Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Now some USDJPY highs started a new wave of pressure ..

US Feds buying feb 2007 to feb 2008 trasuries as well to add reserves - third time this week. Bids due 16:00 - EST I guess.

edit: now oil prices are being accepted by the market as the reason for correcting some ... a nice comment on Bloomberg UK - "next target QM $40 - the avalanche doesn't stop half-way down the mountain."
:D

Very quiet traders today ...
 
Citigroup - the world's biggest forex dealer on Bloomberg breaking news - saying they cut USD forecast .. seeing much more USD weakness. Hahaha :D

They see 1.35 in 3 months I think it was and 1.40 in 12 months. Not every day that a USD downgrade is "breaking news" interrupting normal broadcasting on Bloomberg. Funny it's happening in the middle of a strong USD hike.
:D :D :D

I wonder if the "big cojones" pressing markets earlier around 1.3360 got roasted ?
 
Quote from Gringinho:

...edit3: lower oil prices are paraded as the rationale for the movement. What a crock.
More...

Yesterday too oil went down like crazy but EURUSD moved the opposite way. All these reasons.

I was initially long and got some profits. Then I tried to catch the falling sword and both my arms got cut off :)

Edit: I was working on a new chart set up. And I found something simpler with less charts and but effective in terms of both entry and trailing. Man I got too excited and I was going to try it. Instead I did some impulsive entries. Anyway, now I do have something which I can backtest and hopefully run it as a system.
 
Quote from chinook:

Yesterday too oil went down like crazy but EURUSD moved the opposite way. All these reasons.

I was initially long and got some profits. Then I tried to catch the falling sword and both my arms got cut off :)
More...

This might not be a falling sword - but an avalanche .. they move thousands of tonnes at around 600+ km/h ... :)

In my opinion some big-haired guys were pressing higher, but some sentiment was changing - and the Trichet talk along with the BOJ calling and asking dealers has set it's mark - along with the ongoing QM slide - on top of much stronger than expected oil inventories and a milder winter so far.

Well, first was the latest resistance at 1.3360 and the first slide from ATH earlier which probably tired many traders, while setting a nice play for some. Then when the slide was in effect - people started saying - oh, yes of course - the oil slide ....
:D
 
Quote from Gringinho:

This might not be a falling sword - but an avalanche .. they move thousands of tonnes at around 600+ km/h ... :)
More...

Indeed! I went from +33 ticks to -66 ticks within an hour! Very strange, it feels like I had very hot sex :)

I guess I like S&M :)
 
Quote from chinook:

Indeed! I went from +33 ticks to -66 ticks within an hour! Very strange, it feels like I had very hot sex :)

I guess I like S&M :)
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You should remember to wear your seatbelt - i.e stop limit - at all times and don't push your luck when you get into losing with over-trading. The problem now is that it will settle down - and you can't make up what you lost.

It could take on another slide - but certainly not a bounce. This goes to show - I got it right from the top - but ejected prematurely. Still I didn't try and stick my money in the wrong some - but laid back watching instead.
:)

I don't like those lashes or whipsaws hitting me. I'm pretty straight-forward and easy-going in that respect.

Of course this slide makes my comments about tomorrow's NFP that much truer. It will be a nice one - whatever the number - because market's are looking for excuses; then it's just to make the reasoning beliveable for the masses - i.e simplistic K.I.S.S ...

I hope goldensavage stayed true to his intentions, and did not try and counterplay it with short USD in other pairs ... :)
 
Quote from Gringinho:

You should remember to wear your seatbelt - i.e stop limit - at all times and don't push your luck when you get into losing with over-trading.

The problem now is that it will settle down - and you can't make up what you lost.

It could take on another slide - but certainly not a bounce.
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My excuse for today is messing with different charts. I had several charts to look at and set stops. Anyway, it was costly but at least today I had a good idea and also made tweak in an indicator which I haven't thought before.

You're right after such a move it usually settles downs and perhaps moves up and down 30-40 ticks. It'll be a miracle if it bounces up from here.

Edit: It's bouncing more than 30 ticks from low. I don't expect another slide now.

Man I thought I can't simplify my plan further. But I ended up doing it. Now there's only one kind of entry and one kind of exit only. This might lead to automation too later on.



 
We can always rely on Jamie Coleman at Thomson as the conductor of the septic-rumours:

"Rumours ECB checked rated on way down - Dealers note talk that the ECB checked rates as the EUR started to keel over of it's own accord. It has fallen as low as 1.3238 before pausing for breath. Dealers note liquidation of long-term USD shorts by spec accounts in the last hour. More stops are seen below 1.3230, but bids are eyed at 1.3180."

The guy is a veritable lightning-rod for these kind of rumours when the going get's hot. Unbelievable - in every sense of the word.
 
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