Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
It's just my protest-vote.
If Bush wins I think like trade-ya1, that USD will get weaker ASAP. Bush has not done a great deal for fiscal sanity, and being excempt from IMF scrutinous measures, they probably will not do a lot either. Oil prices will probably continue a good stretch and energy-related buddies, a long with raw-materials will probably see newer highs with increased competition as USD depreciates.
Bush is bad for multi-nationals, although he's pro free trade etc. - it's just that in his narrowous mind he has made several protectionist moves. Recall Steve Forbes on Bloomberg earlier tuesday.
Quote from Gringinho:
If Bush wins Ohio now, I'm not trading short â¬s for a considerable time.
Hmmm .. I don't like the FL news .. gotta tune into more of CNNI.
Not sure about your analysis. EUR/USD popped when the exit polls first came out favoring Kerry (before they were released to the public). Unfortunately, I don't really have a handle on this...it seems to me that a Bush win should spell further dollar weakness but the price seems to be saying differently. Not sure why but a dollar rally might occur from a bush victory--maybe just because everyone is relieved that it isn't a dragged out nightmare like last time?
Yes, you're right. Whatever the president - the USD is going further down over the next 6 months. That's more into the fundamentals with growing deficit, increasingly difficult Iraq situation .. and Bush would get little further support in EU etc.
edit: also remember the EURJPY cross pressure in this asian session. It gives a little skewed impression.
edit2: hope you guys took that small dip opportunity, because I smell higher â¬s as the asian session starts to wane.
edit3: dangerously choppy now, someone is playing. Remember there is an established range - it will not be broken by the outcome this night - during the asian session. IMO, of course
