Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

[Gringinho]

Well, we've been walking all over that 1.2425 on the spot now ... so it's losing it's significance.
But I gotta admit this is very unsafe waters - and I'm marginally b/e. 4 pips on 3 trades.
I do not want to get into the small action of the last weeks and will try to aim for less commissions and larger targets like I used to before. It's very tireing to go for all those small profits.
That also means staying out of the early afternoon trading a lot. It's already starting to wind down a little.

 

[chinook]

Today we have kind of porky pine type charts! It looks it's going down then spikes back up and makes a higher high and then immediately pulls back.

Yes, tell me about these short lasting trades. They just suck the energy out of me. I'm hoping for a trend down day from here. I already overtraded this morning.

 

[Ebo]

There are sharks in these waters above 1.2400!
I just got an interesting "SELL" signal @ 1.2423 on a 15 min.

 

[chinook]

Quote from Ebo:

There are sharks in these waters above 1.2400!

Yes, these sharks are small and they keep on biting my account! Who is buying I'm very curious. They don't miss a single dip today.

I also just shorted at 1.2423 (futures). I'm crossing my fingers, arms and legs

 

[trade-ya1]

I'm still buying, hello~

 

[Ebo]

I knew there were hungry sharks!

 

[chinook]

Quote from chinook:

Yes, these sharks are small and they keep on biting my account! Who is buying I'm very curious. They don't miss a single dip today.

I also just shorted at 1.2423 (futures). I'm crossing my fingers, arms and legs

Almost stopped out. What a day. Slowly getting chipped away.

 

[chinook]

Quote from trade-ya1:

I'm still buying, hello~

Nice. I've been seling to you all morning. I beg you please it's time to collect your profits

 

[trade-ya1]

No thank you, I'm very hungry.

 

[Gringinho]

I would say we're looking short to about 1.2410-ish on the spot. At least there are some competitive views out there - and these last weeks have shown a lot of carnage.


[16:29 FX OPTIONS: EUR Vols Spring Higher, But Traders Cautious] New York, September 30: Hopes for a break out of the recent coiling action in the Dollar are running high after today" sharp slide across the board against major currencies. It"s interesting to see the rise in 1-month EUR/USD vols since those maturities are inside the Nov. election date. There has been plenty of calendar trades to be short vols ahead of the election and long vols beyond that date. This us flattening the option vol curve today, but most traders are cautious in buying fresh long vol positions given the recent failed breakouts. Some suggest a move in spot above 1.2550 is needed for broad vol buying from the corporate sector and the general forex market.
1-month EUR/USD vols rose 0.25% to 8.85% and the and the Risk Reversal steadied at 0.3% favoring EUR calls. The option barriers at 1.2350, 1.2370, 1.2400 and 1.2420/25 have all been triggered today, but very large ones are said to rest at 1.2450. 1-month USD/CHF vols rose 0.25% to 9.50% and the RR steadied at -0.25% favoring CHF calls. Some 1.5550 strikes expired in EUR/CHF today, with barriers at the same set for expiration tomorrow. 1-month GBP/USD vols rose 0.2% to 7.75% and the RR steadied at flat (no bias).

[15:41 EUR/USD: Consolidating Gains After Fixing] Boston, September 30: Real money and overlay accounts were big buyers of EUR/USD at the month-end fixing but the orders were heavily front-run and did not create much additional upside. EUR/USD appears to have topped out for today, and is likely to consolidate for the rest of the session. Look for 1.2380/90 to contain dips near-term.