Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
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Quote from trade-ya1:
What's all this emphasis on the TIC data? Did it really move the markets last time it was released? Honestly, it is not something that I have ever really focused on and I personally don't expect it to be a huge market mover either way. That's not to say that the market won't move today because clearly it is possibly setting up for a big day across the inevitable 1.3000. I just don't think that it will move specifically as a result of the TIC data. I was away for a few days, glad to return to a nice marketI did take a loss yesterday however.
It looks like market moved up 25-30 pips after the last TIC release. I don't have much experience with it either.
Quote from trade-ya1:
What's all this emphasis on the TIC data? Did it really move the markets last time it was released? Honestly, it is not something that I have ever really focused on and I personally don't expect it to be a huge market mover either way. That's not to say that the market won't move today because clearly it is possibly setting up for a big day across the inevitable 1.3000. I just don't think that it will move specifically as a result of the TIC data. I was away for a few days, glad to return to a nice market
I had thought (read: guessed) that the massive concern on everyone's yapping (via news about dollar's decline) was regarding the current account. If today's TIC number comes in relatively high, it shows that the US is still maintaining a good amount of external investment to fund a high deficit. Yes, I know. The deficit is the underlying problem - but that's why I asked regarding TIC, thinking a really good number would help the dollar, and a really bad one would cause more weakening.
Aside - a interesting bit read from Deutsche Bank Analysis for Today:
EUR USD (1.2930) Monday was a very quiet session. After flirting
with its recent high in early trade, the euro gradually lost ground and hit a
low in NY of 1.2920.
The single-currencyâs continued stickiness around the $1.30 level seems to
have remained a source of hope for medium-term traders. For almost a
month, they have simply refused to buy the euro as it has trundled from
one new high to another. Yesterdayâs EUR-Sentiment Survey* revealed
that last week was no exception. Indeed, optimism even slipped fractionally
among this group; it now stands at its lowest level since mid-July and at its
second lowest level of the year. Thus, although they were well prepared for
the euroâs break out of its sideways consolidation, their rush to secure
profits has meant that they subsequently missed out on 3%-4% of the rally.
They are probably waiting now for a deep correction that allows them to
step back in. Last weekâs retreat was either too shallow or too quick for this
purpose. Hence, we anticipate their demand only starting at 1.2805.
Short-term players also share the conviction that the euroâs advance is
close to completion and have been playing the short side. Their profittaking
bids will appear much sooner however. Whilst the price remains
above 1.2875, therefore, we will adhere to our latest 1.3110 target. As
before, once the previous 1.3005 summit is overtaken, the ensuing short
squeeze would permit us to tighten this downside limit to 1.2920.
EUR USD (1.2930) Monday was a very quiet session. After flirting
with its recent high in early trade, the euro gradually lost ground and hit a
low in NY of 1.2920.
The single-currencyâs continued stickiness around the $1.30 level seems to
have remained a source of hope for medium-term traders. For almost a
month, they have simply refused to buy the euro as it has trundled from
one new high to another. Yesterdayâs EUR-Sentiment Survey* revealed
that last week was no exception. Indeed, optimism even slipped fractionally
among this group; it now stands at its lowest level since mid-July and at its
second lowest level of the year. Thus, although they were well prepared for
the euroâs break out of its sideways consolidation, their rush to secure
profits has meant that they subsequently missed out on 3%-4% of the rally.
They are probably waiting now for a deep correction that allows them to
step back in. Last weekâs retreat was either too shallow or too quick for this
purpose. Hence, we anticipate their demand only starting at 1.2805.
Short-term players also share the conviction that the euroâs advance is
close to completion and have been playing the short side. Their profittaking
bids will appear much sooner however. Whilst the price remains
above 1.2875, therefore, we will adhere to our latest 1.3110 target. As
before, once the previous 1.3005 summit is overtaken, the ensuing short
squeeze would permit us to tighten this downside limit to 1.2920.
This is from www.forexnews.com:
Tomorrowâs PPI data for October is expected to have jumped to 0.6% from 0.1% but the core rate is seen slowing to 0.1% from 0.3%. Should we see a figure of at least 0.5% in the headline and above 0.2% in the core then one could expect some dollar strength and an opening towards a December tightening. If the capital flow data show a figure below $55 billion, then traders should expect renewed dollar selling and a more durable euro stance above the $1.30 level. Only a number of at least $60 billion could help stabilize the dollar erosion.
edit: Either way I'm getting slightly more confident to play dollar positive news due to the stalling over the last few days although I would be much more comfortable going with the EUR. Any recent dollar rally has been summarily reversed (aggressively) and left many (including myself) out of money.
This is why I was asking about everyone's thoughts on the TIC:
From Fxstreet:
"Last month the bearish TICS report was the prime catalyst behind euroâs 500 point rally as fear spread that US would be unable to manage its ballooning Current Account deficit. If the TICS data shows third consecutive decrease in capital inflows, the news would almost certainly hurt dollar bulls. However, September saw a strong bounce in Fed custody holdings and indirect bidding in US Treasury auctions. If the TICS report surprises to the upside the dollar could stage a long overdue counter trend rally, especially if price fails yet again to hold the psychologically important 1.30 level thus establishing a near term triple top in the pair. "
From Fxstreet:
"Last month the bearish TICS report was the prime catalyst behind euroâs 500 point rally as fear spread that US would be unable to manage its ballooning Current Account deficit. If the TICS data shows third consecutive decrease in capital inflows, the news would almost certainly hurt dollar bulls. However, September saw a strong bounce in Fed custody holdings and indirect bidding in US Treasury auctions. If the TICS report surprises to the upside the dollar could stage a long overdue counter trend rally, especially if price fails yet again to hold the psychologically important 1.30 level thus establishing a near term triple top in the pair. "
LMAO
"long overdue counter trend rally" ....
Well, that's in their dreams.
The double deficit is growing - not completely out of control - but national debt caused by this megalomania could increase by around $3 trillion - from $7 trillion to $10 trillion over the next decade with Bush on this current track.
That's not so pretty, if you ask me. And trying to get away with saying it's low relative to GDP with nominal USD is just baloney - it's how long it takes to pay it down with GDP that matters.
(see http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/ )
It will be nice to see what payouts to retired people will be like some decades from now ...
Good luck to all of us scalping in the release-havoc ...
.. but muted reactions. Got to be a little more careful then, still ⬠continues strong.
Thomson of course cites this as the ⬠"easing off the highs" ...
It's still smack middle in the range for the last hours when I look at the charts, but everyone's entitled to call it however they want. We're going into lows around the low 60s now, but still no reaction when they posted their tidbit.
"Social engineering" I call it again. â¬$ will probably get a wider range now - although we're closer to the 1.30-ish barriers than the 1.2900-ish barriers right now.
EU comments on ⬠levels will probably get the center stage in popular talk again. Interestingly the comments are not all negative - e.g as the austrian minister .
Also, let's hear what the Fed district bank presidents has to say today and tomorrow. One spoke 08:45 EST already - but saw no notices on that one; TIC was in focus.
I guess the PPI was the wet blanket as corporate earnings still will continue in focus - seeing if consumers will be taking a hit because of it.
Thomson of course cites this as the ⬠"easing off the highs" ...
It's still smack middle in the range for the last hours when I look at the charts, but everyone's entitled to call it however they want. We're going into lows around the low 60s now, but still no reaction when they posted their tidbit.
"Social engineering" I call it again. â¬$ will probably get a wider range now - although we're closer to the 1.30-ish barriers than the 1.2900-ish barriers right now.
EU comments on ⬠levels will probably get the center stage in popular talk again. Interestingly the comments are not all negative - e.g as the austrian minister .
Also, let's hear what the Fed district bank presidents has to say today and tomorrow. One spoke 08:45 EST already - but saw no notices on that one; TIC was in focus.
I guess the PPI was the wet blanket as corporate earnings still will continue in focus - seeing if consumers will be taking a hit because of it.