeable correction of the week, is the most likely place to pin these sales. In this case, these accounts are underwater already. Longterm demand must have been very abundant. Our current target remains 1.3590. Not only do we have stronger than expected long-term demand, we now also have medium-term demand on dips to contend with. Beyond the target level, we would open an additional upside objective at 1.3850. The risk-reward limit to the bullish scenario remains at 1.3330.
Keep hitting myself on the head a little - because of good entries and just a little too weak stomach to hold it for bigger gains; settling for nickles again.
The two-way action is good for my trading but I have to adjust the inside of my head again when markets change conditions and biases all the time.
It is quite turbulent with regards to news. I remember on Bloomberg 1-2 weeks ago they said that come the holiday season a lot of "the sky is fallig"-talk comes out of the woodwork; it sure is escalating. I have been bear US economy for a long time, but I don't think anyone wants to see a crisis, but inaction doesn't exactly try and avoid it either.
Markets haven't been so bad as I though at the end of november, but then there still are some good trades in here.
The two-way action is good for my trading but I have to adjust the inside of my head again when markets change conditions and biases all the time.
It is quite turbulent with regards to news. I remember on Bloomberg 1-2 weeks ago they said that come the holiday season a lot of "the sky is fallig"-talk comes out of the woodwork; it sure is escalating. I have been bear US economy for a long time, but I don't think anyone wants to see a crisis, but inaction doesn't exactly try and avoid it either.
Markets haven't been so bad as I though at the end of november, but then there still are some good trades in here.
Then you're in the same boat as me - my ISP blacks out every now and then. That way I need some good stops when it seems dire and I'm looking for bigger wins.
Any takers on directions ?
I think we'll se a run for the ATH again soon. Just a gut feeling - typically contrarian - just like I do most of my scalps.
Any takers on directions ?
I think we'll se a run for the ATH again soon. Just a gut feeling - typically contrarian - just like I do most of my scalps.
Probably should state the trades for today as my trades show +9 with roughly half of that in commissions. I am jockeying for some shorter term position, but haven't decided which or what entry yet. I will look for close to daily high/low targets , but not risk more than todays winnings.
I will apply pausing if the trades turns successful and it seems I can leverage profits more.
Two entries now for weaker USD.
edit: adjusting the "adaptive stops" into pausing strategy - on +10 for both.
edit2: paused on both.
edit3: new entry at original entry +3 . on JPYUSD that is.
edit4: once again - adaptive stop at +10 on both - only JPYUSD had pause and reentry.
edit5: EURUSD was also paused. will look for re-entry at original +5 - i.e 5 ticks lower than pause - stop will be at original entry - for at least +5 on EURUSD.
edit6: JPYUSD at +10, but looking like pause again.
edit7: JPYUSD paused again. Will wait a little to see this time ...
(+10 on EURUSD +10 on JPYUSD - both paused)
I will apply pausing if the trades turns successful and it seems I can leverage profits more.
Two entries now for weaker USD.
edit: adjusting the "adaptive stops" into pausing strategy - on +10 for both.
edit2: paused on both.
edit3: new entry at original entry +3 . on JPYUSD that is.
edit4: once again - adaptive stop at +10 on both - only JPYUSD had pause and reentry.
edit5: EURUSD was also paused. will look for re-entry at original +5 - i.e 5 ticks lower than pause - stop will be at original entry - for at least +5 on EURUSD.
edit6: JPYUSD at +10, but looking like pause again.
edit7: JPYUSD paused again. Will wait a little to see this time ...
(+10 on EURUSD +10 on JPYUSD - both paused)