Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Well, there is a 200+ lot with "a purpose". They cap the bid or ask side, and earlier in the session just kept going - feeding off small hits. Just after 1.32 was breached, it was like the mouths of hell were opened .. and a storm downwards with the 200+ mounted on his dark horse wielding his fiery sword - but all that is forgotten now. It just seems that the big chopping was done by that one bloke ...
I almost got inspired by the Silmarillion there (Tolkien).
Still, without the Globex terminal, some second guessing and volume action can be read from the tape. I am a tape-reading scalper in essence, so this kind of stuff interests me. If I stay long enough with futures to get me a Globex terminal and trader id's it would be easier - but in this thin market - it's pretty transparent.
Market has eased off a little now, and perhaps will get tradeable without piggy-backing the "black rider".
I almost got inspired by the Silmarillion there (Tolkien).
Still, without the Globex terminal, some second guessing and volume action can be read from the tape. I am a tape-reading scalper in essence, so this kind of stuff interests me. If I stay long enough with futures to get me a Globex terminal and trader id's it would be easier - but in this thin market - it's pretty transparent.
Market has eased off a little now, and perhaps will get tradeable without piggy-backing the "black rider".
The problem with trading the EURUSD right now is that it is so thin and transparent that you need to go for very small and quick tagets when there is some price-action momentum, otherwise you will get chewed up easily by whoever is on the other side. They can easily cap a level - blocking off re-entry - taking hits while doing so - and reversing the pressure to see if they got the opponents scared into folding.
At least it's not like when the marketmaker was keeping a constant 3-5 tick spread during most of the night. Then it was pretty much futile to try in my opinion, and anyone trying would probably come out losing.
I am not sure if this has been an increasing tendency the last weeks or so ...
There seems to be some kind of deal going on with the mid 80s, though. This always triggers a push now by the 200-lot. It's obvious that size is being used to it's pressuring advantage - and not for real bidding/asking.
That's the same thing that ruined ES trading in my opinion - but on a larger scale of course. It became so bad with all the spoofing that it was not worth trading anymore.
The concept is to use size only to scare the other side, and pressure them into folding their trades with a loss, not using size to show real offers or bids.
The EuroFX is not that bad yet though, so it's just to be aware and try and get the hang of it. If you have traded the ES or similar lately you know all too well how it is. In the end it will ruin things for everyone though, with more stalemates, big order flashing and less money to be made for those not keeping up with more efficient demands.
There is the USDJPY alternative or the two-legged EURJPY, but the Yen seems to have fallen asleep a little.
It would be interesting to see if they stopped capping 1.3185 or could breach 1.32 for some real moves. For now it seems to be a chop-shop in the 85-95 range ...
At least it's not like when the marketmaker was keeping a constant 3-5 tick spread during most of the night. Then it was pretty much futile to try in my opinion, and anyone trying would probably come out losing.
I am not sure if this has been an increasing tendency the last weeks or so ...
There seems to be some kind of deal going on with the mid 80s, though. This always triggers a push now by the 200-lot. It's obvious that size is being used to it's pressuring advantage - and not for real bidding/asking.
That's the same thing that ruined ES trading in my opinion - but on a larger scale of course. It became so bad with all the spoofing that it was not worth trading anymore.
The concept is to use size only to scare the other side, and pressure them into folding their trades with a loss, not using size to show real offers or bids.
The EuroFX is not that bad yet though, so it's just to be aware and try and get the hang of it. If you have traded the ES or similar lately you know all too well how it is. In the end it will ruin things for everyone though, with more stalemates, big order flashing and less money to be made for those not keeping up with more efficient demands.
There is the USDJPY alternative or the two-legged EURJPY, but the Yen seems to have fallen asleep a little.
It would be interesting to see if they stopped capping 1.3185 or could breach 1.32 for some real moves. For now it seems to be a chop-shop in the 85-95 range ...
Sure, it's how I have interpreted some of the action I see sometimes.
I watch the bids and the asks change in the orderbook of the EuroFX, and what kind of sells that go through. I also have some small "pattern indicators" or "signals" which helps me interpret the "action". Sometimes, like during US regular trading hours, that is a good help. Someday I might get something useful for an automated system as well, maybe ...
The void of the 200+ lot at times, then the apperance on "triggers" - i.e sells of some size - like the 20-30-ish I mentioned makes it pop back up on the opposite side and start nibbling opposite and thereby reversing movement a little.
Other times it aggressively follows spot rates - but with a sizeable in front as buffer.
I know this is normal market action as well, but sometimes pressure is exerted by the bigger size, and the removal of size on the other side. It's not like they try and get a buy for these 200+ contracts - they just use them to move the market - intimidating it really.
According to Thomson, even some from the IFO institute are starting to say that now, today would be an appropriate time to do something.
I think politicians are wussies and can't really do anything, but if more "experts" starts lobbying - today would make a little more than a scratch ... The underlying trend is little to do about for now, but showing the capability of action is also important.
It was Herrn. Sinn from german IFO institute saying that.
I would of course also like to see a more capable european economy, because the hammering with the very fast EURUSD rise is not healthy for anyone, and will make a great impression on corporate earnings come next presentation round.
The US should get some more control over it's own deficit instead of spilling their problems over on the other economies, putting extra pressure on them. Better fiscal policy, and less dependency on foreign investments is a lot healthier. I don't particularly like the "burning bright future" of exchange rates getting out of control.
The EURUSD feeds itself right now, with irrational moves - spurred by breaking more and more barriers. Is there a stop to this - well, the effects will start to show, and someone need to act. Strangely enough there are little IMF comments right now, but the USD is not getting into the latin-american style of devaluation yet.
With the current paralysis of the EU, John Snow and Bush can just laugh and say they are all for a strong USD policy. But there is no logic in hurting your biggest trading partners too much, because to get out of the deficit mess in the end, you need capable trading partners who will buy your exports ... and the US will have more difficulties competing in the asian market, so europe should be their biggest concern to get going - not kicking them when they're already all the way down - like with germany and a steady 9% unemployment rate. That's no good.
I do think some of the arguments here are starting to get more and more resonance in popular talk - but that does not change markets by itself.
I think politicians are wussies and can't really do anything, but if more "experts" starts lobbying - today would make a little more than a scratch ... The underlying trend is little to do about for now, but showing the capability of action is also important.
It was Herrn. Sinn from german IFO institute saying that.
I would of course also like to see a more capable european economy, because the hammering with the very fast EURUSD rise is not healthy for anyone, and will make a great impression on corporate earnings come next presentation round.
The US should get some more control over it's own deficit instead of spilling their problems over on the other economies, putting extra pressure on them. Better fiscal policy, and less dependency on foreign investments is a lot healthier. I don't particularly like the "burning bright future" of exchange rates getting out of control.
The EURUSD feeds itself right now, with irrational moves - spurred by breaking more and more barriers. Is there a stop to this - well, the effects will start to show, and someone need to act. Strangely enough there are little IMF comments right now, but the USD is not getting into the latin-american style of devaluation yet.
With the current paralysis of the EU, John Snow and Bush can just laugh and say they are all for a strong USD policy. But there is no logic in hurting your biggest trading partners too much, because to get out of the deficit mess in the end, you need capable trading partners who will buy your exports ... and the US will have more difficulties competing in the asian market, so europe should be their biggest concern to get going - not kicking them when they're already all the way down - like with germany and a steady 9% unemployment rate. That's no good.
I do think some of the arguments here are starting to get more and more resonance in popular talk - but that does not change markets by itself.
Can't stop profits ...
1.3208 new high again - now it's on !
1.3224 and it is not even looking back.
I guess some have their own idea of holiday intervention ..
edit:
It's like - a thousand contracts around 1.3228 right now ... but still no sizable hits on the bid side ... amazing.
It can just keep on going like this, with very thin volume actually trading the futures.
1.3208 new high again - now it's on !
1.3224 and it is not even looking back.
I guess some have their own idea of holiday intervention ..
edit:
It's like - a thousand contracts around 1.3228 right now ... but still no sizable hits on the bid side ... amazing.
It can just keep on going like this, with very thin volume actually trading the futures.
I feel a lot safer commenting this than trading this, because of my bias of course. I am looking at some temptation for a position here, and Thomson notes some offers around 1.3230 .. but in this soggy-bottomed barrier-defenders I don't know if anything is safe, so perhaps better let those who know what they want play themselves. Beats losing any day.
It will be on my demo spot again - that way I get at least a little satisfaction, although I'm not gaining a dime in real life on the trade - perhaps not on the demo account either. It took a little hit earlier, but I don't trade it too big today, because who knows where this will go when I go for a beer or something.
It will be on my demo spot again - that way I get at least a little satisfaction, although I'm not gaining a dime in real life on the trade - perhaps not on the demo account either. It took a little hit earlier, but I don't trade it too big today, because who knows where this will go when I go for a beer or something.