Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

I agree with the market .. let's go long EUR ... :D

The lack of new signals from the FOMC is getting viewed as reactionary I think. Energy prices and next year outlook is weighing in.

edit: looking at index futures I'm sure glad I'm trading fx futures now ...


<pre>| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 1.2465(M) |daily high Jul 19 |flat on a failure | [FLAT at]
: 1.2385(M) |hourly highs Aug 16, 17 |flat on a failure | [1.2270]
: 1.2325(M) |daily high Aug 23 |flat on a failure |
: 1.2310(S) |high Sep 10, trendline |buy a sustained break |Open|21/09/04

[1.2272] 18:20 GMT TUE 21 SEP : | TIME 14 38|

: 1.2220(M) |hourly support Sept 21 |buy a bounce | |
: 1.2180(M) |previous range top Sept 21|buy a bounce |TGT |
: 1.2120(M) |daily low Sept 16 |sell a break below |Stop|
: 1.2090(M) |1% MA band base |cover on a bounce |
============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre>
A 46 pt profit was booked on our long trade this morning after prices failed to sustain a breakout above trendline and 200-day MA resistance in the 1.2265-70 area. Prices are now correcting overbought intraday studies with the initial objective at 1.2220, which is the 38.2% of 1.2125-1.2280 and a pivot pt on the daily charts. Buy a bounce from there.




edit: some confusion, though

[18:35 EUR/JPY: Breaks Above Ichimoku Cloud; Key Trend Line] San Francisco, September 21st: The Fed stance on measured rates should have been EUR/JPY negative with EUR bund yield spreads to JGBs still trading in a range that is hugging the multi-year lows on the cross. Instead, the cross has powered through the numerous resistance levels in the 135.05-10 area including the top of the Ichimoku cloud, a triple top from September and the medium term trend line from April. Stops were triggered with the cross rising to 135.40/45. EUR/JPY is currently at 135.35 with little justification either on investment flows, interest rate outlooks or other fundamentals for the gains. Model funds have dominated this cross this year and continue to do so with fresh buying seen over the last 24 hours. This continues to make the cross vulnerable to a major correction, once the technical momentum wears thin. Dealers do believe that some banks just wanted to target near-by stops and were behind both the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY rallies.

[18:32 EUR/USD: Reverses Course On Way To 1.2345] Boston, September 21: Logic and markets don"t always work hand-in-hand, and today seems a prime example of that. EUR/USD dipped to 1.2250/55 after the Fed reverted to its stance of hiking rates at a measured pace, but quickly reversed course and rocketed through offers between 1.2280 and 1.2300, tripping exotics and stops all the way up to 1.2345. A curious reaction, to be sure. 1.2350 Exotics remain on the books with more at 1.2400. 1.2280 is support on dips.

[18:18 EUR/USD: Dips From Highs; Fed On Measured Path] Boston, September 21: No noticeably dovish slant to the Fed statement, saying they will continue to remove accommodation at a measured pace while saying the economy has gained some
traction and labor markets have improved mildly. All in all, pretty upbeat. Stops are seen below 1.2245 with more below 1.2220. EUR made a foray above 1.2280 briefly ahead of the announcement.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a retrace down to 1.2280...
My first short at the top got nuked with about 6 pips. Now holding onto second short after FOMC...

Chinook
 
The dip around RTH margins change and close could be a good opportunity for positions, but as a scalper I'm rather careful right now. It was a given when it reversed from the low dip - and an easy 34 ticks profit registered. I gave back 2 ticks on a short earlier when it was blocked from dipping, but I'm sure glad I did not linger on that one. :)

edit:

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a retrace down to 1.2280...
My first short at the top got nuked with about 6 pips. Now holding onto second short after FOMC...
Chinook
More...

I think it was more related to end of RTH etc ... I will look at opportunities with long bias, but as you say - there is always the possibility - considering there was no big surprise from the FOMC.
Finally, remember all the stops triggered upwards ... it always changes the picture. Also the latest newsflow has been USD negative, which seemed to give € a little foothold.


edit: the current lingering seems to be a harbinger as well. Somethings gotta pop. :D
 
I missed the long entry during the dip after FOMC announcement. I was still deciding to go long or short. I was also waiting for at least 5 mins for things to settle. There was a small window of opportunity. Man then it popped up like there's no tomorrow! Good job.

Chinook
 
This should be very interesting - if no follow through then a very good opportunity to sell considering it has broke the triangle. I've shorted with tight stops - although watching VERY VERY carefully...
 
It it so obvious how the dip before and the rise after. Did all the spot FX brokers do this?

Oanda did....also there famous spread widening at the same time...

I observe these each time there is market moving news....Do they think traders are stupid?

Michael B.
 
These kind of news - are the BEST NEWS .... :D :D :D
Easy gains upwards ahead ...

[18:46 EUR/USD: Trendline Broken In Flurry; Sustainability Questioned] Boston, September 21: A tremendous amount of head scratching continues in EUR/USD with dealers noting a money center name buying indiscriminately on the move to 1.2345, lifting European and Scandinavian offers on the way up. The daily downtrend at 1.2310/15, drawn off the 1.2460 highs from July 19 is getting the much of the blame for the last 30 pips or so of buying as model and momentum guys jumped in. Many question the sustainability of the rally, however, given that it runs counter to the conventional reading of the FOMC statement. Some a re spinning the hikes as upping the odds of the US economy falling back into recession. The flatter US yield curve (flatter 6 bp on the day) is indicative of that thinking. 1.2280 is support now on dips. Options defense is seen ahead of 1.2345.


<pre>| [ EUR/JPY TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 137.90(M) |failure high May 18 |flat on a failure | [FLAT at]
: 137.10(M) |daily high Aug 16 |take profit, buy a break| [135.39]
: 136.70(M) |2% MA band top |flat on a failure |
: 135.50(M) |daily highs Aug 19,20 |sell failure, buy break |Open|21/09/04

[135.23] 19:10 GMT TUE 21 SEP : | TIME!19 37|

: 135.10(S) |dble day high Sept 13 & 14|expect stalling | |
: 134.35(M) |hrly low Sep 21 |buy a bounce |TGT |
: 133.80(M) |hrly high Sep 20, 61.8%R |buy a bounce |Stop|
: 133.05(M) |61.8% of 131.80 - 135.10 |sell a clear break |
============|==========================|=========================|============= </pre>
We have sold this pair after a second attempt to clear the prior medium-term uptrend line and Fibo projection resistance at 134.80. With prices overbought and in negative divergence on the intraday charts, the short is a good risk, especially with key resistance not far beyond at 135.10. Our target is the 133.80 hourly lows and 61.8% retracement.


YESSSS ... and open interest on crude oil is just lackluster - meaning short covering .. oil is going ballistic soon then. When including the Yukos problems and their cutting supplies to China - the big new consumption increaser - as well as crude reserves being low ... hehe.
 
All this action today and only +5 ticks for me :) Oh well, I had some good gains in the trades but sacrificed them for hopes of larger trend moves.

Chinook
 
Yup - not quite the large moves envisaged. Considering an important resisitance has been broken I can't say the follow through has been impressive. I suppose the clincher would be the bounce from previous resistance i.e. 1.2280 - if this is good I'll probably go with the flow...

I've re-shorted again - come-on USD show some muscle!
 
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