Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Let's just not see the same big-pendulum 200-tick swings as last wednesday and the friday before that indicating options-related smart setups being triggered.
I much prefer some trending triggers now, with real buying or selling starting. I do think that buying would still be the sane medium-, long-term strategy though, but of course not at any price-level ...
edit: Trying to get my trading together, I am long positioning on my demo spot account from here (1.2939 ask).
Quote from TRADERguy:
Same for me except I worked the long side. A bunch of trades later I've given back my profits and feel relieved to be at break even. Hopefully we will have a better day tomorrow and PPI will be kind to both of us.
Cheers,
TRADERguy
Well, I tried to mix in some longs too and I made it worse
There's a downtrend channel with about 40 pip wide amplitude. As Gringinho suggested it was a day for taking profits fast. I was mostly waiting for a smoother trend to develop.
Thomson: (take it with a grain/dose of salt ;o)
[16:43 EUR/USD: Gathers Footing As Support Holds] Boston, November 15: 1.2935
managed to contain the latest EUR/USD dip and prompt a rebound to the familiar
1.2950 level. The oil plunge has abated, helping sap the dollar rebound of its
strength. Look for more 1.2935/75 trading to contain the action this afternoon.
Asian names are rumored on top. Stops are seen as close as 1.2920 on the
downside but bids are spotted from 1.2905.
[16:43 EUR/USD: Gathers Footing As Support Holds] Boston, November 15: 1.2935
managed to contain the latest EUR/USD dip and prompt a rebound to the familiar
1.2950 level. The oil plunge has abated, helping sap the dollar rebound of its
strength. Look for more 1.2935/75 trading to contain the action this afternoon.
Asian names are rumored on top. Stops are seen as close as 1.2920 on the
downside but bids are spotted from 1.2905.
I also took a EuroFX position a little more than an hour ago, but at least this time I have put in a OCA stop (a little above my entry) and a OCA target - modestly high of around 50 ticks. I hope I'll be able to let it "run" without succumbing to the "gotta get out NOW"-feeling at some point where I would be looking at the orderbook.
Well, if it get's stopped out it doesn't matter much - as it will still be profitable - and the position is small anyways.
It all makes me think:
Kraftwerk and The Robots ...
We're charging our battery
And now we're full of energy
We are the robots
We are the robots
We are the robots
We are the robots
We're functioning automatic
And we are dancing mechanic
We are the robots
We are the robots
We are the robots
We are the robots
Well, if it get's stopped out it doesn't matter much - as it will still be profitable - and the position is small anyways.
It all makes me think:
Kraftwerk and The Robots ...
We're charging our battery
And now we're full of energy
We are the robots
We are the robots
We are the robots
We are the robots
We're functioning automatic
And we are dancing mechanic
We are the robots
We are the robots
We are the robots
We are the robots
As this progresses, I adjust the stop limit upwards - at what I consider well outside the range - but within extension of ranges, I guess.
Still, I think there has to be a limit to what kind of a retrace one should withstand. That is not to say I think the mechanical trailing is the type of stop that suits me - but a well considered stop after analyzing ranging and changes of ranges, trending short term.
It has some similarities to automatic trailing - but I guess it's "manual trailing". Maybe that'll give me the confidence I need to deploy these types of trades.
What is most interesting is when price levels lingers on edges of ranges - and see if there is "pressure" to propel it further along. The "counter-pressure" is also important; is it what seems like "baiting" or fundamental resistance/support with factual evidence like options, triggers etc.
Considering this in terms of larger timeframes is something I've always done to get a sense of the trend, but not to judge the validity of position trades.
Events like the Wall St. close is of course a little "important" too with regards to interpreting "pressure".
Still, I think there has to be a limit to what kind of a retrace one should withstand. That is not to say I think the mechanical trailing is the type of stop that suits me - but a well considered stop after analyzing ranging and changes of ranges, trending short term.
It has some similarities to automatic trailing - but I guess it's "manual trailing". Maybe that'll give me the confidence I need to deploy these types of trades.
What is most interesting is when price levels lingers on edges of ranges - and see if there is "pressure" to propel it further along. The "counter-pressure" is also important; is it what seems like "baiting" or fundamental resistance/support with factual evidence like options, triggers etc.
Considering this in terms of larger timeframes is something I've always done to get a sense of the trend, but not to judge the validity of position trades.
Events like the Wall St. close is of course a little "important" too with regards to interpreting "pressure".
Looking at charts, there might be a little stalling below, around 1.2950. I'll take a breather here.
More than 25 ticks profit on the EuroFX position.
I will re-enter on a imagined re-trace towards the (perhaps slightly below) 1.2940-ish area. Just trying to "maximize" a little on this type of "position" or perhaps "swing" trade. I'm not taking any chance shorting it with a scalp though - I will "play it by ear" as far as re-entry level goes.
edit: I probably should do the same with the spot demo position trade - but that account has done so well (except for last weeks drawdown to 300% total), so I'm not bothering.
The nice thing about pausing and re-entering is that I can get both improved profits, some mental rest and objectivity - and I can still use the OCA stop limit and OCA target as meaningful stops for a re-entry into position.
I can already get several ticks improvement on entry - just a few minutes after I paused the trade. That means I have locked in more profits with regards to possibly being stopped out after a re-entry.
Is that a good "strategy"; any opinions ?
More than 25 ticks profit on the EuroFX position.
I will re-enter on a imagined re-trace towards the (perhaps slightly below) 1.2940-ish area. Just trying to "maximize" a little on this type of "position" or perhaps "swing" trade. I'm not taking any chance shorting it with a scalp though - I will "play it by ear" as far as re-entry level goes.
edit: I probably should do the same with the spot demo position trade - but that account has done so well (except for last weeks drawdown to 300% total), so I'm not bothering.
The nice thing about pausing and re-entering is that I can get both improved profits, some mental rest and objectivity - and I can still use the OCA stop limit and OCA target as meaningful stops for a re-entry into position.
I can already get several ticks improvement on entry - just a few minutes after I paused the trade. That means I have locked in more profits with regards to possibly being stopped out after a re-entry.
Is that a good "strategy"; any opinions ?
Yes, I was also thinking about "missed ticks" if it would suddenly blast through what I perceived as stalling. That would obviously create a whole set of other "issues" where I would have to be careful not "eating" that leap if it moved back - as if it was an extension only - thus reducing my profits instead of improving it. The exaggerated fear of the above could also lead to "revenge-trading" where I would shift direction for an opportunity of "scalping back the gap".
Then I am also worried about "making up the rules as I go along". I.e is there any successful experience which can say that what I did is a sound practice.
I realize that the only way of getting this experience is actually performing the trades (real or simulated) since the decisions are all discretionary, and not mechanical.
"It all depends" so good discretionary skill and a wide base of information helps safeguard those decisions.
I think any strategy needs to take mental health into account. If you can't actually follow the strategy, it doesn't matter if it's based on a sound premise or not, because your mental insecurities will negate the position/strategy.
For example, last night, I shorted EUR/AUD and went long AUD/CAD. These are both positions where the setups are good for weeks, and quite possibly months. What happened? I checked it this morning, found I had a nice gain (about 160 pips between the two when I checked it) and after much battling, I couldn't justify leaving them open. This is something I desperately need to work on. The funny thing, I'm fine leaving equity and equity option positions open and not checking them at all, but as of yet, I just can't do it with FX positions. Basically, I sacrificed the potential for two 500+ pip gainers because I was scared of lossing the gain I had.