Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from Gringinho:

Seems the big moves has fueled the story-makers out there and Thomson reports sighting dubious rumors about Washington releasing strategic reserve, important al-queda capture and imminent surprise-spring on Kerry campaign by the Bush camp.

I am chuckling here ... :D

Taking a look at the chart for the day - 5-min or 10-min, there is nothing alarming with this retracements for those who are bull. One has to consider the newsflow and possible market reactions to judge if a bigger slide down will occur. So far nothing indicates a big slide.

Activity has slowed down a lot more now, so stay out of the slow trapping chops if you're looking to scalp easily.
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Grin: I am laughing myself. I think its CBs getting spooked and dealers taking profits like I wrote this morning.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/sto...1495-A0C2-42D2-B9D0-DFBDBE9FDF13}&siteid=mktw
 
Quote from jbt:

chin: the flipper has joined the euro book :)
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People are talking about him joining the 10 year book! Maybe you're right he's testing the waters in the Euro book too:eek:
 
I think Carl Larry with Barclays Capital Inc on Bloomberg just now had some good valid points about the inventory number not being a good excuse for the slide today. The slide was exaggerated and inventories were the lowest number going in to the winter season ever.

We could see a bounce sooner than I thought first, and I think profit taking and jitters are teasing traders. The close election run-up and the possible ugly-democracy-symptom of lawyers lining up to attack the election vote outcome makes it all a travesty. Well, with 80% of the world's lawyers in the US -- what can one expect with the precedence of the 2000 election. Got to keep that litigation business going.

Short lawyer futures, anyone ? :)
 
He he, perhaps you should send a suggestion to CME for a "lawyer" futures contract!

BTW, IB has been giving a lot of blank quotes today here!!!!
 
Quote from Gringinho:

I think Carl Larry with Barclays Capital Inc on Bloomberg just now had some good valid points about the inventory number not being a good excuse for the slide today. The slide was exaggerated and inventories were the lowest number going in to the winter season ever.

We could see a bounce sooner than I thought first, and I think profit taking and jitters are teasing traders. The close election run-up and the possible ugly-democracy-symptom of lawyers lining up to attack the election vote outcome makes it all a travesty. Well, with 80% of the world's lawyers in the US -- what can one expect with the precedence of the 2000 election. Got to keep that litigation business going.

Short lawyer futures, anyone ? :)
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Grin: lawyers are the only thing that keeps this country from sliding into a pure fascist state. Dont knock them. An no I am not one :)
 
I think that it could be "ok" to enter a long around 1.2700 even. Perhaps not the best entry - but I think we'll definitely go higher towards the mid-levels of 1.27 "soon enough". It's not bottom-fishing - just a longshot. :)
I will try this as a very small position. I guess around 1.2660 would make some ok stop level and the target above 1.2750 - trailing it above (maybe 25 ?). The logic is that *IF WE GO HIGHER AGAIN* it will be quite convincing for the market that we will test new much higher highs imminently. A break of 1.2660 or around there - possibly to 1.2620 with stalling/consolidation there - would pull the rug on the recent and continued rise of the €.

Does that make sense ?

I think that the oil focus is not absent from all of this and news would have to be taken into account as well. However, the risks for further USD drawdowns are much larger than than it appreciating now with world sentiments mounting further and actually seeing how oil crude prices impact on the US GDP growth. Not forgetting the outlook on next year with the high commodity, energy prices impacting profits with low-cost asian producers and the "collateral effect" this could have on the worldly meshed economy.
The presidential election, lawyer-snickering and all the turbulence is the icing on the cake. If further terrorism-scares surfaces as well .... well ... who knows.



edit: Thomson just reported new offers at 1.2750 and previously reported small stops around 1.2690 mixed in with bids and further bids at 1.2675 . So then the dangers are a bit clearer. I still think it makes for a sensible trade, though.
 
Forgot to mention the timeframe ... I admit it can be tricky to sit this one out druing the US GDB growth number release friday - even the weekend before the election and perhaps added significance to jobless claims tomorrow. Therefore - I will not hesitate to close whenever I feel it is getting too flaky. No need to push the envelope too much.
See - my fearful scalping-voices already start their barbecueing.
:D

(missed the edit-timelimit by 1minute on prev post)
 
Gringinho,

I'm tempted to open a long from here too. I would probably wait up until around the European open.

Edit: I couldn't wait any longer and got long right around 1.27. I have a 16 pts stop.
 
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