Ivanovich, I went back and read all 24 of your posts. It is either some arrogant negative comment on some previous post or it is a dollar bullish comment. I doubt that you have been long the EUR and as for the other issue, you are not the ET police, nor the judge and jury on someone else's posting.
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Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
By the way, lest you think I'm a permabull, I intend to make just as much money when the EUR trends down (could be years down the road, I have no idea), than I am with the EUR trending up. I'm a trend follower. It will take a LONG time to convince me that this trend toward a weaker dollar (it's always been a weaker dollar story and not a strong EUR story) has ended. However, when it does smacking bids is what I will be doing. Again, no intention there for many months/years to come (no idea when could also be around the corner).
Quote from trade-ya1:
By the way, lest you think I'm a permabull, I intend to make just as much money when the EUR trends down (could be years down the road, I have no idea), than I am with the EUR trending up. I'm a trend follower. It will take a LONG time to convince me that this trend toward a weaker dollar (it's always been a weaker dollar story and not a strong EUR story) has ended. However, when it does smacking bids is what I will be doing. Again, no intention there for many months/years to come (no idea when could also be around the corner).
Neal,
Just curious why you chose to play your short dollar against the Euro? I'm aware you trade futures so that may be the reason, but I still tend to think that short USD/CAD may be the best short dollar trade around. I'm kicking myself for not riding it out the past few months like I've wanted to, but that's neither here nor there. It just seems to me that the best trade will come when there's a fundamental reason for both sides of the spread to move in the required direction; like you said, long EUR/USD is more about USD weakness than Euro strength. I'm far from an expert, but again, it just seems there are better ways to short the dollar. Hopefully, this won't be taken as a judgement or criticism as it's merely me trying to get some insight into a much more accomplished trader. Any insight you'd be willing to provide would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks,
Steve
Hi Steve,
Excellent question and frankly, one that I've been pondering for a while now. In fact, I'd take it further and think about Kiwi, AUD and CAD. I suppose that I chose EUR because it had the right 'volatility' characteristics for me. I felt that CAD is too boring and moves too slowly. GBP is too volatile and moves to fast. JPY is very manipulated and controlled. Thus, EUR has decent movement, not too fast and not too slow. After trading it for a while, I know it inside out and have been reluctant to change. However, I think that EUR (for similar reasons stated above) has been the 'speculative vehicle of choice' for most participants. As such, it gets subject to a lot of whipsaw action when the Spec. position gets heavy (as it usually is). I suppose the answer lies in having comfort in what you are used to, and pure laziness. When the EUR moves even sharply, I immediately know in my mind how much I've won or lost. Nonetheless, I am strongly considering to diversify into some other currencies that have less speculative involvement as I believe that they will trend higher in a smoother manner. Extremely good and insightful question! Best, Neal.
Excellent question and frankly, one that I've been pondering for a while now. In fact, I'd take it further and think about Kiwi, AUD and CAD. I suppose that I chose EUR because it had the right 'volatility' characteristics for me. I felt that CAD is too boring and moves too slowly. GBP is too volatile and moves to fast. JPY is very manipulated and controlled. Thus, EUR has decent movement, not too fast and not too slow. After trading it for a while, I know it inside out and have been reluctant to change. However, I think that EUR (for similar reasons stated above) has been the 'speculative vehicle of choice' for most participants. As such, it gets subject to a lot of whipsaw action when the Spec. position gets heavy (as it usually is). I suppose the answer lies in having comfort in what you are used to, and pure laziness. When the EUR moves even sharply, I immediately know in my mind how much I've won or lost. Nonetheless, I am strongly considering to diversify into some other currencies that have less speculative involvement as I believe that they will trend higher in a smoother manner. Extremely good and insightful question! Best, Neal.
Quote from trade-ya1:
Hi Steve,
Excellent question and frankly, one that I've been pondering for a while now. In fact, I'd take it further and think about Kiwi, AUD and CAD. I suppose that I chose EUR because it had the right 'volatility' characteristics for me. I felt that CAD is too boring and moves too slowly. GBP is too volatile and moves to fast. JPY is very manipulated and controlled. Thus, EUR has decent movement, not too fast and not too slow. After trading it for a while, I know it inside out and have been reluctant to change. However, I think that EUR (for similar reasons stated above) has been the 'speculative vehicle of choice' for most participants. As such, it gets subject to a lot of whipsaw action when the Spec. position gets heavy (as it usually is). I suppose the answer lies in having comfort in what you are used to, and pure laziness. When the EUR moves even sharply, I immediately know in my mind how much I've won or lost. Nonetheless, I am strongly considering to diversify into some other currencies that have less speculative involvement as I believe that they will trend higher in a smoother manner. Extremely good and insightful question! Best, Neal.
Thanks for the insights, Neal. NZD/USD and AUD/USD look like good candidates as well. I think AUD/USD has a lot of potential because it's not only a play against the weakening dollar, but a play on the growth of China. While I think there are a few plusses for playing the Euro long, I'm not sure they outweight the downside. I'm primarily referring to the possible shift from USD to Euro as the reserve currency.
For what it's worth, the Franc also appears to be heading towards appreciation against the USD, Euro and Pound; I'm not quite sure against the Yen because I think there may be other issues there aside from the BoJ.
Anyway, thanks again for the insights.
Steve
My pleasure. The point is, all currencies are appreciating against the dollar. You can throw a dart and take your choice. In the end, EUR will do the same. For me, and I think for most traders, we all like to bet on the ones that get there in the smoothest manner. Bottom line, all currencies will appreciate against the dollar, some just smoother than others. I'm going to seriously look into those other currencies to see if they are smoother to manage. Best, Neal.
trade-ya1, far removed from us, runs (according to him) a hedge fund with nearly a billion dollars.Quote from trade-ya1:
Ivanovich, I went back and read all 24 of your posts. It is either some arrogant negative comment on some previous post or it is a dollar bullish comment. I doubt that you have been long the EUR and as for the other issue, you are not the ET police, nor the judge and jury on someone else's posting.
In his mind that makes him the Prince of Forex and ruler of this thread all at the same time.
Someone indicated that we should all heed his sage words because he suggested to go long euro at 1.2100.
Heh... actually, I would have suggested the same thing. In fact, I took out long (and short) trades all the way up to 1.2500 where I ceased my buys, and focused strictly on sell trades.
Perhaps you should read thru tradeya1's posts. Only, look for what is missing, not what is said. And there is lots missing, specifically how to trade. He tells you what he does and what to do but he never tells you why. My guess is, he doesn't know why. He just has his finger glued to the buy button believing the world will help him buy a car.
Go figure.
I've openly kicked his ass so bad on trades in this forum before he has had to revert to gathering members and pestering them to send enough complaints to Baron so that Baron just banned me even though he really didn't want to.
And I have no doubt tradeya1 will do the same thing again soon. I could care less though. There's enough guys on this board who know I'm not caught into some false ego so they read me because they truly want to better themselves as traders and think I make legitimate points.
Getting back to tradeya1, any idiot can say "BUY EURO!!!!!!!!!!" And, to him, it doesn't matter when he says it or how often. He's like a broken record that keeps skipping back over and over and over and over.... singing the same thing.
Now... if the price of EUR/USD goes to 100.0000 guess what, he will say "BUY EURO!!!!!!!!!!"
If the price goes to 1.0000... you got it, he says, "BUY EURO!!!!!!!!!!!"
See? It doesn't matter. That's his whole structure. But if you read close enough he always provides himself with a door to exit saying, "Now I may be wrong on this and I'm the first one to admit it."
Only, that is WAY after he has hounded guys on this board to... "BUY EURO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" even at massive loss to those who heed his advice.
You know why? Because, if you don't fall down to the prince then YOU are an "asshole" and an "ass." End.
_____
Let's move past Prince Forex LaLa Land, who is good for a laugh with his manic ravings, for a moment and talk real trading.
The rise in the euro may be centralized in not so much participants buying euro but simply selling USD.
I hold to the theory that a dollar can only be one place at one time. It may be that market participants are moving money out of the USD and into other instruments such as equities. It may have little to do with EUR at all.
If this IS the case, then euro bears may run into problems. Because if money is shifted into equities for a long period of time it may just create a run-up in the stock market. Perhaps then money will be shifted back into the USD.
When, who knows? How high will it take euro? Not to 1.4000. I don't see even to 1.3500 but would not rule it out.
One thing is for sure: The euro WILL collapse. And when it does, the euro will be tossed aside like the piece of garbage that it is.
I would suggest to bears to be circumspect from here out and perhaps even begin reducing exposure just to minimize risk, which is what I plan to do. The shift away from the USD does not represent a catastrophic change - yet - but it is troublesome. Sometimes trades run into troubles. It is not the end of the world. Only, traders may need to keep a bit more focused on the stock markets. If you think there is going to be a massive shift of money into them then you may wish to seriously pare back on holding USD.
It may be that the investment game is now focusing on stocks once again since it is perceived that the US economy is getting better hence investors' confidence may be returning to stocks.
What do you think?
fxSniper
"The point is, all currencies are appreciating against the dollar. Bottom line, all currencies will appreciate against the dollar,... You can throw a dart and take your choice."Quote from trade-ya1:
My pleasure. The point is, all currencies are appreciating against the dollar. You can throw a dart and take your choice. In the end, EUR will do the same. For me, and I think for most traders, we all like to bet on the ones that get there in the smoothest manner. Bottom line, all currencies will appreciate against the dollar, some just smoother than others. I'm going to seriously look into those other currencies to see if they are smoother to manage. Best, Neal.
Wrong again, bro. Currencies aren't doing jack cheese against the dollar and if you were the self-proclaimed expert in currencies you think you are you'd know that.
I already trade AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY and EUR/USD. I don't need to "seriously look into those other currencies to see if they are smoother to manage"
The equation, though not economic "physics," is simply money vanishing from the USD. It doesn't even have that much to do with the USD. It has to do with the perceived profits market participants believe can be theirs if they shift their money into instruments other than the USD.
Most likely this is the conclusion of the matter.
It's been happening for less than 30 days. No big deal. It may stop soon and reverse as profit taking sets in with the other instruments - back money will come into the USD - the price of EUR/USD will tank to 1.2000.
Neil, maybe you should go back to your dart throwing and thinking up names to call real traders like me and others - more words than just the two you have mastered. Broaden your vocabulary.
What have you got to lose....
fxSniper
Tradeya,
All I'm saying is stop trying to be the Big Swinging Dick. I'm not discounting how you trade, or telling anyone how to trade. I admit I'm trying to learn here. You just make learning far less educating, and more about being a bully. I am, however, flattered that someone as rich and powerful as yourself bothered to go read my entire 24 posts on this site. You humble me! Shouldn't you be out enjoying all that money instead of camping the forums? I know I would.
You know, I don't necessarily agree with everything in fxsniper's view, and I actually do agree with a decent amount of what you say regarding the market. It's just a pity that so little actual knowledge comes through in between all the hate (last two posts were pretty good, though). But please tell me where I'm spouting information out that is directing people to follow trading advice?
I was short on Euro from about 1.245 until about 1.255 - then went long. Sorry if you doubt that *shrug*. The commentary tone you hear is me trying to understand the market - because I've always been of the mindset where the data (day to day movements, etc) were important to follow, yet this trend (yes, I know it's a trend!!) has ignored all data.
Peace.
All I'm saying is stop trying to be the Big Swinging Dick. I'm not discounting how you trade, or telling anyone how to trade. I admit I'm trying to learn here. You just make learning far less educating, and more about being a bully. I am, however, flattered that someone as rich and powerful as yourself bothered to go read my entire 24 posts on this site. You humble me! Shouldn't you be out enjoying all that money instead of camping the forums? I know I would.
You know, I don't necessarily agree with everything in fxsniper's view, and I actually do agree with a decent amount of what you say regarding the market. It's just a pity that so little actual knowledge comes through in between all the hate (last two posts were pretty good, though). But please tell me where I'm spouting information out that is directing people to follow trading advice?
I was short on Euro from about 1.245 until about 1.255 - then went long. Sorry if you doubt that *shrug*. The commentary tone you hear is me trying to understand the market - because I've always been of the mindset where the data (day to day movements, etc) were important to follow, yet this trend (yes, I know it's a trend!!) has ignored all data.
Peace.
Prince of Forex has a nice ring to it, hmmm...Coming from Coinz, the one-time self proclaimed GOD of Forex? Have we been brought down to earth a bit. I certainly think that the Prince of Forex is at least a bit more 'mortal' than the God of Forex right? Fxsniper, might I suggest that you not speak (or type) directly to me? For you, it's kind of like looking into the Sun or as in the bible when Lot looked back during the destruction of Sodom and Gamorrah and he turned to salt. Please, you aren't worthy to speak directly to me or read my precious words. I don't care about your opinion and I have no interest in debating your ideas. They are plain and simply dumb.