Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from curl:

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Curl,

Why don't you start your own thread in FX. If you are going to discuss your trades, you're welcomed to post. But you are not even answering people's questions.
 
I'm short biased today after the sharp reversal early this morning. I waited for my 16 tick "pullup" and finally shorted at 1.2612. I'm hoping for a trend down day, but it's just a hope....

Edit: Right now I have an 8 tick stop. But I'll move it down soon.
 
I got stopped out on this short trade. Once I got stopped out, EURUSD went down 10 ticks, ouch. Anyway, I still have short bias but I'll wait and see how this thing dances around. The upside swings are in relatively small volume compared to the earlier sharp sell-off.
 
If you look at the book, look how they let a larger lot be at the best bid/ask with smaller size behind and then larger again behind the small ones ... also they "cycle" their orders to see - this shows how many smaller ones are at those levels.

When they hav a larger order ahead of smaller ones , the tendence right now is to pull that larger one and it spurts 2-3 ticks. Similar to the tough action yesterday.

Deutsche Bank says short-term players became a little short yesterday amidst frustration that follow-through wasn't there, but that they already took profits. Also that the 1.2650 resistance probably was a lot weaker now that prices had lingered high for a while (well, that's basically what I was talking about self-confirming the "beginning trending", I guess). DB says they have a neutral stance now - i.e they don't have a particular bias .. but note a bullish market still.

Thomson are still long from 1.2545 with 1.2710 target - but will now flat another 1.27-run. They also note bullish bias.

Remember : watch the clock and volumes towards this FRIDAY's close.

edit: seems they want to run stops above 1.2630 now... but some struggle around this level.
 
Thomson also reports a € 1bn plain vanilla call option rolling off on monday, and exotic barriers at same level, with some exotic triggers at 1.2675, 12700 and 1.2705.
 
Gringinho,

I don't understand what you are getting at with the order book observations. Do you mean they are flashing large orders and then pulling them back and trading the previous small orders below them?

Could you please also clarify your suggestion for watching the volume towards the close today. Do you mean since it's Friday, we'll start chopping in couple of hours?

I think I have "heavy" head this morning :)
 
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