Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Refco Fx is also squeezing or having some problems. Quoting 1.2336 when FXCM and EuroFx was around 1.2310-ish. They did the same just now, and earlier too. Perhaps they have some problems - letting them have the benefit of the doubt . :p
 
Quote from Ebo:

That was a thing of beauty!
A few people fell out of the tree on that shakeout.
I got lucky at .2330.
Gotta keep an eye on these QM spikes.
I am flat.
:D :D :D
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Yeah I fell down like a hungry bear from a tree! Now I might get shaken out from my longs too.
 
I thought the spike will have follow thru on the long side after a 15-20 pips pullback...My entry was OK, I rushed in little bit and paid +3 pips extra than what my charts were telling me. But # of contracts were too much for initial entry. Oh well, I guess the spike went through my head :)
 
It seems the quake spooked investors a bit and we're in for some slow range trading above the pivotal 1.2315 (on the spot). With asian profittaking in EURJPY and capping EURUSD we might not get anywhere for some while.
While I wasn't not quick enough to get out on my long at the spike, I got out later a little by little. Not bad with 43 pips for the day - feeling a lot better than yesterday.
The indiscriminate chopping was not so evident today - although there were shakeouts to be found. Will pass the asian session unless something good comes up. :)

edit:
Just entered another trade to try some position trading for a change. Will try and reach 1.2355 on 6EZ4 with this one from 1.2312 as I will not be able to trade actively the next few days. Lets see how a small position fares ... :)
Sizing out towards 1.2230 and adding above 1.2335.
 
Now, it's time to evaluate myself. The evaluation is based on how much I stuck to my plan not how much I made or lost.

Risk is based on initial # of contracts x stop. And I give it a weight of two relative to Entries and Stop following/exits

Risk : 75%

Entries: 50%

Stop following/Exits: 90%

Overall=73%

OK. Not bad. I need to watch out my entries and make sure that I don't abuse leverage.

Edit: OK, final number's in: I made an average of +9pips/contract today.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

It seems the quake spooked investors a bit and we're in for some slow range trading above the pivotal 1.2315 (on the spot). With asian profittaking in EURJPY and capping EURUSD we might not get anywhere for some while.
While I wasn't not quick enough to get out on my long at the spike, I got out later a little by little. Not bad with 43 pips for the day - feeling a lot better than yesterday.
The indiscriminate chopping was not so evident today - although there were shakeouts to be found. Will pass the asian session unless something good comes up. :)

edit:
Just entered another trade to try some position trading for a change. Will try and reach 1.2355 on 6EZ4 with this one from 1.2312 as I will not be able to trade actively the next few days. Lets see how a small position fares ... :)
Sizing out towards 1.2230 and adding above 1.2335.
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Good job. 43 is a nice number :)

Are you going to hold over the GDP number tomorrow?

I'm done until after the GDP number.
 
Quote from chinook:

Good job. 43 is a nice number :)
Are you going to hold over the GDP number tomorrow?
I'm done until after the GDP number.
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Yes, I'm doing something similar to when I traded the aug. NFP the night before.
(crossing my fingers.:D )

Well, the recent range frustration, false breakouts, OECD growth EU upgrade+downgrade of US and price levels indicates a biased reaction tomorrow - esp. in light of oil prices, hurricanes et al.

Also the recent capping activities - "supra-bank" rumours etc. makes it non-obvious that it might get higher. Traders are very careful because of the recent chopping and tight range - which may make running stops and getting new momentum easier on any strong move.

edit: doing nicely for now - GDP woes might just do the trick before the number tomorrow.
 
[22:23 EUR/USD: Cautiously Trending Higher] Sydney, September 29: The EUR/USD is being supported by the higher oil price and the EUR/JPY demand that the oil shock is creating. Lower long-term U.S. rates, weaker than expected U.S. data, the upcoming G7 meeting and news yesterday from a China daily that China might cut USD reserves have also combined to underpin the EUR/USD. Despite no shortage of justifications, the EUR/USD isn"t in a hurry to make a sustained break higher. There is talk that an Asian central bank capped the EUR/USD rally ahead of 1.2350 and that the same name is now on the bid at 1.2300. Traders report very good buying interest between 1.2280/10 and plenty of offers between 1.2330/50. EUR/JPY will be the main focus again today and how the oil price trades in the after-hours will be a key driver. We are looking for the EUR/USD to trade in a 1.2315/45 range in Asia today.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Seems DNS servers a failing for IB's servers. Check out a solution in http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=595749#post595749

PS! You guys might have a cached DNS lookup which might expire at a reboot, logout etc.
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I'm thinking of going with IB but quite frankly posts like this scare me. What exactly does "PS! You guys might have a cached DNS lookup which might expire at a reboot, logout etc. " mean? Exactly how often do you have technical problems (excluding API related stuff)?

Thanks,

TRADERguy
 
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