Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
G7 and Yuan will be in focus - as well as talks about lower USD to correct deficits. We will see higher EUR across and mixed USD/JPY with both having mixed outlooks I think.
edit:
I think I'll be off again - no easy riding choppers here. Stopping at a loss right now of -3 pips on 5 trades. Will try and break-even on a trade later tonight. It's worth trying "one more trade" ...
We're seeing a slow creep upwards until the margin change hour and then the end of RTH - by which we'll see at least 1.2410 I think.
[17:14 EUR/USD: No Let Up In Pressure, 1.2450s Being Protected] Boston, September 30: Traders smell a trend, at long last, and are not inclined to let up the pressure despite month-end today and the G7 tomorrow. The G7 is seen as a USD neutral with a small chance of a USD negative if some sort of deal with China can be banged out, but few see that as imminent. 1.2450 exotics are being defended on rallies this afternoon, and are expected to hold the bulls at bay. EUR/USD trades at 1.2430.
(at least Thomson agree with me
, but it's just the popular talk lately and a given )Chinook, I am not teling you how to trade because that would be foolish and anyway you may be the best trader in the world (and I could be the worst).
I can only tell you what suits my personality and what hopefully works for me. If I try to scalp for a few pips here and there I know I am trading without a real plan and that I could have 10 'successes' in a row but the chance are I would lose all the gains on the 11rh trade. I trade news, break outs and also if a currency has been trending upwards I will look to buy it on a retracement. I have not made any significant profits today mind (and have been hugely frustrated) because I got nervous about all the recent price action around 1.2350/65 and so decided to sit it out. Once the big move had then happened in a few minutes I knew that by trading I would be trying to compensate for my missed opportunity and would probably lose. What I would certainly never do today though is have looked to try and pick a top on the euro once it broke 1.2370 - to me that is a mugs game. Look at the reaction to the strong PMI figures - the dollar managed a 10 pip rally.
I hope this may help you crystalise your own thoughts even if it is because you strongly disagree (probably rightly!) with everything I have written.
I can only tell you what suits my personality and what hopefully works for me. If I try to scalp for a few pips here and there I know I am trading without a real plan and that I could have 10 'successes' in a row but the chance are I would lose all the gains on the 11rh trade. I trade news, break outs and also if a currency has been trending upwards I will look to buy it on a retracement. I have not made any significant profits today mind (and have been hugely frustrated) because I got nervous about all the recent price action around 1.2350/65 and so decided to sit it out. Once the big move had then happened in a few minutes I knew that by trading I would be trying to compensate for my missed opportunity and would probably lose. What I would certainly never do today though is have looked to try and pick a top on the euro once it broke 1.2370 - to me that is a mugs game. Look at the reaction to the strong PMI figures - the dollar managed a 10 pip rally.
I hope this may help you crystalise your own thoughts even if it is because you strongly disagree (probably rightly!) with everything I have written.
Lon Eagle,
You make a lot of sense. I agree with what you wrote. Regarding scalping, I'm the same way and I can't keep up with it since it's very demanding.
I do have a very good and simple trading plan. I spent lot of time developing it. But the problem is some days I can follow it fine but others I don't stick to the plan and overtrade. Now I look back and say I can't believe I did it. The funny thing is I was well aware that I was trading very bad but still I didn't stop or switch to the plan. Anyway, these days at least I 'm aware when I'm making mistakes. Hopefully, soon I'll be able to stop myself and steer in the correct direction.
Thanks again.
You make a lot of sense. I agree with what you wrote. Regarding scalping, I'm the same way and I can't keep up with it since it's very demanding.
I do have a very good and simple trading plan. I spent lot of time developing it. But the problem is some days I can follow it fine but others I don't stick to the plan and overtrade. Now I look back and say I can't believe I did it. The funny thing is I was well aware that I was trading very bad but still I didn't stop or switch to the plan. Anyway, these days at least I 'm aware when I'm making mistakes. Hopefully, soon I'll be able to stop myself and steer in the correct direction.
Thanks again.
This is great advice, and something to consider when you get the urge to trade outside your plan because you missed the move or feel frustrated.
Put it this way, imagine if *every* trade you placed that didn't adhere to your original plan resulted in a loss? Wouldn't that actually be the best thing that could ever happen to you? Because the more times you get "saved" by impulse trading or overleveraging in order to "get it back", the more you will be tempted to do the same in the future when things go sour.
In any case, I'm sure you know all this already, and I empathize with you. I don't know how often I've repeated that same mistake ad infinitum, so don't think I'm trying to preach at you from atop a hill. It is THE achilles heel for my trading career in general, and something I need to be vigilant for each day I power up the computer.
I know what you mean about making money with trades outside of the plan. Quite a few days have been saved by these "chance" trades and thus strengthened the bad habit. That's why I started keeping track of how much I stick to my plan beside daily P/L.
I know I have this bad habit, I don't know how to cure it yet. But at least I'm aware of it and I take full responsibility for it.
I think most of us fall into this trap every now and then. As long as there is no way to stop us from doing mistakes, the best thing we can do is try and identify when it's happening and thus try and control it.
Also, looking at the many tries at range breakout the last few weeks (last month?) it also adds to trading frustration. Looking at today's chart - it's a "trending day".
Why try and counter-trade it ? Revenge-trading, right ?
Finally - let's face it - not all systems work every day - all day long, especially when there's basically just a few big moves per day. Staying out of trades - just picking the ones you "know" are right helps rescue those days - especially if one realizes that the system don't work that day.
Trying to stick to my short bias above 1.2415 today was very stubborn - and mostly wrong - as long as I try and stay within timelimits and no overnight positions.
[21:33 US Treasury Will Act Aggressively To Get China FX Reform-Reuters] Sydney, October 1: Reuters is reporting that a participant at a meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials indicated that the U.S. will act "as aggressively as necessary" to get China to reform its FX policy. The report goes on to say that U.S. Treasury Secretary made the case for China to move towards a more flexible exchange rate at a faster pace. The comments are sure to heat up the debate on whether or not FX will be one of the main issues at G7.
[20:01 GMT 30th Sept] EUR/USD sky-rocketed at the US open, lead higher by large buying from a sovereign name out of the Middle East which took out barriers at 1.2350, 1.2400 and 1.2425. Heavy buying of EUR/USD from overlay accounts further underpinned the pair as the EUR finally looks to be shaking off its ranges and requiring investors and corporates to do a little hedging for a change. Barriers remain at 1.2450, 60 and 75 and are being heavily defended at present. News that Israel is launching a large military offensive in Gaza may or may not be coincident with the Middle Eastern move to dump the greenback. The timing is curious though, and certainly raised some eyebrows. US Treasuries were heavily sold this morning, raising fears that foreign cash was being pulled out of the US, but the losses moderated as the day went on. Interest rate differentials are more favorable toward the dollar at 20 bp in 10s from 13 bp yesterday. 1.2465 is the next technical hurdle for EUR/USD. 1.2380/90 is now support amid bright technical prospects.
[19:10 EUR/USD: At Session Highs As Sharon Approves Extensive Ops ] Boston, September 30: Some suspect the Middle Eastern bid in EUR/USD today stems from Israel"s move to broaden its military offensive against terrorism from Gaza. If the offensive turns into a more generalized battle, expect geopolitical jitters to rise and undermine the dollar. Options defense ahead of 1.2450 is being whittled away. More barriers are seen at 1.2460, 75 and 1.2500. 1.2390 is support now on dips.