Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Distillate inv dropped 2.5 mn instead of expected 990k-1.1mn, but it's just applying some hurt and taking the less expected route on the numbers, most probably reversed or got out on the dip.

I think QM/EuroFX will unpeg with the proximity to 1.24 ... otherwise it's down again.

edit: markets seems to be overtrading now, with mixed news. I will call it a day for now. +26 on various scalps is ok.
Choppiness will perhaps set in again.

edit2: seems a little down from the 1.2390's but that's probably the choppiness setting in.
 
Couldn't resist a quite safe short from there, and now I'm definitely stopping, with 36 tick profits now, on 7 trades.

edit: seems QM and 6E are still a little pegged, but I don't see them doing any big moves together. Choppy doldrums are already here.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Couldn't resist a quite safe short from there, and now I'm definitely stopping, with 36 tick profits now, on 7 trades.

edit: seems QM and 6E are still a little pegged, but I don't see them doing any big moves together. Choppy doldrums are already here.
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That's a good average per trade--nicely done.

I have a feeling that EURUSD might grind up for the rest of the day.
 
Thanks,
seems like Thomson also descibes the market as slowly creeping upwards and frustrating the traders (I guess the overtrading signs I saw) with soft volumes and central banks limiting breakouts on both sides (I guess they mean over the medium term - not esp. today) and the trading range imposed on traders.

I think it looks like a deadly chop ... with some undiscovered effects of QM etc. -- well, copper and other commodities also are fragile with the "china is slowing down!"-screaming. :)

Back around my short entry again, but I'm sitting on my hands now. Thomson also raised their stop to 1.2340 and will bail on a 1.2420 failure.
 
The chop is very much in for some splatter, although volumes are bleak.
Hey, it just rammed it down a little to 1.2382-ish.
Well, just the same as the little higher constrained range we saw earlier. Running stops now and applying the hatchet. Trying to guess where the range and hatchets will appear next is the key (need to get out with those profits, or get the onion-tears going). :D
 
Quote from chinook:

What's the time-frame of these Thomson trades?
You're right the volume dried up last 20-30 minutes.
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I think they mostly go for positions and stay in them until they hit either a stop or a target - although they adapt targets somewhat - like the "go flat on 1.2420 failure" - kind of vague.

If you remember they also show a list of support, resistance levels and commented strategies on failures, breaks of those. They seem to be almost "obsessed" by the 61.8% fibonacci retracements, and always spin a lot of comments on those.

The chop now would have been mostly bad for my trading, I think; sitting on my hands was ok, although the market went as predicted.

edit: maybe we will see a bigger chop into the margin-change of 14:45 EST.
 
Quote from FX MENTOR:
did anyone catch this mornings rally?
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I overslept, and only got to trading around 09:15 EST. Two shorts and one long trade all for 10 ticks profits ... I was a little sleepy and didn't even realize the Michigan Consumer Confidence was upon me on the second short, before seeing the orderbook was almost blank.

I really enjoy this level, because of the increased base fund valuation - but I hope we see some real breakout soon with Bush on the defensive in the election and deficits seen being a tough nut.

Otherwise I would prefer the mid 1.23-ish ranges for continued uncertainty. I seldom get on these rallies anyway, because I don't play position before the numbers. I prefer to scalp when I see the action and turnover is hot - then the support/resistance is getting simplistic and the waves of pressure down/up is sustained for longer moves.
Today was a real cakewalk in that respect, although I paused just below the last 1.2480-stalling and didn't follow or watch the break upwards through 1.25 and the subsequent fall to low 1.2470s now.

Need a pause after this, to not jeopardize winnings.
:)
 
because i work so many double shifts at the airport i have little time to watch the market. as you can see i seldom have time to talk to you guys. soon i won't have to work so hard at the airport and i will be able to trade more. by the time i saw the screen i was like wow! i can't wait to refund my account. im missing some great moves. dont get me wrong i do have a morsal left at which to trade with but i must be conservative and take certain trades. as if there were such a thing as 'certain' trades.:)
 
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