Today is quite special ... 12:30 GMT there will be a G10 announcement - the start of mettings for today and tomorrow. They will discuss currencies amongst other things.
The uncertainties is what aches me ... it was quite easy to identify when the marketmaker (MM) was wanting to pull things up - as they had 130+ contracts on Interbank bid at those times - and otherwise they had 100+ contracts at best ask+2 ticks.
Now, it's starting to look a little more testy, and I don't especially know how it will fare in the start - other than that it won't go for 1.3000 ... it will probably stall.
So - you have a nominal 30 tick target then, I presume. I think we'll see a little chop - like in the asian session - with undecision. When US RTH session draws nearer we'll see fear like we saw before FTSE open - and a trace back to friday's closing levels is my guess. During US session - perhaps before with some excruciating grinding pain extension before open - I think there will be more chop before some cards get played or tossed.
If we get into 1.2990+ , then those holding the 1.3000 might show they've already taken countermeasures to equalize the break of those, so they might fall ... or we'll see some opposition. The talk is quite sky high year-end levels for â¬$, but with wednesday's FOMC meeting we'll probably see more volatility.
I think today is special, becuase it will show how easy we can get much, much higher. Otherwise, the year-end, going into holiday session is infamous for currency volatility, illiquidity making big moves easier (according to pundits on Bloomberg).
The uncertainties is what aches me ... it was quite easy to identify when the marketmaker (MM) was wanting to pull things up - as they had 130+ contracts on Interbank bid at those times - and otherwise they had 100+ contracts at best ask+2 ticks.
Now, it's starting to look a little more testy, and I don't especially know how it will fare in the start - other than that it won't go for 1.3000 ... it will probably stall.
So - you have a nominal 30 tick target then, I presume. I think we'll see a little chop - like in the asian session - with undecision. When US RTH session draws nearer we'll see fear like we saw before FTSE open - and a trace back to friday's closing levels is my guess. During US session - perhaps before with some excruciating grinding pain extension before open - I think there will be more chop before some cards get played or tossed.
If we get into 1.2990+ , then those holding the 1.3000 might show they've already taken countermeasures to equalize the break of those, so they might fall ... or we'll see some opposition. The talk is quite sky high year-end levels for â¬$, but with wednesday's FOMC meeting we'll probably see more volatility.
I think today is special, becuase it will show how easy we can get much, much higher. Otherwise, the year-end, going into holiday session is infamous for currency volatility, illiquidity making big moves easier (according to pundits on Bloomberg).
Oh well.