Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Both are in upswing. I'm getting tempted to close my short and stay flat. But I'll fade myself this time :)

Edit: The upswing volume is still low. This is making me biased against the validity of this run up.
 
Quote from chinook:

Gringinho,

I don't understand what you are getting at with the order book observations. Do you mean they are flashing large orders and then pulling them back and trading the previous small orders below them?

Could you please also clarify your suggestion for watching the volume towards the close today. Do you mean since it's Friday, we'll start chopping in couple of hours?

I think I have "heavy" head this morning :)
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What I saw a lot of yesterday was that they capped the price a little, then jumped "further back" in the orderbook - overtaking the smaller size .. but of course spot moves there too - so it could be a question about who has the quotes first. Things that seem simultaneous to me might be separated in time for those with direct InterBank feed, CME feed etc.

And fridays without trending has for the last month or so just completely dried up.. i.e if you are wrong into the end of the trading day - and the week, you have virtually no chance of getting back into positive territory, as well as not having any good conditions for taking new trades. So further trading would be very risky - more pointless as you would just build up commission and perhaps no profits. Therefore, I usually have less tolerance for trades seemingly going badly - and would stop them more quickly. It's all because you will be getting fewer and fewer good chances towards the end.

Just some experience from fridays - I stay out towards the end because of that.
Hmm, gotta look for some entry now, but I'm seeing the european close creeping up and US lunch hours...

edit: BTW I have a slight up bias for now ... but I got in/out at the same level in the mid 1.2620s as the only trade for now. But that only means that I would take more long directions for quick scalps, and take less short directional scalps.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

I thought currencies were one of those things that were COMPLETELY independent of equities/stocks ... ? :)
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Not completely but definitely less correlation than there used to be. Same recent break down of inverse correlation between stocks and bonds.
 
Quote from curl:

ok ?
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Ok, you obviously have tested this for these specific pairs (EURUSD-EuroFX vs S&P500-ES), but in general I would think there is no great correleation between currencies and stock markets. You don't mention a timeframe on this, but looking at big timeframes with € at around 1.29 at years end .. and then the slump in both S&P and € and now towards the end of the year a return to levels close by .. perhaps. :)

I do know the european investors see buying opportunities in US markets when the USD gets cheap, and of course the currency offsets are important in investing in foreign markets. Uhh, and not to forget hedgers, of course.

Also for today and next week's reminders:
[14:42 EUR/JPY: Massive EUR Debt Redemptions Could Weigh On Cross] San Francisco, Oct. 22nd: EUR/JPY is at 136.72 and continues to only show marginal change through the morning. The cross, though stable over the last few sessions, is at risk of heavy selling pressure next week due to large Eurozone debt redemptions coupled with large coupon payments. Redemptions close to EUR22 bln are tipped along with coupon payments topping EUR15 bln. Only EUYR5 bln in new issuance is tipped to absorb these flows. Japanese investors, growing wary of poor economic data from the Eurozone, and looking at multi-year low yield spreads against JGBs, may choose to cash in their chips, so to speak, and take profit on the hefty FX gains seen on this cross since 2000. This increases the risk of a push through 135.00 next week, particularly with USD/JPY still remaining heavy.

edit: the action already seems winding down for the last 30-40 mins ... :(
OTOH, that could just be the push upwards being foiled.
 
I think Google is correlated well with EURUSD :)

Today's hot stock is GOOG. Anyway, I'm looking at GOOG level II. It's almost discontinuous....My eyes are strained in two minutes :)
 
from Thomson / www.ifrmarkets.com :

[15:05 EUR/USD: Talk Of Fining Buys and high oil Prices Lift Prices] New York, October 22: Oil prices have surged to a fresh high at $55.35 and that is again weighing on the Dollar. Rumors of fixing buying of the EUR against both the JPY and USD have been mentioned today, but traders are still wary of buying EUR/USD after this morning"s sharp reversal from 1.2660. Should that buying not materialize, EUR/USD could slip back toward 1.2600. There aren"t many large stops on the order books on the upside, but looking in the other direction,large ones sit below 1.2570. Right now, the recent buying has limited the decline, but one wonders if the quasi-official selling interest will again appear near 1.2650.

Edit: Thomson also concerned that today's high is only 10 pips over yesterday's .. so they raised their stop to 1.2590.
(babysitting my trade now ... so I'll continue after that)

edit2: well, finally got those 6 ticks in there. It might not go any higher, though - so I guess it was a good call. Having european close now, so we'll probably see a little less action .. also lunch hours in EST. I'm +6 in 2, so I'll be a little shy of trying something else - if a very,very good opportunity doesn't come by. It IS FRIDAY after all.
I did more trades in the spot FX demo though, but they were all scalps and not positions ... so those gains don't offer much for satisfaction.
 
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