Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Well, the break down of the range was a good trade for those who rode the last wave from the top of the range. I was busy writing on the forum, but I probably wouldn't have gotten short anyway because of the lunch hours... Also the volume increased only when the range broke - with a lot of stops obviously. Considering the thin reason for the extension of the range earlier as well as the flimsy reasons for being up here without very compelling news, technicals I won't change my bias - but won't chase moves either.

The risk is for a return to around the 1.2550 area, since there is no push for killing those perceived 1.2625 barriers, stops.

I took a demo spot FX position/scalp from around the top of the range to the mid low 1.26 levels, but I'm not getting ready for those bigger trades still. I originally had a sub-1.26 target of around 1.2598, but I imagine a lot of fighting around the 1.2595-6 area, so ... :)

edit: of course now we just blasted through them ... just goes to show - can't be right all the time. :D

edit2: these retracements and "slide-looking chart" on tick time-frame doesn't look good for closing above 1.26 .. but like I said earlier, a close above 1.2520 is going to be very, very good for the €. I think we'll see a good level of activity ahead - although we might return to lower ranges ... do NOT forget the pending US election and it's effects. A lot of nervousness and possible profit-taking could send us back sooner than later. :)
 
Seems like it changed into extension-looking with running stops. The RTH close is creeping up fast too... so there might be some hope still, but my guess is for a choppy end. Will have to look later for a possible big slide or further popcorn behaviour.

At least the mid 1.2590's are what I thought.
:)

Gotta get some dinner, but 23 ticks on 4 trades is ok for today, as nervous as I started out.

edit: According to Thomson / www.ifrmarkets.com a large US money center bank caught the market long € on the slide down. So then at least it was confirmed. Lately, this almost always ends into choppy trading after such a stop-run into these trading hours.
 
Very nice catch chinook.

Yeah a probe of downside seems warranted -- no one who just woke up this morning and went long EUR for a position trade deserves to make any money :)

Edit: or more specifically, no one who just woke up and bought EUR should get a free ride with stops at breakeven.
 
Thomson notes that dealers are seeing very heavy buying of 1.2650 EURUSD calls by a big US investment name, and new barriers are being established there. Protection of those options are capping trading a little. Mixed bids, stops seen around the 1.2540-50 area.

Now, let's see if this changes things ...
Any short-term charters out there who have a clue ?

edit: Well, I went semi-long on the demo spot FX account. I have a much higher "pain threshold" on that one. :D

edit2: forgot it's past RTH margins time ... well, it just went choppy into the close - just what seemed likely after the dip.

(wow, my 911-post :eek: )

 
Quote from illiquid:

Very nice catch chinook.

Yeah a probe of downside seems warranted -- no one who just woke up this morning and went long EUR for a position trade deserves to make any money :)

Edit: or more specifically, no one who just woke up and bought EUR should get a free ride with stops at breakeven.
More...

That was Gringinho not me--I was sleeping deep this morning :) I was planning to do one more day of simulations but ended up sleeping in. Tomorrow, I'll be back to real life! Nice job Gringinho.
 
This is from my health insurance company. I'll make it a habit of practicing this twice during the trading sessions. After doing this several times, I became more alert to when I'm getting stressed out.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Undo Your Stress

We all get stressed. Our bodies respond to stress with muscle tension. We are like a parked car with the engine revving. And when we get this way, it is common for others to tell us, "Relax! Just calm down and let it go." If only it were that easy.

Well, maybe it can be. You expressed interest in learning progressive muscle relaxation (PMR). This is a simple, very effective technique for teaching you how to "relax and let go" of the muscle tension in your body. It is based on the reality that you cannot be physically relaxed and stressed–out at the same time.

Where does stress hit you the most? You often feel fatigued. Stress can cause us to tense our muscles without even knowing it. Over time, that constant state of tension uses up all our energy and leaves us feeling exhausted.

PMR helps you pay attention to your body and learn the difference between tense and relaxed muscles. It teaches you an easy way to relax all of your muscles during times when you have stress from your finances. Practice PMR by doing the activity in the box below. The next page will also give you more information on PMR.

PMR: From Top to Bottom

Find a quiet, comfortable place to sit or lie down. We recommend closing your eyes while doing PMR. Here are the simple steps for each muscle group, starting at your head and moving down to your feet.

Take a few slow, deep breaths, in through your nose, out through your mouth. Tighten the muscle groups in the order below, holding each for five seconds. Really feel the tension. Then, silently say, "Relax. Let it go." as you quickly relax the muscles and let go of the tension. Relax for 15 seconds. Then go on to the next muscle group and repeat the steps.

Forehead: wrinkle forehead

Face: frown, squeeze eyes shut, tighten cheeks

Mouth: open your mouth as wide as you can, tightening the jaw

Neck: turn left, turn right, then tilt chin down to chest

Chest: push chest out, shoulders back

Stomach: breathe in, then tighten stomach muscles

Back: arch your back, pushing shoulder blades together

Arms and hands: make fists then flex your bicep muscles

Buttocks and thighs: squeeze and tighten

Legs and feet: straighten legs out, curling toes down and away
 
I'm waiting for my short entry here. At this time, I'll short after a quick runup to 1.2610 in the December contract.

Edit: OK short entry revised to 1.2603

Edit: Went long at 1.2590.
 
I'm at a total loss of what to do right now. The run up earlier and the downturn now has me out of sync. I have taken no trades ... and I guess I might have missed out on some sleep to be able to trade efficiently. I will wait for the US equities market open to see if I can't find something to do.

Also, I was looking at firewall software programs ... figure that. :)
 
Quote from Gringinho:

I'm at a total loss of what to do right now. The run up earlier and the downturn now has me out of sync. I have taken no trades ... and I guess I might have missed out on some sleep to be able to trade efficiently. I will wait for the US equities market open to see if I can't find something to do.

Also, I was looking at firewall software programs ... figure that. :)
More...

The runup and downturn made a full cycle--we're back to the background level.

I couldn't sleep well last night (only about two hours) after my monster 13 hours bedtime Wed. nite. Fuzziness in my mind is creeping up...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top