Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Interesting news from Thomson:

"Resistance at 1.2985/05 is proving tough, with four daily attempts stalling
here. Daily studies remain overbought, but a break of uptrend line support at
1.2915 and the Nov 10th low at 1.2850 is needed to suggest that the primary
uptrend is ready for a major correction. Daily MACD studies are crossing at
highly overbought levels and flag caution for bulls. (ams)"


and then another article:

23:53 EUR/USD: Easing Back As USD Strikes Bid Tone In Early Asia] Sydney,
November 16: The EUR/USD is edging below 1.2940 on the back of a firming
USD/JPY. There are option related EUR/USD bids stacked between 1.2900/20 from
the same entity that is protecting a 1.3010 option barrier. The bids and the
fact that Treasury TIC data is out later today should limit the EUR/USD downside
in the immediate-term.
Technical analysts note that there is a warning sign brewing in the daily MACD
readings. The MACD lines have started to cross lower from very high levels and
when this has happened in the past it has resulted in nasty corrections lower.
The EUR/USD trades 1.2933/38
 
Quote from Gringinho:

That's what I do too - just that I check the price-action in the book etc. So I get a little more finer grained time frame than you. But my "position" is also not of such a long time frame - maybe less than 6 hours or 12 hours, before the target could get hit. If we had a day or several days of tight ranges it would of course extend without hitting the stop.

Otherwise the check-ups you do are similar to what I do, and I think they are always prudent when "something happens".
More...

I trade (okay.. I attempt to trade lol) the spot market so I'm not able to check the depth of the book and I'm no where near big enough to be able to talk to a trading desk who might have this info.

At this point, I'm still trying to figure out what works and what doesn't; the best way for me to approach things, etc. I can say I'm on the path, but I know I'm not there just yet. Hopefully some day.
 
Quote from fandelem:

Interesting news from Thomson:
...
23:53 EUR/USD: Easing Back As USD Strikes Bid Tone In Early Asia] Sydney,
November 16: The EUR/USD is edging below 1.2940 on the back of a firming
USD/JPY. There are option related EUR/USD bids stacked between 1.2900/20
...
More...

I was just going to write a post about that "news item".

My response to that "news" was smirking - then "what a load of cr*c!"

Take a look on the charts. What on earth is "firming up" the USDJPY here at the lows ?!?
I would say it strengthens EURUSD with USDJPY back at these low levels .. but I still must see market reactions to this "piece of ... news".

It smells like "social engineering" tactics to me. :D

edit: I'm close to getting stopped out - but not yet. Still this shows the beauty of my situation: I'm still with almost all of the maximum profits within the timeframe I was in for the first part of the trade. So this is making me much stronger with regards to accepting getting stopped out - it's like getting stopped out a few ticks below the top.

edit2: The stupid thing would be adding to this trade now - at more or less the same level of my entry - because of strong convictions. There is nothing wrong in taking a scalping "side-trade" in my opinion, but letting the same rules govern it as the the position trade is folly.
 
Quote from SteveL91:

I trade (okay.. I attempt to trade lol) the spot market so I'm not able to check the depth of the book and I'm no where near big enough to be able to talk to a trading desk who might have this info.
...
More...

Consider the Thomson news service with FXCM, RefcoFX or on www.ifrmarkets.com which at least gets you some information like this - albeit not always reliable - just like with the trading desks. You got to sift through the bullsh*t and get what it means in markets.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Consider the Thomson news service with FXCM, RefcoFX or on www.ifrmarkets.com which at least gets you some information like this - albeit not always reliable - just like with the trading desks. You got to sift through the bullsh*t and get what it means in markets.
More...

I wasn't aware that RefcoFX offers the Thomson news service. As I trade through them, I'll need to check it out as I like their reports.

Thanks,
Steve
 
I was stopped out there with a -7 loss on those +25 earlier. Not too bad considering ... :)

edit: Hahaha, now Thomson says that USDJPY may have "hit a ceiling" already at 105.44 . The nerve ...
 
Quote from SteveL91:

I wasn't aware that RefcoFX offers the Thomson news service. As I trade through them, I'll need to check it out as I like their reports.

Thanks,
Steve
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Check out the "news plugin download".

edit: I'm re-entering - ready to yell "foul!"
 
Right now the chart isn't that pretty-looking, but it's coincided with asian session open. Maybe this triggered the options-related offers reported around 1.2900-1.2920 ...

Thomson says the same guys have the range by the curlys with the 1.3010 barrier too.

edit: it looks spiffier now, and I got in at my initial entry again. I'm not sure how to treat this situation. Hope I get some time to reflect over this.

edit:It felt like a scalp, so I profited as a scalp - offsetting the stop out a little. Will look at the initial conditions for the analysis again.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Check out the "news plugin download".

edit: I'm re-entering - ready to yell "foul!"
More...

Got it downloaded and I'm playing around with it now. Another toy to play with! :D

Thanks!
 
Quote from SteveL91:

Got it downloaded and I'm playing around with it now. Another toy to play with! :D

Thanks!
More...

Check out the "order flow" tab for some "rumoured bids and offers" from the desks. Then the rest are "news items".

One cannot complain about downward pressure right now for the €$, the options down there are perceived as the likelier target than the 1.3000s still.
:)

edit: going on 1.2920 didn't seem to trigger anything on either bid or ask .. so I guess there was an element of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) tactics here.
 
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