Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
I was mostly short biased today. After some initial chop, I caught most of the downside move and exited at the bottom. I had a decent profit at that time. Then, I started shorting the 15-20 pips bounces. This thing crept up much more than I predicted. I got stopped out several times. Here are my ratings of my trading:
Risk: 40%
Entries: 40%
Exits/Stops: 90%
Overall: 53% , WEAK!
Not good!
I still have an open trade...I'm around breakeven/slight loss territory....
Risk: 40%
Entries: 40%
Exits/Stops: 90%
Overall: 53% , WEAK!
Not good!
I still have an open trade...I'm around breakeven/slight loss territory....
Nice to see that thel predictions of late of 1.2340-ish, 1.2315-dip and finally a 1.24 became reality - although I didn't do any position trading. Having funds in ⬠makes up for that difference a little though. 
Maybe I have to get into some trading after all today ... at least a little later on - as running stops still seems the theme.
(gotta love the humour in this next one ...
)
[12:33 EUR/USD: Middle Eastern Finger Prints Found At Scene Of Crime] Boston, September 30: The forensic investigators are at work, and the preliminary report is that Middle Eastern names bought between EUR 2-3 bln on the run up to 1.2420. 1.2425 barriers are being tested as US jobless claims ticked up to 369k from 350k. 1.2465 is next resistance of note, the July 19 high. 1.2385 is support on dips.
[12:14 EUR/USD: Surprise Attack Turns Clears Major Hurdles] Boston, September 30: EUR/USD has cleared out a slew of technical resistance in the 1.2365/85 area on this morning"s surprising rally with many still caught short. Look for the 1.2385 level to now provide firm support on dips. Dealers still are having trouble pining the rally on any one source, but they point to thin month-end conditions as a contributing factor. Barriers lie at 1.2425.
[11:54 EUR/USD: Heavy Stop Loss Buying Vaults Spot Higher] The EUR hasn"t looked back after taking out key option and technical levels at 1.2350, 1.2380 and 1.2400. Japanese demand for EUR was noted into the 1.2350 region, meeting persistent US investment house offers but these were eventually pulled and a wave of stop loss buying has been noted by a variety of accounts. Some of this interest was spec related, while other accounts had to buy spot once option levels at 1.2380 and 1.2400 were taken out. The next level are barriers reportedly located at 1.2420/25, but the market appears to have an appetite to sell dollars and these could be under threat in thin trading conditions .
<pre>| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 1.2710(M) |daily high Feb 24 |take profit, buy break | [LONG at]
: 1.2540(S) |daily high Mar 1 |take profit/buy break | [1.2388]
: 1.2485(S) |61.8% of 1.2930 - 1.1760 |flat on a failure |
: 1.2465(M) |daily high Jul 19 |flat on a failure |Open|30/09/04
[1.2409] 12:30 GMT THU 30 SEP : | TIME 11 48|
: 1.2360(M) |spike high Sep 24 |sell stops 1.2355 | |
: 1.2290(M) |pullback lows Sept 29 |buy a bounce |TGT |1.2535
: 1.2240(M) |daily low Sept 24 |buy a bounce |Stop|1.2355
: 1.2225(M) |range low Sept 22 |buy a bounce |
============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre>Impressive rally through the 1.2380 level and we have been drawn into the move Long play on board at 1.2388 and ready to ride out any corrective action. Intraday studies clearly over the line and into overbought territory and with the daily picture also looking over cooked the risk is for a sharp pullback. We have set a tightish stop to protect. [11:58 GMT]
Maybe I have to get into some trading after all today ... at least a little later on - as running stops still seems the theme.
(gotta love the humour in this next one ...
)[12:33 EUR/USD: Middle Eastern Finger Prints Found At Scene Of Crime] Boston, September 30: The forensic investigators are at work, and the preliminary report is that Middle Eastern names bought between EUR 2-3 bln on the run up to 1.2420. 1.2425 barriers are being tested as US jobless claims ticked up to 369k from 350k. 1.2465 is next resistance of note, the July 19 high. 1.2385 is support on dips.
[12:14 EUR/USD: Surprise Attack Turns Clears Major Hurdles] Boston, September 30: EUR/USD has cleared out a slew of technical resistance in the 1.2365/85 area on this morning"s surprising rally with many still caught short. Look for the 1.2385 level to now provide firm support on dips. Dealers still are having trouble pining the rally on any one source, but they point to thin month-end conditions as a contributing factor. Barriers lie at 1.2425.
[11:54 EUR/USD: Heavy Stop Loss Buying Vaults Spot Higher] The EUR hasn"t looked back after taking out key option and technical levels at 1.2350, 1.2380 and 1.2400. Japanese demand for EUR was noted into the 1.2350 region, meeting persistent US investment house offers but these were eventually pulled and a wave of stop loss buying has been noted by a variety of accounts. Some of this interest was spec related, while other accounts had to buy spot once option levels at 1.2380 and 1.2400 were taken out. The next level are barriers reportedly located at 1.2420/25, but the market appears to have an appetite to sell dollars and these could be under threat in thin trading conditions .
<pre>| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 1.2710(M) |daily high Feb 24 |take profit, buy break | [LONG at]
: 1.2540(S) |daily high Mar 1 |take profit/buy break | [1.2388]
: 1.2485(S) |61.8% of 1.2930 - 1.1760 |flat on a failure |
: 1.2465(M) |daily high Jul 19 |flat on a failure |Open|30/09/04
[1.2409] 12:30 GMT THU 30 SEP : | TIME 11 48|
: 1.2360(M) |spike high Sep 24 |sell stops 1.2355 | |
: 1.2290(M) |pullback lows Sept 29 |buy a bounce |TGT |1.2535
: 1.2240(M) |daily low Sept 24 |buy a bounce |Stop|1.2355
: 1.2225(M) |range low Sept 22 |buy a bounce |
============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre>Impressive rally through the 1.2380 level and we have been drawn into the move Long play on board at 1.2388 and ready to ride out any corrective action. Intraday studies clearly over the line and into overbought territory and with the daily picture also looking over cooked the risk is for a sharp pullback. We have set a tightish stop to protect. [11:58 GMT]
[13:25 EUR/USD: Reports Now Of Mid-East Profit-Taking] Boston, September 30: EUR/USD is back below 1.2300 with reports of profit-taking from Middle Eastern names making the rounds. Rising US bond yields may be taking some of the steam out of the EUR rally as well as interest rate differentials widen out to 19 bp in 10 years, up about 6 bp on the day. Support is seen on the daily charts at 1.2385, on the hourlies at 1.2345.
[13:08 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD 1mth Vol Pivoting 9% - 1.24 Expiry Tomorrow] London, September 30: 1mth implied option volatility is currently pivoting the 9.0 pct level, as it consolidates gains from a session low 8.55/8.7 fuelled by spot"s erasing of exotic barriers at 1.2350, 1.2370, 1.2380, 1.2400, and 1.2420.Expect further upward pressure on the 1mth towards 9.5/9.7 (Sep 13 high) if the underlying extends north through 1.2450--where another exotic barrier resides. Yet more barriers are located at 1.2460, 1.2475, 1.2500, 1.2520, 1.2545, and 1.2550, and 1.2600. On the upcoming expiry front: a large 1.2400 plain-vanilla strike rolls off at the NY cut tomorrow (Friday, 14:00GMT).
[13:08 EUR/USD: Consolidating After Stalling At 1.2424] Boston, September 30: EUR/USD is tired after doing loads of heavy lifting this morning. The pair made a run for the 1.2425 barrier after the US data but came up short, and is now in consolidation mode above 1.2400. Dealers are trying to ascribe motives to the Middle Eastern buying earlier in the session. The consensus seems to be that it is little more than reserve diversification owing to the huge revenue growth into the region on the back of the big spike in oil prices in recent months. 1.2380/85 should provide support on dips as should 1.2345/50.
[13:08 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD 1mth Vol Pivoting 9% - 1.24 Expiry Tomorrow] London, September 30: 1mth implied option volatility is currently pivoting the 9.0 pct level, as it consolidates gains from a session low 8.55/8.7 fuelled by spot"s erasing of exotic barriers at 1.2350, 1.2370, 1.2380, 1.2400, and 1.2420.Expect further upward pressure on the 1mth towards 9.5/9.7 (Sep 13 high) if the underlying extends north through 1.2450--where another exotic barrier resides. Yet more barriers are located at 1.2460, 1.2475, 1.2500, 1.2520, 1.2545, and 1.2550, and 1.2600. On the upcoming expiry front: a large 1.2400 plain-vanilla strike rolls off at the NY cut tomorrow (Friday, 14:00GMT).
[13:08 EUR/USD: Consolidating After Stalling At 1.2424] Boston, September 30: EUR/USD is tired after doing loads of heavy lifting this morning. The pair made a run for the 1.2425 barrier after the US data but came up short, and is now in consolidation mode above 1.2400. Dealers are trying to ascribe motives to the Middle Eastern buying earlier in the session. The consensus seems to be that it is little more than reserve diversification owing to the huge revenue growth into the region on the back of the big spike in oil prices in recent months. 1.2380/85 should provide support on dips as should 1.2345/50.
Yes, it's time to take out the stomach medication! Bonds didn't react well to the numbers so far. I'm hoping that EURUSD will eventually follow the bonds. EURUSD seems to be "artificially" holding up. I'm on the short side. My submarine took couple of torpedos this morning but it's still functioning