Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Going into the fed meeting, I would be long dollars till then,
any euro uptick is just another opportunity to sell euros.
IMHO 1.2220 will hold on the upside and 1.1950 on the bottom.
I think the mkt is going to try to test the 1.1950-1.1990 level
that has twice held by Monday or even earlier if the Data releases
are within expectations.
any euro uptick is just another opportunity to sell euros.
IMHO 1.2220 will hold on the upside and 1.1950 on the bottom.
I think the mkt is going to try to test the 1.1950-1.1990 level
that has twice held by Monday or even earlier if the Data releases
are within expectations.
Anything hinting of necessity or not of US rate hikes will trigger nice moves right now I think. There're always focus on the FOMC meetings and Fed-citations. The same goes for any number believed to have impact on deficits or debts - seen as the big problems in the US economy forward.
Fashionable stuff.
Similar move 21:00 EST compared to yesterday.
[23:47 EUR/JPY Long Liquidation Climax Overnight, Consolidation] Tokyo, Sep 16. Although it may still be a bit premature to say EUR/JPY has bottoming, the feeling this morning amongst many Asian players is that EUR/JPY long-liquidation is probably over with the move overnight to a low of 133.63. The pair is holding not far from this level at 133.70/75 currently. Very good support is eyed at 133.60-65, where the 10-day moving average comes in, highs from September 2-3 and last night"s low in New York. More support is seen directly below at 133.42, the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. Helping to support the downside may be some Japanese institutional investor interest in bonds auctions in Europe tonight, including France"s sale of E4-4.5 bln in 5-year OATs and Spain"s sale of E2.4 bln in 10 and 30-year Bonos. Previous auctions this week by Italy, Greece and the Netherlands did not see much Japanese demand, but some players seem hopeful of more interest in tonight"s sales.
Upside resistance is seen at 134.00 and then in the 134.20-35 zone, a series of highs yesterday. The New York high was 134.23 and Tokyo and London saw 134.35. EUR/JPY currently trades 133.67/70.
<pre>| [ EUR/JPY TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 135.50(M) |daily highs Aug 19,20 |flat on a failure | [FLAT at]
: 135.10(S) |dble day high Sept 13 & 14|sell failure, buy break | [134.60]
: 134.45(M) |50% of 135.10 - 133.80 |sell a failure |
: 134.30(M) |hourly resistance Sept 15 |expect stalling |Open|14/09/04
[133.45] 01:00 GMT THU 16 SEP : | TIME 10 48|
: 133.60(M) |10-day MA, Sep 2,3 highs |sell a break below | |
: 133.05(M) |61.8% of 131.80 - 135.10 |cover on a bounce |TGT |
: 131.80(M) |pullback low Sept 8 |cover on a bounce |Stop|
: 131.60(S) |daily lows Aug 27, 30 |take profits sell break |
============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre>
EUR/JPY has begun the correction of the rally from 131.80-135.10. We believe and interim bottom of significance is in place at 131.80, and target remains topside at 136.55/75. We will watch this correction unfold and look for triggers to get long, as 131.80 too far away to keep stops. Intraday traders should buy 133.00/15 first attempt for rally back to 134.25.
Hmm, got a partial fill - but still - it was worth a 9-pip short shot. Should have chased it when it was so obvious.
Fashionable stuff.
Similar move 21:00 EST compared to yesterday.
[23:47 EUR/JPY Long Liquidation Climax Overnight, Consolidation] Tokyo, Sep 16. Although it may still be a bit premature to say EUR/JPY has bottoming, the feeling this morning amongst many Asian players is that EUR/JPY long-liquidation is probably over with the move overnight to a low of 133.63. The pair is holding not far from this level at 133.70/75 currently. Very good support is eyed at 133.60-65, where the 10-day moving average comes in, highs from September 2-3 and last night"s low in New York. More support is seen directly below at 133.42, the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. Helping to support the downside may be some Japanese institutional investor interest in bonds auctions in Europe tonight, including France"s sale of E4-4.5 bln in 5-year OATs and Spain"s sale of E2.4 bln in 10 and 30-year Bonos. Previous auctions this week by Italy, Greece and the Netherlands did not see much Japanese demand, but some players seem hopeful of more interest in tonight"s sales.
Upside resistance is seen at 134.00 and then in the 134.20-35 zone, a series of highs yesterday. The New York high was 134.23 and Tokyo and London saw 134.35. EUR/JPY currently trades 133.67/70.
<pre>| [ EUR/JPY TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 135.50(M) |daily highs Aug 19,20 |flat on a failure | [FLAT at]
: 135.10(S) |dble day high Sept 13 & 14|sell failure, buy break | [134.60]
: 134.45(M) |50% of 135.10 - 133.80 |sell a failure |
: 134.30(M) |hourly resistance Sept 15 |expect stalling |Open|14/09/04
[133.45] 01:00 GMT THU 16 SEP : | TIME 10 48|
: 133.60(M) |10-day MA, Sep 2,3 highs |sell a break below | |
: 133.05(M) |61.8% of 131.80 - 135.10 |cover on a bounce |TGT |
: 131.80(M) |pullback low Sept 8 |cover on a bounce |Stop|
: 131.60(S) |daily lows Aug 27, 30 |take profits sell break |
============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre>
EUR/JPY has begun the correction of the rally from 131.80-135.10. We believe and interim bottom of significance is in place at 131.80, and target remains topside at 136.55/75. We will watch this correction unfold and look for triggers to get long, as 131.80 too far away to keep stops. Intraday traders should buy 133.00/15 first attempt for rally back to 134.25.
Hmm, got a partial fill - but still - it was worth a 9-pip short shot. Should have chased it when it was so obvious.
Too true, gwac.
I look forward to trading the shakes, spikes or whatever. I will try not to do be too stubborn like the when Greenie testified last time.
[01:21 EUR/JPY Down A Notch, Eyeing Test Of 133.42 Ichimoku Base] Tokyo, Sep 16. After holding steady at 133.60-70 earlier, EUR/JPY is seeing some renewed sales. Initial support at 133.60-65 has been pierced and the market is down to 133.48/53. It seems some specs are eyeing a test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom at 133.42 today. A break below 133.40 is likely to see some stops tripped. That said, long liquidation is seen mostly to be over, and a move below 133.40 is likely to be met by some fresh buying. Next technical support is eyed at 133.00-10, 61.8% Fibo retracement of 131.80-135.10. More stops, this time from longer-term players, are eyed on a break below.
[00:11 EUR/USD: Holds Above Fibo Support In Early Trading] Sydney September 16. The EUR/USD is holding above the 61.8% retracement of last week"s rise from 1.2030 to 1.2310 at 1.2135, which was also the overnight low. The pairing has traded in a tight 1.2146/57 range so far this morning, in quiet markets. There are small stops reported below 1.2135 and a sustained break here will target a 1.2100 test. Highly oversold hourly stochastic studies flag caution for bears at this point, as they often trigger a bounce, as they unwind in Asia. Tonight CPI figures are due from the EMU and the U.S., which will impact interest rate expectations. The treasury will also release the TIC data for July which will give an insight on how easily the U.S. deficit is being funded. The slow start suggests another session of tight ranges for the EUR/USD in Asia.
I look forward to trading the shakes, spikes or whatever. I will try not to do be too stubborn like the when Greenie testified last time.
[01:21 EUR/JPY Down A Notch, Eyeing Test Of 133.42 Ichimoku Base] Tokyo, Sep 16. After holding steady at 133.60-70 earlier, EUR/JPY is seeing some renewed sales. Initial support at 133.60-65 has been pierced and the market is down to 133.48/53. It seems some specs are eyeing a test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom at 133.42 today. A break below 133.40 is likely to see some stops tripped. That said, long liquidation is seen mostly to be over, and a move below 133.40 is likely to be met by some fresh buying. Next technical support is eyed at 133.00-10, 61.8% Fibo retracement of 131.80-135.10. More stops, this time from longer-term players, are eyed on a break below.
[00:11 EUR/USD: Holds Above Fibo Support In Early Trading] Sydney September 16. The EUR/USD is holding above the 61.8% retracement of last week"s rise from 1.2030 to 1.2310 at 1.2135, which was also the overnight low. The pairing has traded in a tight 1.2146/57 range so far this morning, in quiet markets. There are small stops reported below 1.2135 and a sustained break here will target a 1.2100 test. Highly oversold hourly stochastic studies flag caution for bears at this point, as they often trigger a bounce, as they unwind in Asia. Tonight CPI figures are due from the EMU and the U.S., which will impact interest rate expectations. The treasury will also release the TIC data for July which will give an insight on how easily the U.S. deficit is being funded. The slow start suggests another session of tight ranges for the EUR/USD in Asia.
www.ifrmarkets.com
or Refco,FXCM Trading Station news. Great comments, aren't they ? It sometimes help - just like forum threads on FX - to see what the opinion of others are, and what rumours are floating around about big fish.
Anyone can compare to FX news on Bloomberg, Reuters terminal ? How does Thomson Financial size up to them ? I know Bloomberg many times quote stuff from Thomson ...
I think there's a FX Week survey about rating FX news sources ... perhaps IFR/Thomson are some of the best ? They seem well worth every â¬. Check out the www.ifrmarkets.com site which displays the banner for FX Week.
[01:51 GMT Sep 16th] USD/JPY continues to see-saw in a core 109.50-110.00. A move down to 109.30-35 in late Asia/early London trading yesterday proved to be a head-fake. It rallied thereafter on sizeable Japanese importer buys to settle monthly oil settlements. Crude oil itself surged back above $45/barrel to $45.30. Dealers also noted a very strong August Empire State manufacturing index. A high of 110.40 was seen before USD/JPY retraced lower. Most of the factors helping to goose up USD/JPY yesterday are now history. Crude oil has since come off, closing at $43.58, down 81 cts on the day. Japanese importers flows are over with and exporters still look keen to sell on 110. Offers were noted early at 110.30 and the talk is they have been brought down to 110.00-10 now. There has also been a reassessment of U.S. data out last night. The New York index is a minor indicator at best, and industrial production weaker than expected and inventories higher. Cross weakness continues as well. EUR/JPY is down another notch, close to the 133.42 Ichimoku cloud bottom. Stops are eyed below as well as below 133.00, 05 being a Fibo retracement level.
EUR/GBP traded above the 0.6850 former high from Sept 10 but could not sustain prices above there. There is a danger that an interim top was made at 0.6856 last night which could see prices correct back to 0.6760 and lower. Break back below 0.6825 strongly supports a top in place. The immediate uptrend however
is still in tact above 0.6825 and has to be respected.
[01:30 EUR/CHF: Towards The Top Of A Well Defined Range] Sydney September 16. The EUR/CHF has been in a 1.5450/1.5310 range since late July. The base is now a quadruple bottom on the daily charts and the top has also been tested on four occasions. 1.5450 also represents 50% of this years fall from 1.5865 to 1.5040. The pairing failed at 1.5450 last night, but the pullback has been limited thus far. Our strategy would be to fade a rally towards 1.5450, with a tight stop, or buy a close above for a test of 1.5550, 61.8% of 1.5865 - 1.5040.
Anyone tried www.forextv.com ? Are there any other similar focused TV products out there (except Bloomberg, CNBC etc) ?
"Forex TV moves to Nymex trading floor
NEW YORK â Forex Television is this month moving to a trading floor in the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) building. The trading floor will be operated by sister firm e-FX Trader, which was set up in March to offer trading services in conjunction with the news and analysis portal.
Tim Kelly, chief executive of Forex TV in New York, hoped the move would have a positive impact on its news by making it more responsive to market events.
Forex TV has also made progress towards the launch of proprietary channels on its website, www.forextv.com. A medium-sized bank will launch its own channel of video research on the portal this month. This will follow the extension of ForexTV to include equity indexes and fixed-income news, following requests from users for more complementary coverage."
[03:41 EUR/USD: Consolidates As Oversold Short-term Studies Unwind] Sydney September 16. The consolidation this morning in the tight 1.2143.58 range has allowed the oversold short-term RSI and stochastic studies to unwind. This opens the door for a possible test of light stops below last night"s low and Fibo support at 1.2135. Dealers report a slow session so far and expect tight ranges to continue going into the European open.
"Forex TV moves to Nymex trading floor
NEW YORK â Forex Television is this month moving to a trading floor in the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) building. The trading floor will be operated by sister firm e-FX Trader, which was set up in March to offer trading services in conjunction with the news and analysis portal.
Tim Kelly, chief executive of Forex TV in New York, hoped the move would have a positive impact on its news by making it more responsive to market events.
Forex TV has also made progress towards the launch of proprietary channels on its website, www.forextv.com. A medium-sized bank will launch its own channel of video research on the portal this month. This will follow the extension of ForexTV to include equity indexes and fixed-income news, following requests from users for more complementary coverage."
[03:41 EUR/USD: Consolidates As Oversold Short-term Studies Unwind] Sydney September 16. The consolidation this morning in the tight 1.2143.58 range has allowed the oversold short-term RSI and stochastic studies to unwind. This opens the door for a possible test of light stops below last night"s low and Fibo support at 1.2135. Dealers report a slow session so far and expect tight ranges to continue going into the European open.