Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
It was an article in a Shanghai newspaper which sparked the rumble in the EURUSD, but it was quickly denied by Chinese officials - saying it was distorted. However, this is still a plausible scenario - although it's any USD bull's worst nightmare. Not that there are many USD bulls left in the world. 
I think we will see how this develops - and at what pace - with increasingly higher pitched complaints from EU businesses.
Come monday maybe we'll see some good action, but these pre-holidays sessions seem to be a forewarning of how it can get during december. Light markets can be much more difficult as the other side of your trades can run the show a little easier.
Always need to consider market conditions when trading, and not every condition favours all types of trading.
Price action can be a little more unreliable now - and come more normal conditions again - so be careful with those overnight trades.
CME Globex forex closes in 45 minutes - 12:15 EST. CME pits close 12:00 EST. Sunday seems to be normal trading.
I think we will see how this develops - and at what pace - with increasingly higher pitched complaints from EU businesses.
Come monday maybe we'll see some good action, but these pre-holidays sessions seem to be a forewarning of how it can get during december. Light markets can be much more difficult as the other side of your trades can run the show a little easier.
Always need to consider market conditions when trading, and not every condition favours all types of trading.
Price action can be a little more unreliable now - and come more normal conditions again - so be careful with those overnight trades.
CME Globex forex closes in 45 minutes - 12:15 EST. CME pits close 12:00 EST. Sunday seems to be normal trading.
I forgot to show the good comments from Deutsche Bank today, but here it is:
Dollar sell-off nears panic proportions
EUR USD (1.3320) Yesterdayâs session was almost a carbon-copy of the previous two. Once again, the single-currency settled at the high of the day. Thus, the scramble to build exposure to the euro continues. After all, who buys at an all-time high, after a strong rally and during a NY holiday, unless they absolutely must? In Asia this morning, news that China has been reducing its US bond holdings helped to spread the panic even further. So far, the peak has been 1.3325. It may have seemed that verbal intervention by European officials made a come-back yesterday as Sinn, the IFO president, and Bofinger, a German political advisor, called for the ECB to intervene. That these comments were reported at all was due to the fact that journalists are scouring the globe from Europe to Australia looking for someone to say something about the dollarâs decline rather than to the pertinence of the source.
However, as we pointed out after Bofingerâs first proclamations on the euro one week ago, such comments can do more harm than good because they encourage those who are at risk from a dollar decline to believe that help is on the way and that they do not need to hedge.
Another upside objective was achieved overnight at 1.3250. But even this level, which was also our medium-term grail, was only able to cap the upside until the end of yesterdayâs session. There was not even any noticeable correction. Thus, we maintain our bullish stance with a target now at 1.3565. Corrections must remain limited within this bullish view. This means that we can set a relatively tight risk-reward limit at 1.3190.
Dollar sell-off nears panic proportions
EUR USD (1.3320) Yesterdayâs session was almost a carbon-copy of the previous two. Once again, the single-currency settled at the high of the day. Thus, the scramble to build exposure to the euro continues. After all, who buys at an all-time high, after a strong rally and during a NY holiday, unless they absolutely must? In Asia this morning, news that China has been reducing its US bond holdings helped to spread the panic even further. So far, the peak has been 1.3325. It may have seemed that verbal intervention by European officials made a come-back yesterday as Sinn, the IFO president, and Bofinger, a German political advisor, called for the ECB to intervene. That these comments were reported at all was due to the fact that journalists are scouring the globe from Europe to Australia looking for someone to say something about the dollarâs decline rather than to the pertinence of the source.
However, as we pointed out after Bofingerâs first proclamations on the euro one week ago, such comments can do more harm than good because they encourage those who are at risk from a dollar decline to believe that help is on the way and that they do not need to hedge.
Another upside objective was achieved overnight at 1.3250. But even this level, which was also our medium-term grail, was only able to cap the upside until the end of yesterdayâs session. There was not even any noticeable correction. Thus, we maintain our bullish stance with a target now at 1.3565. Corrections must remain limited within this bullish view. This means that we can set a relatively tight risk-reward limit at 1.3190.
Ray Attrill director on 4cast on Bloomberg UK right now is scaring the USD funds of mine into EUR again.
I took a shift from EUR to USD with average around 1.30+, but won't change yet. Need to see what next week gives - and possibly range or continued panic.
I totally agree with him that the 3% of GDP deficit that the US had in the eighties resulting in 30% real exchange depreciation - adjusted for inflation - compared to the 5% GDP deficit now with so far only 15% depreceiation in real exchange ... is pretty scary.
Also the fact that it makes sense for Russia, China to better adjust their reserves into what better reflects their trading partners also is sensible. The fact that doing so deteriorate the reserves even further is something that needs careful consideration.
It seems the Bush administration's greenspan light for USD weakness and burdening the EU and other economies is going to make some real changes.
The sensible thing is for some correction, but we're not seeing the signs of any such action as of yet.
I took a shift from EUR to USD with average around 1.30+, but won't change yet. Need to see what next week gives - and possibly range or continued panic.
I totally agree with him that the 3% of GDP deficit that the US had in the eighties resulting in 30% real exchange depreciation - adjusted for inflation - compared to the 5% GDP deficit now with so far only 15% depreceiation in real exchange ... is pretty scary.
Also the fact that it makes sense for Russia, China to better adjust their reserves into what better reflects their trading partners also is sensible. The fact that doing so deteriorate the reserves even further is something that needs careful consideration.
It seems the Bush administration's greenspan light for USD weakness and burdening the EU and other economies is going to make some real changes.
The sensible thing is for some correction, but we're not seeing the signs of any such action as of yet.
"CME Globex trading in foreign exchange and interest rate products closes at 12:15 p.m."
http://www.cme.com/about/press/cn/04-176ThanksgivingSchedule10558.html
Anyone know why it doesn't close, or when it closes. Would be kind of useful.
http://www.cme.com/about/press/cn/04-176ThanksgivingSchedule10558.html
Anyone know why it doesn't close, or when it closes. Would be kind of useful.
Quote from Gringinho:
"CME Globex trading in foreign exchange and interest rate products closes at 12:15 p.m."
http://www.cme.com/about/press/cn/04-176ThanksgivingSchedule10558.html
Anyone know why it doesn't close, or when it closes. Would be kind of useful.
That's central time. It should close in 1 minute.
I dunno, I think Monday and Tuesday might see a slight correction. Lots of investment banks have their year end this month, and they'll be looking to cash out and take profits rather than trying to go long and risk rocking the boat. After that, of course, it'll be back to the stampede, as the only real level of resistance (outside of a few technical ones) is the psych level of 1.35. And you know the market wants that. It can feeeeeel it.
So again, I think Monday will dip a bit back to 1.32, but that's just another point for everyone to stock up on Christmas Euro
Whatdya think?
Anybody alive?
I am long from 53 on the 10:10 5 min bar.
I am long from 53 on the 10:10 5 min bar.