Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from chinook:

I think you seriously got the bug. Hopefully, you'll reach your goal but then you'll want a 10-figure number, then 11-figures. There's no turning back :)
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Hehe, yes. I already did the 5- and 6-digit financial goals when I was working .. and those were yearly target jumps mind you. There was no time like those 90s until 99. :)

I have this target indefinitely - no time limit. :D


It seems the current levels on the EuroFX are bewildering ... I see 3-4 tick spreads a lot around and below the 1.2730s. Who would trade then ... ? Worse than spot FX.
 
I've never seen it like this before! I saw single bid ask levels >10,000 right around 8:30 am EST!!! Also, bid asks of multiple thousands were switching sides.

Has anyone else seen these?
 
Yes, the volume was extremely heavy around the durable goods number with thousands of contracts within timespan of a few seconds in transactions. Baffling.
I wish Thomson would comment EuroFX too. :)
 
Almost all the time, around the important number releases, the TOTAL bid/ask goes down to 50-100. I can't believe the heavy bid ask volume this time.

Edit: Do you save the bid/asks from the book?
 
Quote from chinook:

Almost all the time, around the important number releases, the TOTAL bid/ask goes down to 50-100. I can't believe the heavy bid ask volume this time.

Edit: Do you save the bid/asks from the book?
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Yes, although I imagine they are not snapshot-true when numbers are released ... then I only trust the best bid/ask data. I need to get other sources API finished - e.g Velocity X-Trader to see if that one is complete with changes to orderbook.
 
Thomson are short at 1.2800 with target 1.2685 and stop above 1.2840 ...
I don't think I agree with them on this on just yet.

Like Deutsche Bank reports:
EUR USD (1.2755) In NY trading yesterday, the euro embarked on its biggest decline since the runaway advance got underway two weeks ago. Admittedly, the less than one-percent correction (the low was 1.2730) was not much when set against the 5 percent rally that preceded it. But it was more than enough to restore the faith of short-term bears whose earlier attempt to pick the top in the mid-$1.26s ended in disaster. The risk of intervention still seems to be the principal argument of the top-pickers. It is noteworthy that comments from ECB officials on the single-currency have tended to be rather sanguine during the recent rally – when they have bothered to mention it at all. Nevertheless, traders seized on news that Chirac and Schroeder plan to meet to discuss the “worrying” euro. Also the re-emergence of complaints by European exporters – led yesterday by the CEO of Airbus – might have encouraged some traders to believe that one of them could actually do something about it. The current objective remains 1.3040. Day-traders are likely to prefer the short side again today. As a result, an early bounce will attract some supply. However, these may simply be the positions that ultimately fuel a move to new highs. Also look for profit-taking demand from this group ahead of 1.2680. The risk-reward limit to the bullish scenario is unchanged at 1.2645/50.

Thomson could help propel this thing higher. I agree with them that charts, studies show overbought, but just wouldn't underestimate the momentum that has just started to emerge. The fairly brief lows of around 1.2730 -- and with wide spreads on the EuroFX the first time down on the dip -- didn't seem that convincing to be pushing lower. The bounce up was much more spunky, and like I mentioned earlier, re-calibrating to the reality of the breakout might offer stop-running opportunities tempting for the broad €-bullish market.

You usually don't get two chances on the same opportunity in this market, so comments like "short/long on second failure" seems a little optimistic to me.
:)

edit: no shortage on comments of "european central banks - scandinavian - aggressive selling" now from Thomson too. The better-than-expected exisiting home sales number might offer an excuse for a dip, though. I think oil inventories in 30 mins are going to be watched more closely as OPEC figures talk about possible USD 80 per oil barrel next year.
 
Oil was turning down to the 53s. Almost pegging EURUSD.

GDP growth is in focus next - the oil prices were hurting possible growth and now we have to see if it has any immediate effect.
 
Anyone favouring a bounce here ? Any thoughts ? :)

Perhaps around 1.2715 ?


edit: Thomson also cites the european closing hours as a factor. Then markets were beginning to stress a little with the oil data and the recent run-up, I guess.
 
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