Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

If you are a Technical trader. You can put up an insane setting for Bollinger Bands such as 100, 4..... then scale in short at the breach of the upper band and exit with just 3 or 4 pips, adjusting the exit as your average short entry price increases.

THIS IS NOT RECOMMENDED AND ONLY FOR AN EXTREME SMALL PERCENT OF EQUITY PER TRADE. MAY BE MORE SUITABLE FOR OANDA TRADERS...

Last night I was "adding to" the entire evening on eur/gbp and trying to escape with just one pip! Finally got out, with that stupid pip! This is not for the faint of heart, and definitely not a quick money maker. Always remember to trade with stops, which this methodology does not do. It simply exits with targets. If you need to get out out you can always adjust targets to the negative range also...or just keep adding to. If there is a slow steady trend extending several points and days, without pullbacks, this trade can kill you....all for just a small scalp. It breaks all the rules and only needs one failure to wipe out all your profits...

And no I am not the trading god...

Michael B.
 
Quote from sulong:

Ya, I prefer when price reaches out to the supply/demand lines, opposed to the lines reaching out to the price, due to time.

I'll give it another hour or so, then I'm outta here.
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Solung, what do you mean by 'when price reaches out to the supply/demand lines', the rate is the supply/demand line, not?
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Last night I was "adding to" the entire evening on eur/gbp and trying to escape with just one pip! Finally got out, with that stupid pip! This is not for the faint of heart, and definitely not a quick money maker. Always remember to trade with stops, which this methodology does not do. It simply exits with targets. If you need to get out out you can always adjust targets to the negative range also...or just keep adding to. If there is a slow steady trend extending several points and days, without pullbacks, this trade can kill you....all for just a small scalp. It breaks all the rules and only needs one failure to wipe out all your profits...

And no I am not the trading god...

Michael B.
More...

I have another rule to add to yesterday's plan. I never average a loss. It is far too risky.

My temperement makes scalping for a few pips a poor strategy. I usually end up 'winning' for say 10 trades in a row then losing more than I have made in the last one. That is not to say I never take a single pip profit but that is not my intention when I take a trade. However I do think you should be flexible when trading and even if a trade hasn't hit my pre-defined target I will cut if it seems wrong.
 
Well, this was a surprise of sorts. I didn't think we would linger so much around the 1.2190 levels on the spot, and would much rather prefer a break either way now. No surprise in weak numbers, but that the rate expectations got swayed at all. I don't think that the FOMC reset their opinions as fast as the markets, but we need to take into considerations all new additions and subtractions of opinions of traders into the market - which makes it more unpredictable. The FOMC however are much more stable in their opinions and actions, I think.

Kind of a hair-pulling day, where I made few trades but with minimal profits at the end with commissions subtracted.
It could easily be one of those red days, because twice I did not get out of bad trades when I had a small profit, or even at break-even several times for each of those trades going against me. Greed and great expectations are those cookiemonsters to be kept under a tight lid.
:)


[21:18 EUR/JPY: Cross Closing Above Key Support Levels] San Francisco, September 16th: The fact that USD/JPY was unable to break 109.50 while EUR/USD rallied in response to the fall in US yields today, rescued the EUR/JPY from a potentially bearish close today. The EUR/JPY had traded much of the NY morning around 133.20 and under the Tenkan line at 133.43, under the 200-day moving average at 133.39 and under the base of the Ichimoku cloud at 133.40. But, the gains this afternoon have the cross closing at 133.60 and above those levels. Certainly it is not bullish but only insures more range-trading with offers at 134.00 and 134.50. Bids remain at 133.00/10 with stops under 133.00.

[20:36 USD: Fed Custody Holdings Rise $2.012 Bln In Week To Sept. 15th] San Francisco, September 16th: Fed custody holdings have risen $2.012 bln on a week-to-week basis for the week ending September 15th. This has taken custody holdings to new record highs of $1.293 tln. On a average basis, custody holdings were up only a mere $450 mln to $1.291 tln. Some attention was paid today to a think tank report that suggests that Japanese official purchases of treasuries are set to slow. Many analysts have tipped this for some time since Japan has been sitting on the cash proceeds of the massive intervention seen the first three months of this year. The funds have been on deposit and have gradually been moved to the treasury market. Japanese deposits have dropped back under $130 bln, down from $180 bln in March and near the levels seen last December, increasing expectations that Japan"s pace of treasury purchases will slow.
 
I do not know what impact this is having on the mkt today
and tommorrow. Probably less liquidity in the NY time zone.

I am staying pretty flat until Monday.

On a side note there is got to be a little pain out there
for those on the wrong side of cable (gbp/usd) the last 2 days.
I hate that currency.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Well, this was a surprise of sorts. I didn't think we would linger so much around the 1.2190 levels on the spot, and would much rather prefer a break either way now.

Kind of a hair-pulling day, where I made few trades but with minimal profits at the end with commissions subtracted.
It could easily be one of those red days, because twice I did not get out of bad trades when I had a small profit, or even at break-even several times for each of those trades going against me. Greed and great expectations are those cookiemonsters to be kept under a tight lid.
:)
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I also had a hair-pulling day. I went short after the 1.2130 level breakdown but closed it late. Then after the Philly Fed spike retracement, I was long at a good level but couldn't hold on to the trade after two small retracements and closed it at b/e after 8-9 minutes. Both trades were within my "text book trending" parameters but I violated my trailing stops in both cases. So far terrible trading week for me filled with revenge trades and violating very simple rules.

Lately, I started using lot of discretion in my trades. I notice that my initial readings of the market is usually accurate but once I'm in a trade those 7-8 pip fluctuations started to throw me off. I used to ride those 60-70 pip trends easily. Then I got greedy and wanted milk almost every twist and turn of the market and made things harder. I really need to reduce using discretion to a minimum and enter trades that are within rigid parameters and obey the trailing stops 100%.

Chinook
 
Quote from gwac:

I do not know what impact this is having on the mkt today
and tommorrow. Probably less liquidity in the NY time zone.

I am staying pretty flat until Monday.

On a side note there is got to be a little pain out there
for those on the wrong side of cable (gbp/usd) the last 2 days.
I hate that currency.
More...

Thanks for the reminder. And there's no US # number release except the consumer sentiment. I think the 1.22 and 1.215 range might hold up well going into Monday.

Chinook
 
This trading business rests on such a delicate balance. The utmost important variable is our mental balance. We need this balance to control how much risk we're taking. The market doesn't care about indicators, resistance support levels etc... We can't control the market but we can have very strict control on ourselves.

It can easily take one single trade to blow up an account. It'll be a day where your mind is kind of fuzzy maybe you're pissed at something or you feel great since you'll be going to this exotic vacation next day. You put on a trade with your max size thinking that you see a great opportunity. First it goes in your favor, you feel great and imagine your account growing multiple times in the future. Then the pullback starts. You frantically start looking at your charts and try to find a reason to stay in the trade. Then next thing you know, you are pushing your stop. Now you're in decent red territory. You can't believe this is happening and you add the last chunk to your losing position. The trend keeps building up by popping stops and attracting new buyers/sellers. Well you know the rest.

Chinook
 
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