Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from chinook:

jbt,

What do you mean by this a dealers market?

Thanks.
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Dealers always take the opposite side of the trend - that their job they have to provide liquidity to their customers. So after the buying ( or the the selling is done ) they will always try to pull it in the other direction to trigger stops and cover their shorts. Over the past 2 days they had to print a huge amount of shorts so they needed to bring it in a little bit. Notice - the tradable does NOT have to come back to the starting point for them to be profitable. Using scale and size they just need to bring it back a 1/3rd to make their money back.

That why 38.2% Fib works :).

I put up a link to todays report a few notes above where I talk about dealers squaring up.

Off to be cya on the Euro open
 
Quote from jbt:

...
Using scale and size they just need to bring it back a 1/3rd to make their money back.

That why 38.2% Fib works :).
...
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Very true. The 38.2% fib is constantly mentioned by absolutely all analysts, and figure prominently in every their analysis as key levels.
 
Quote from gringinho:

Market makers are squeezing those small traders into the RTH margin requirement close 14:45 EST
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Is this an IB thing? Why in the world would they say the day ends at 2:45 when the end of the NY interbank day and the CME futures close is at 5:00?
 
Gringin:

I was not trying to "poke fun" , this is one of the more intelligent threads on ET. I was hoping you did not take it the wrong way and were making some dough from your own intuition of The Fx market. It has been "Spot On"....no pun intended.
Keep up the good work.
 
Quote from jbt:

Dealers always take the opposite side of the trend - that their job they have to provide liquidity to their customers. So after the buying ( or the the selling is done ) they will always try to pull it in the other direction to trigger stops and cover their shorts. Over the past 2 days they had to print a huge amount of shorts so they needed to bring it in a little bit. Notice - the tradable does NOT have to come back to the starting point for them to be profitable. Using scale and size they just need to bring it back a 1/3rd to make their money back.

That why 38.2% Fib works :).

I put up a link to todays report a few notes above where I talk about dealers squaring up.

Off to be cya on the Euro open
More...

Interesting. Thanks for the clarification.
 
Quote from TRADERguy:

Is this an IB thing? Why in the world would they say the day ends at 2:45 when the end of the NY interbank day and the CME futures close is at 5:00?
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The intraday margin at IB for FX futures ends at 2:45 pm EST. That's roughly when the bond and FX futures pits close too.
 
Quote from Ebo:

Gringin:

I was not trying to "poke fun" , this is one of the more intelligent threads on ET. I was hoping you did not take it the wrong way and were making some dough from your own intuition of The Fx market. It has been "Spot On"....no pun intended.
Keep up the good work.
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Sure, no hard feelings. I just like to come out strongly when I think it's needed, because users "moderating" content in threads is better than having the designated moderators do the job.
But like I have mentioned in various threads - an electronic forum is difficult because you never see the important facial expression when communicating. So one need to be extra careful and use smilies in abundance when one feels the extra hint is needed.
:)

I like to pat myself on the back sometimes too with my EuroFX trading, but I have lost so much money earlier on equities, so I don't feel like I deserve it yet. If I ever reach my financial goal - which is a 9-digit number I think I'll go for a vacational vacation - not just trying to live the vacational dream.
 
Quote from TRADERguy:
Is this an IB thing? Why in the world would they say the day ends at 2:45 when the end of the NY interbank day and the CME futures close is at 5:00?
More...

Maybe, it wouldn't surprise anyone if the squeezing also was part of Timber Hill Trading, but they apparently have no information about the IB customers' trading by default. Only some SMART-routed orders go through the Timber Hill part, when they can make an better offer, if I understood correctly.

It would be very tempting to have the information on IB customers and their positions, entries etc. because IB is the biggest contributor to the CME in number of transactions after all. It would be a sweet deal indeed, but I think IB already has clarified doubts on this on the forum earlier.

Regulations on IB, thus do impact markets - but overnight rates still come into play later on. I guess those with transactional member ID information (I think it's provided to CME exchange members?) would certainly show how IB customers are position when analyzed.
 
Quote from chinook:

The intraday margin at IB for FX futures ends at 2:45 pm EST. That's roughly when the bond and FX futures pits close too.
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Luckily I would never be using margin less than the exchange margin requirement but it still seems odd that IB gives a toss as to when the pits close. Hasn't anyone their figured out that most of the volume is on the screen?
 
Quote from Gringinho:



....
I like to pat myself on the back sometimes too with my EuroFX trading, but I have lost so much money earlier on equities, so I don't feel like I deserve it yet. If I ever reach my financial goal - which is a 9-digit number I think I'll go for a vacational vacation - not just trying to live the vacational dream.
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I think you seriously got the bug. Hopefully, you'll reach your goal but then you'll want a 10-figure number, then 11-figures. There's no turning back :)
 
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