Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

it.. just.. keeps .. going.. up and up!

lol, so i guess nonfarm didnt have much pull afterall? because if you go by the mechanics, a strong nonfarm should have hurt the euro, not made it increase 100+ pips.....

that sucker is bound for 1.300 by the early part of monday imo.
 
The funny thing is how FXCM and Refco FX are both "stuck" - 1.2969 and 1.2964 respectively.
Hehe, only IB is swinging - as can be confirmed at e.g www.saxobank.com etc. I guess the FXCM, Refco guys just had enough today. :)

I went short on EuroFX too, just too convincing from here. Time-horizon is kind of a scalp/swing.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

The funny thing is how FXCM and Refco FX are both "stuck" - 1.2969 and 1.2964 respectively.
Hehe, only IB is swinging - as can be confirmed at e.g www.saxobank.com etc. I guess the FXCM, Refco guys just had enough today. :)

I went short on EuroFX too, just too convincing from here. Time-horizon is kind of a scalp/swing.
More...

are you leaving it short over the weekend?

i read a while back the prime minister isnt going to worry about the eur until it reaches 1.400..
 
Quote from fandelem:

are you leaving it short over the weekend?

i read a while back the prime minister isnt going to worry about the eur until it reaches 1.400..
More...

Yes, I'm a beliver! :)
I just think that we could possibly see some traceback back to the "consensus" level I mentioned.
 
Good calls Gringinho, :). Can I ask you how you knew there would be a retracement from the 40/50 level? Did you see the same trendline as drawn on the chart attached? And why did you see the 20 level as (light?) support, I didn't see that.

Keep it up!
 

Attachments

Argh. Please excuse me while I slam my head against the wall. Ugh.

Sorry for the whining... just getting frustrated. I hate having fairly good intuition on direction, but lacking the balls to see them through. Hopefully I'm starting to develop it.

Congrats to all who were short the USD this week... like I had planned, but didn't execute. C'est la vie. Think I may get drunk this weekend. :D
 
Quote from V-Viper:

What time (EST) does it reopen? Anyone expecting it to gap down? I don;t know how it can keep on going up from here...
More...

The fundamentals would suggest it can go way up. But I don't expect a gap. A retracement down is possible, or just more up, who knows :D
 
I was getting today/Monday as a major reversal day. Last time I had one like this was May 13 when euro was at about 1.18. Would wait for a down day before shorting though.
 
Quote from TradingWise:

Good calls Gringinho, :). Can I ask you how you knew there would be a retracement from the 40/50 level? Did you see the same trendline as drawn on the chart attached? And why did you see the 20 level as (light?) support, I didn't see that.

Keep it up!
More...

All mostly based on tape-reading as well as rumoured options barriers etc. I do look at charts for some input too - but it's quite simplistic useage - no candle-patterns or similar. Calling the stops is quite easy as long as the momentum is there. It's just to go for the last one (as seen in the book), but if a significant amount of contracts were trapped on the previous move/range-high - then a little extenstion is warranted.
But all in all - the underlying trend and current "time-zone" conditions - like choppy, thin-volume etc. dictates how the moves goes - as long as no one with a bigger "plan" enter the market.

I guess I just got lucky a few times in a row - trying to humble myself down a little to not get wiped next week. :)

I'm just looking for a little retracement for this next one though. There is some 1.29-ish support although 1.2890s are probably better, with 1.2850s probably strong - but that all depends what is being reported as bids, and option strikes, barriers etc next week. Sunday will see some careful trading in my opinion.

Monday can get some relucant corporations out there - because it really matters to them now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top