If we see a weakening of USD overall - with USDJPY below 103.15 - then a real EURUSD bounce will get much more credible. But until then, the EURUSD will continue to be volatile, I think.
EURJPY doesn't look all that bullish to me yet, considering trend channel last weeks, or months even.
edit:
from Thomson this morning -
[08:07 EUR/USD: A Deeper Correction Ahead If 1.2940 Breaks] London, November 23: The markets are pondering the likelihood of a deeper correction in [EUR/USD] this morning and we now feel that if 1.2940 is broken on the downside then bullish sentiment would be dampened in the short-term. 1.2975 was hit overnight as a Tokyo holiday affected market saw decent two-way actions. Some had expected to see a thin market but with the US out for "Thanksgiving" on Thursday and Friday we are now seeing the trading week being squeezed into what remains. Stops tripped on the dip back below 1.2990 and larger stops will be neutralized on a slip to below 1.2950 but at present they do not look in danger. Intraday early numbers showed German 3Q GDP at 0.1% Qtr/Qtr and 1.3% Yr/Yr. The drag on growth came from net exports, as exports plummeted -1.1% over the quarter while imports jumped 4.3%. Buyers are this morning touted as being below 1.3000 at 1.2990 and below 1.2960. The charts this morning suggest that we are in for a longer period of consolidation before we see the pair move higher to retest the historic highs. Further Eurozone data is due at 08:30 GMT in the form of Italian Trade numbers and 09:00 GMT with EZ New Industrial Orders likely to be EUR negative if the consensus -0.1% is released. Option talk this morning only finds further 1.3000 and 1.3050 expiries later today at the NY cut with the 1.3100 barrier that rolls off Friday now touted to trigger a EUR25Mn payout if triggered. Offers currently seen 1.3015/20.
EURJPY doesn't look all that bullish to me yet, considering trend channel last weeks, or months even.
edit:
from Thomson this morning -
[08:07 EUR/USD: A Deeper Correction Ahead If 1.2940 Breaks] London, November 23: The markets are pondering the likelihood of a deeper correction in [EUR/USD] this morning and we now feel that if 1.2940 is broken on the downside then bullish sentiment would be dampened in the short-term. 1.2975 was hit overnight as a Tokyo holiday affected market saw decent two-way actions. Some had expected to see a thin market but with the US out for "Thanksgiving" on Thursday and Friday we are now seeing the trading week being squeezed into what remains. Stops tripped on the dip back below 1.2990 and larger stops will be neutralized on a slip to below 1.2950 but at present they do not look in danger. Intraday early numbers showed German 3Q GDP at 0.1% Qtr/Qtr and 1.3% Yr/Yr. The drag on growth came from net exports, as exports plummeted -1.1% over the quarter while imports jumped 4.3%. Buyers are this morning touted as being below 1.3000 at 1.2990 and below 1.2960. The charts this morning suggest that we are in for a longer period of consolidation before we see the pair move higher to retest the historic highs. Further Eurozone data is due at 08:30 GMT in the form of Italian Trade numbers and 09:00 GMT with EZ New Industrial Orders likely to be EUR negative if the consensus -0.1% is released. Option talk this morning only finds further 1.3000 and 1.3050 expiries later today at the NY cut with the 1.3100 barrier that rolls off Friday now touted to trigger a EUR25Mn payout if triggered. Offers currently seen 1.3015/20.
