Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from chinook:

By big chance, I meant it for tonight. Usually, I tend to enter more during the pullbacks and pullups then at specific points. Trying to pick up bottoms and tops haven't worked for me! Euro tends to spike like crazy sometimes so I find it better for my P/L to wait for a reversal in a trend, then enter during a pullback in that new trend.

I'm more familiar with the 10-year which sometimes makes one-way moves reacting to the reports. Meanwhile, Euro will be going around like chicken without head until settling down :)
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So you will most likely get in tonight, say between 1AM - 6AM if you can see a trend (say euro is +13 you will go long before the morning)? Or am I mis-interpreting?
 
Quote from chinook:

Import and Export Prices
8:30ET

International Trade
8:30ET

Jobless Claims
8:30ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30ET

FOMC Announcement
2:15ET
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I love it when I read bloomberg about currencies.. check this out:

``The Europeans made a decision to send a clear signal that they're not inviting euro buying,'' said Steven Englander, chief currency strategist for the Americas at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. The euro will weaken to $1.25 in a month, he said.

but then later in the same article say:

The dollar may resume its decline amid concern about near record U.S. trade deficits, said Brown Brothers' Browne. A bigger deficit means more dollars need to be converted to other currencies to pay for imports.
 
Quote from fandelem:

So you will most likely get in tonight, say between 1AM - 6AM if you can see a trend (say euro is +13 you will go long before the morning)? Or am I mis-interpreting?
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Well not exactly. I'll start monitoring the market especially the pullbacks and pullups. If I see that volume is preferring a certain direction, and it doesn't look like we'll chop and the price is on the right direction with respect to my adaptive MA then I'll open a position.
 
Seems like some are making their own moves in the EuroFX without the moves of the spot to support them. It was interesting how the 100-lot was holding the EuroFX up while spot was a little lower. It finally burst a few minutes before 23:00 EST.

But seeing as there was significantly stalling when a lonely 10-lot was left hanging a little above 1.2965-ish - it was actually a larger shock to see the 100-lot go ... :D

I guess it says a lot about the "action" we're seeing.

I'm squared with another +6 tick scalp for the day - giving +2 total and then commissions for 3 R/Ts.

Looking for more opportunities now is out of the question ... let's have some fiesting when the numbers start rolling tomorrow - pre-empting FOMC moves.
 
Quote from Wittgenstein:

It's much more easy to trade when you know what's happening -and why. The fundamentals (news) are the leading indicators - TA are the lagging indicators.
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you sure the opposite aint possible?
 
Quote from Wittgenstein:

No. You can also trade what you see - but then it's more difficult to let your profit run, I suppose.
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That's why I don't get those 100, 200 ticks when I do scalping, I guess.

I knew I was doing something wrong, especially since I was having a bad day yesterday. If I traded the news yesterday I would probably have a much better performance ...

... or could it be that I would have to do like FX-Concepts and have a few months timehorizon ? Risk 500 ticks for 500 ticks profits ? What leverage should I use on these profit-running trades ? Do you recommend using something like 30% ?

On the EuroFX now, it seems the only action we see is the MM arbing the spot. It's like rigor mortis is setting in already. I suspect he hits his own positions like 80% of the time - time which 99.99% of the time is without movement.

Strangely enough, he seems to only want to collapse levels upwards ... Could it be that he has a 'few long contracts' ? :D

edit: a few minutes ago some currency analyst on Bloomberg UK was saying that he expected the USD to "really move today". He failed to say which direction, though.

edit2: I guess the USD can really move on the news from outgoing John Ashcroft that safeguarding the US from threats of terror and crime has been achieved.
 
Watching european open with a big portion of some hot mexican beans (homemade - and A LOT of jalapeños) ...
I expect it to be a little hot and a good amount of cracks and bangs.

Seeing it go below 1.2884 right now - with a nice +18 on my short here, and getting it too. I guess I trade best when I see what I need to do. It took no time too. I can't stomach the longer term positions as easily as those mexican beans.
:D

Seeing the "action" since around 14:00 EST yesterday has been like watching someone in a full body-cast playing mini-golf.
 
I "forgot" to scale down the trade on the demo account further. I just heard the "[tooloup]"-sound of it getting liquidated. Oh, well - just a roughly 50% drawdown on the account (back to 300% in comparison to last weeks 600% gain). I guess that will make it a little harder to get that 1000% in there. :) :) :)

Closing in on the 1-2860 it's getting a little dangerous - but the breach of 1.2880 was obviously going for the reported stops there. Finally! - the first gutsy move since ... many hours!

I don't expect the market eyeing anything more significant than this stop - so we just saw a range-extension, and it would be quite safe to go long towards 1.2900-ish from here, in my opinion.
 
Nice call Gringinho - Some stop running seems to be the order of the day till Trade Balance figures and FOMC is out of the way - this could go down to 28/2780
 
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