chinook, intersting stuff. Maybe I'll try and make a simulation of it in Java (scripted via
www.BeanShell.org 's interactive shell) to see if it can be applied to my style for those "early entries" I have.
So far a better day than yesterday, with nice action just before those retail-sales numbers and also into the RTH open. I guess the price level triggers a lot of interest. Could see no hint of that "supra-bank" that
www.IFRmarkets.com was wailing about around 1.2315-20 ... and the hangover is gone.
Up 13 pips in 2 trades so far. Unless we dip under 1.23 again I will try and play a possible range contained over 1.2315.
Not really any numbers to get the EURUSD going, but QM is as always worrying - weighing in especially on the JPY. German IFO continued it's decrease yesterday, so nothing to celebrate there.
I still think we're going 1.24 over the next weeks, can't help that gloomy USD bias - maybe some statements from G7/G8 could help making that field goal soon.
Also the "G20" is pretty anti-US, and Brazil's Lula seems to gain some momentum in both his exports and "solidarity policies". He's mostly gaining new ground in the asian markets now - but I think other things than raw materials are out of the question - as the more laborous brazilian products are of very low quality - like chinese products 10-20 yrs ago.
[13:19 EUR/USD: Issing Trying To Keep ECB in Stability Pact Debate] Boston, September 28: ECB Economist Issing says that there is room for compromise on a common EU/ECB stability pact. He says there are severe problems in present EU economic policy making and calls for more a more centralized EU fiscal policy. Sounds like a tough sell politically as the powers that be in the EU look to water down the stability pact after years of ignoring it outright. EUR/USD remains well bid, bolstered by soft US interest rates and skyrocketing oil. Option expiries are seen at 1.2350 this morning, with barriers still eyed at 1.2370 and 1.2380. EUR/USD trades at 1.2337.
Speaking about the Chinese holdings of US debts is ridicolous, as they have little to gain dumping USD right now. I can't believe anyone would speculate about it yet - there is no big trade conflict or current scenarios that indicate something like that could happen -- Scare Tactics.
[12:55 GMT 28th Sept] The Chinese hold USD496.2Bn in foreign exchange reserves, if they were to sell a chunk to lower their ratio of Dollars they USD could take a pounding. This is a given and what the markets have failed to realize is there is not a thing they can do about it. However, in the mean time the market has been left in a bit of a quandary; do they carry on trading and ignore the impending threat or do they take matters into their own hands and use market leverage to work the greenback lower. With the G7 meeting likely to discuss all these matters in great depth the markets seem to have moved into a holding pattern. [EUR/USD] has recently broken outside the European range but failed to move within striking distance of the vast number of option barriers that start at 1.2370, that block the way higher. US data in the form of consumer confidence due at 14:00 GMT could give the dollar a boost but the market is beginning to price in a weaker figure than the 99.0 consensus reading. The previous index was 98.2 and any figure below this level would see the option related selling under pressure and attempt to move [EUR/USD] above 1.2400 and through 1.2465 offers.
