Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

I'm starting to feel dizzy and in need of reality-oxygen here on Mt. Olympia again, I was just a little beaten down when I lost on that first real game on www.tradergames.com where roberk plays. Especially when beaten by someone who normally seems to be an waful trader. I was scalping like a champ, and still got beaten. I just resigned and let a contrary position flow - while taking care of my kid instead. Seeing how most of the players I looked at there were terrible forex traders within the game - mostly losing money too - it was just to figure out how the game affected earnings within the very confined time-space - and trade accordingly.

Well, this latest scalp and my latest "hunches" has gotten the ilks from fear of losing out of my system again.

Those are probably nice signals to call it a day.

Hope someone else got a ride on that bullet-train of a rollercoaster too!
 
Quote from FX MENTOR:

... I dont get the exact top nor do i catch the bottom but i do manage to capture a nice portion of the move.:D

i must hold to my guns even if i know that i can do some scalping along the way. it is better to stick to your style.
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Yes, that's what I've been trying to do for my positional trading. I think there are some tweaking possible - like I stated in the "pausing strategy" I applied earlier. However, the positions for that kind of trading happens rarely - at least for me to commit to it.

I do see it as the best way ahead for me - because I can't do scalping like today to earn the big bucks - that would send me to the morgue quickly - either with a failed heart or big holes in my stomach.
 
You guys probably also noted the similar capping of mid and lower 1.3370s when remembering the 1.3350 capping earlier. That made it seem very likely they would do a reverse to try and get it down to below the 50s again. Some running of stops helped them - who knows if they made a killing on it too.

Well, the deficits are the reason for further EURUSD gains, but the high levels, the drum-beats - out of germany especially - and the end of the year makes it a little dubious we'll see easy 1.3400 breaks like we saw the other rocket stages break through.

Also the oil prices slide is taking some of the glacing out of the cakewalk - so at least be careful - although those who got in at yesterday's low dips probably squared before the NFP or possibly reversed at higher levels, and probably were stopped out or similar today.
:D

edit: Just as I remark the capping it jumps a little higher than that .. can't fail on stating the things already past and gone.
:p

edit2: at first take it looks like stop-running - but who knows. It might be some elaborate stairstep-chopping going on.
 
The problem with trading currencies is that there are so many economic and legislative issues that one cant possibly be able to obsorb it all never mind making money form it. Even George Soros admited in the "Alchemy of Finance" that there are some "technical" aspects that can change the landscape at an instant. Not uncomon during periods of "mania's" and irrational exuberance is the fact that the "Facts don't matter! What matters is peoples perseption of the facts. If we can grasp this I think we would all see greater profitability in our accounts come year end.
:)

just my 3 cents worth.:D
 
Alright, I closed out for the weekend. Rather profitable week, too.

Catch you folks on Monday. And it's snowing again here :( Supposed to snow all weekend.
 
Quote from FX MENTOR:

... Even George Soros admited in the "Alchemy of Finance" that there are some "technical" aspects that can change the landscape at an instant.
...
What matters is peoples perseption of the facts.
...
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Yes, I mostly refer to this as "the popular talk" etc. and trying to figure out how it affects conditions.

Just now we did another ATH running stops. Thomson notes that 1.3400 barriers are close and interesting. Sure, the closest magnet is the most interesting one. The go on saying that the big barrier expired yesterday, and only a small strike linked to monday is ahead ..

It seems the big-guns are defending their positions - while possibly more and more will square their positions if uncertainty sets in.

Just goes to show there is a long way down when falling off a mountain cliff - or a perch even. :)
 
Quote from Gringinho:



Just goes to show there is a long way down when falling off a mountain cliff - or a perch even. :)
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The only problem is knowing when we have reached the top of the mountain? The further up we go the dizzier prices become the more volatility increases, then an attempt to take out the new top, then a failure , then another attempt to top but this time lower than the previous 2 tops. then the close below support, then the bottom falls out, then there is an initial reaction and 'denial' that the rally is over so you get a bounce off the support , then the 'smart' $$$ begins to take profit once their indicators start sounding, then the collapse to new lows , then the bear awakens.:eek:
 
After a dip in the pool and a quick lunch, it seems to be surprising if we don't see 1.3400 soon. Some of you who held those thoughts earlier - still there or stopped out on the rollercoaster earlier whipsawing mental stability somewhat ?

I know I couldn't stomach a ride like that for the upside, nor for staying short without a target.

I guess I was taken by the avalanche or the volcano sprout - off from my mountain-top - when talking about closing below 1.3300 today - surprisingly resilient trading instead of the apathy I was expecting. Perhaps some big losers from yesterday ? :)
 
Quote from Gringinho:

After a dip in the pool and a quick lunch, it seems to be surprising if we don't see 1.3400 soon. Some of you who held those thoughts earlier - still there or stopped out on the rollercoaster earlier whipsawing mental stability somewhat ?

I know I couldn't stomach a ride like that for the upside, nor for staying short without a target.
More...

I switched to long a while back. Still holding from 1.3369. I'm trailing but set target at about 30-35 ticks from the market just in case we have quick flip up and tehn flop down as usual.

You're right it's an ugly ride. A small triangle is forming here.
 
I'm getting closer to writing a strategy for Tradestation for trading EURUSD intraday. With its initial crude form, it's breaking even including commissions. Also a problem with Tradestation is that you can't execute (for backtesting purposes) a trade intrabar, you need to wait for the close or next bar. This'll change with the next version which is due soon. This should reduce slippage in the exits. One of the nice tricks is scaling in after a little bit of profit if the price is close to the stop. This way the total risk is minimal. I'm trying to come up with a way of putting a condition for scaling in also when the pullback volume is relatively weak. It's easy to decide about the volume by eyeballing it in real-time but I need to find a clever way of coding it.

Edit: If I can get this going , it'll be my ultimate dream. Especially I'll be able to calculate the risk parameters and drawdown of the system. Then eventually if the system is robust, it can be applied to various instruments.
 
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