Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

I think we'll see a little more choppy conditions on the open, so that's why I bailed out. Nice profits, although I didn't expect it so soon. It's definitely the way to go for propelling myself into bigger profits, though. Next time I will wait for similarily clear entry, as having 1.5 weeks profits in around 24h without any commission to speak about is tempting as "strategy". Need to study where I would find good entries next time.
 
Quote from Andy62279:

pretty good move. My trailing stop got hit during the retracement. No re-entry for me, so I get to watch and see what happens. :D

I have the impression that trailing stops are best after passing a certain target ? I am not very comfortable using trailing stops, but I see the advantage when profits are going to be locked in - but letting it ride to a perceived maximum. Anyways, doesn't that already entail a better target ? I have some trouble understanding the full benefits of trailing, because in most conditions a fair amount of swings will occur, even if still trending - so time-horizon for the trade will perhaps decide the size of the trailing stop ?

Anyways, having a fully mechanical exit for discretionary entries does seem to have some fundamental problems IMO. Well, here the € seems to have gotten some more fuel to it's fire.

I guess we'll see more choppiness during this US RTH - mainly because of "false perceptions" on importance of tomorrow's NFP number - IMO. :D
 
Hmmm, maybe I'll have to take it easy a little now. I'm shorting here above 1.2890 ... :D
Dangerous attitude, and I think the possibility that it might break up stronger very quick is playing with my mind - making me want to recoup potential further gains on the former position trade. +8 on 2 short scalps so far.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

I have the impression that trailing stops are best after passing a certain target ? I am not very comfortable using trailing stops, but I see the advantage when profits are going to be locked in - but letting it ride to a perceived maximum. Anyways, doesn't that already entail a better target ? I have some trouble understanding the full benefits of trailing, because in most conditions a fair amount of swings will occur, even if still trending - so time-horizon for the trade will perhaps decide the size of the trailing stop ?

Anyways, having a fully mechanical exit for discretionary entries does seem to have some fundamental problems IMO. Well, here the € seems to have gotten some more fuel to it's fire.

I guess we'll see more choppiness during this US RTH - mainly because of "false perceptions" on importance of tomorrow's NFP number - IMO. :D

I really don't know. In my opinion no exit strategy is perfect. I followed my plan and that's good enough for me. 50 pips aint bad though. I know it could be more, but that thinkings not constructive for me :D

With a move like this I doubt I'll have a setup for Friday... but ya never know. Euro looks strong here. I guess this confirms Bush's win?? :confused: haha
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Hmmm, maybe I'll have to take it easy a little now. I'm shorting here above 1.2890 ... :D
Dangerous attitude, and I think the possibility that it might break up stronger very quick is playing with my mind - making me want to recoup potential further gains on the former position trade. +8 on 2 short scalps so far.

it's interesting reading how scalpers think. You guys use price action, swing traders use indicators.

well good luck with your trade, so far it looks good :D
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Hmmm, maybe I'll have to take it easy a little now. I'm shorting here above 1.2890 ... :D
Dangerous attitude, and I think the possibility that it might break up stronger very quick is playing with my mind - making me want to recoup potential further gains on the former position trade. +8 on 2 short scalps so far.

I've been shorting since the 80s ;o) hoping it is going to dive down for a few pips to break even .. i think you may be right, we are destined for 1.29+ today
 
This baby looks ready to pop. No more shorting here for a little while.

edit: Thomson says that Middle East names which capped above 1.28 with a lot of profit-taking are massive buyers here. They report talk that they have bought around 7 bn €s last 24h - perhaps as oil revenue diversification. Also, they note that Trichet did not talk down the € when having the opportunity.
 
Today's european close will be very interesting - in fact, the imminent US equities open as well - all the way through 1.3000 later today ? I can't seem to make up my mind, and here's where the lack of systematic trading becomes a factor. I better stay a little with the scalping today, I find it much easier to think reflectively about longer targets when I see some consolidation.

edit: US labour productivity at lows, while US labour costs are at highs -- doesn't sound good.
 
Thomson reports the size of the 1.2900 option as being $12 mn, and that the holder and seller battle it out. Anyone not seeing 1.2900 some time later today ? The first attempt was quite strong, but didn't quite do it. I think I will set in a long position from my demo spot - which has had a ridiculous return the last days.

Thomson reports a few US investment bank names selling here, on beliefs that the 1.29 would not yield yet.

edit: to me the 1.2870-ish capping doesn't seem to be very convincing, so I will switch to long bias for now.
 
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