Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from chinook:

This almost spiked up like some kind of news coming in. Oil and bond were creeping up slowly.
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Yup, but the stakes were obviously high and where I thought we'd see some narrow trading band towards the end of the day ... hey, surprise! volatility is back for a quick visit.

I'm a happy camper now with 7-8 ticks profit (after commission - which didn't grow that bad - because I just watched mostly), and with base in € as well, it's at least not a red day.

I like this territory much better for going into tomorrow's deficit number and also the election .. hopefully having some narrow trading towards the election - save for the last , say, 2 trading days or something.
 
Quote from TradingWise:

wow, was that rally really from the DOW below 10k??
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Supposedly after some grinding upwards of stop-loss shorts until around 1.2280-90, then a "predatory US fund jumped in" and ran it upwards as it sensed market was short and hurting. Also a US bank put out a "research piece on comments from Fed speakers talking down the dollar" - all according to Thomson Financial.

Then the rest worked in symphony I guess - collateral damage. :)

Now, what does all that tell us for the probable next move ? :D
I'd say: 1.2300, here we come!
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Supposedly after some grinding upwards of stop-loss shorts until around 1.2280-90, then a "predatory US fund jumped in" and ran it upwards as it sensed market was short and hurting. Also a US bank put out a "research piece on comments from Fed speakers talking down the dollar" - all according to Thomson Financial.

Then the rest worked in symphony I guess - collateral damage. :)

Now, what does all that tell us for the probable next move ? :D
I'd say: 1.2300, here we come!
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The comment makes sense. Up until 1.2280 it really felt like some small shorts closing positions rather than going long. I wonder how they got info regarding a predatory US fund sensing the market being short...
 
Quote from chinook:

The comment makes sense. Up until 1.2280 it really felt like some small shorts closing positions rather than going long. I wonder how they got info regarding a predatory US fund sensing the market being short...
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Bank dealers and other big fish talk amongst themselves about clients etc. I guess. Read e.g New Market Wizards book, and the first interview. Outdated story, but interesting.
 
.. this last debate will get some reactions in the markets ? I will be looking for clues both in the markets, and the performance .. so tonight might show us something of what others are gearing up to do in the days ahead.
Well, ok, it could be just sitting tight for a while, but I think the markets are open to some plays tonight.

Thomson is short at 1.2345, and incidentally - so am I. They have a 1.2285 target for a 1.2275 test, and they have a 1.2365 stop.
:cool:

edit: I will have one eye on the QM though, the energy biz is a true nemesis.
 
Looking good with a 20 tick gain on that position now. Will probably have an eye on any retracements around 1.2330 now. Otherwise it's just as good to let it run at least 10 ticks more to 1.2315 .. I think my absolute target will be 1.2300-05 area for 40-45 ticks. :)

That QM well above 54 is very ominous though.

Also, the debate gives some food to thought for the EURUSD for sure.
edit: I'm scaling out some here ... half a position left.
 
Well, scaled out all the rest a short while afterwards on EuroFX.

On my spot demo I actually went a little long to see if I would swing the momentum right. It's always easy to get that 100% return in a week or so when trading spot FX demo. I saw the spike down on FXCM, and that was a typical tell-tale sign too - of the old run-the-stop hee-haw. Another 30 pips added to the 20 earlier on the demo account - up to 1.2355, while the EuroFX gave the first roughly 20 ticks down.
I'm flat for now on - the nightly session (local time here) might see some action , esp. the european scene, and I'm not risking anything from this level right now, with Bush not having a very solid performance according to polls. Remember, personal opinions don't matter as much as the polls when it comes to the markets and their popular talk, rumours.

Don't have the latest QM prices, but I don't think we'll see 1.24 quite yet, unless some got spooked and goes into an energy-cave-dwelling hibernation.

More pain means more down for now.
edit: well, I shorted 1.2358 on the spot demo, target 1.2335, but won't risk real money. Just for kicks.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Looking good with a 20 tick gain on that position now. Will probably have an eye on any retracements around 1.2330 now. Otherwise it's just as good to let it run at least 10 ticks more to 1.2315 .. I think my absolute target will be 1.2300-05 area for 40-45 ticks. :)

That QM well above 54 is very ominous though.

Also, the debate gives some food to thought for the EURUSD for sure.
edit: I'm scaling out some here ... half a position left.
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Good job! I took the night off and went to to the gym and then some drinking activity :)
 
Quote from chinook:

Good job! I took the night off and went to to the gym and then some drinking activity :)
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I was watching a film and the debate, so it was kind of "positioning", but I got out of this last short this morning at a 5 pip loss, since it hadn't moved any significantly, and I didn't want the demo trade go into the deficit number.
:)

Will have to reevaluate with new information and new reactions.
 
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