Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from Gringinho:

I was watching a film and the debate, so it was kind of "positioning", but I got out of this last short this morning at a 5 pip loss, since it hadn't moved any significantly, and I didn't want the demo trade go into the deficit number.
:)

Will have to reevaluate with new information and new reactions.
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This thing crept up in a short trap style overnight. I'm flat now. Let's see how deep the spike(s) will be :) Good luck
 
A little long from around 1.2390-area, will have to be careful, got 10 pips down from close to the top, but will look for more. Doing great right now .. another 8 ticks on the EuroFX.

Well, that 18 ticks profit is feeling good. :)
 
Seems that we're heading back to the area of yesterday, and now I don't have a clue if I should adopt a long bias or short bias. Will have to wait for a really good opportunity, which might not get here.

edit: Thomson is long at 1.2379 with target 1.2540 and stop 1.2315.
I too think that the worse than expected deficit is €-positive in a big way, but because of the upcoming election I guess we would see some strong political convictions flavouring the markets.
 
I don't get how Thomson could have done that 1.2378 entry so quickly, unless they had it already triggered and configured in. That's a bit different from how I'm trading, but seeing as they do quite well on a number of position trades I will try and look at their advice better and also how they get their entries.

I did not have the courage to jump in on the way up from the 1.2375-area and towards 1.24 ... but seeing the stalling at the top was a piece of cake, just that my way of trading makes me enter a target really quick -- and when it's hit I'm not sorry, but it could always be improved. Trying to be "perfect" on the moves is something I would never strive for, as that only happens once in a blue moon. :)

edit: they're trying to break back through the 1.2375 which could get some bouncing opportunities, or slides ... seems like running stops down or slide ... hmm, gotta wait still. 1.2370 on EuroFX.

edit2: got in on possibly bounce below 1.2370 :) target 4-6 ticks.
edit3: 4 it was. (US equity open always shakes a little)

edit4: I see wizardtrader did almost the exact same trade as me, only he got in a tick better than me. :)

edit5: with 1.2360 I would start calling it a slide, and I think Thomson will have to wait some for their profit target ... :)
 
Now I'll wait for inventory numbers, and a build less or equal to 1 mn will mean going long on dips, I guess. More than 3 mn will probably mean a little slide - more profittaking .. well, acording to energy traders on Bloomberg, anyways. I obviously also think EuroFX will peg on QM a little.

Revised numbers probably also are interesting for overall bias.

edit: that's some pressure mounting to break over 1.2375 again.
 
According to Thomson/www.ifrmarkets.com a US investment bank did some sell of 650-700 mn € from above 1.24 all the way down to 1.2365. Stops rumoured around 1.2340-45 according to dealers.

I think direction will be laid out by the inventory numbers (in ca. 15 mins) for the remainder of the day.

edit: renewed big wigs pressuring 1.2375 upwards with hefty order flashing.

edit2: looking at charts, there is a lot of trading around this level.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

According to Thomson/www.ifrmarkets.com a US investment bank did some sell of 650-700 mn € from above 1.24 all the way down to 1.2365. Stops rumoured around 1.2340-45 according to dealers.

I think direction will be laid out by the inventory numbers (in ca. 15 mins) for the remainder of the day.

edit: renewed big wigs pressuring 1.2375 upwards with hefty order flashing.
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We also have the treasury budget coming out at 2pm EST.

The correlation between crude oil and EURUSD seems to be little bit weak today.
 
Quote from chinook:

We also have the treasury budget coming out at 2pm EST.

The correlation between crude oil and EURUSD seems to be little bit weak today.
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Calm before the storm in 3 minutes. I was thinking about the directional bias.
It certainly seems EuroFX is going long before the inventory numbers.


edit: more than 4mn barrels is ok, although QM rebounds.
edit2: seems it was pegging with QM around/over 54 again and EuroFX over 1.2390.
 
Strong reversal in QM. Do you know what caused the reversal? It kind of tanked after the number but I guess some people used this opportunity to load up on crude oil. Let's see if Euro will test the highs...

Edit: I'm glad I'm not trading QM intraday, it's such a beast. It trades very "spikey" with sudden reversals.
 
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