Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

[Gringinho]

Quote from chinook:

Good job! I'm not sure either. Probably, it'll be choppy sideways or choppy slight trend up maybe 20-40 pips...
Chinook

Perhaps ...
I took another shot short at the 1.2145 resistance-area almost all the way down. Now, just 10 more pips divided on 1-2 trades and I'll be content -- famous last words.

Apropos ... some mental smilies:

"I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather not screaming in terror like his passengers."
"I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it."
"If you can smile when things go wrong, you have someone in mind to blame."
"Time is the best teacher; unfortunately it kills all its students."

"Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level then beat you with experience."
"Laugh alone and the world thinks you're an idiot."

 

[Gringinho]

Well, at least I manage to change my trade bias easily nowadays. I take short and long just as easily - although the longs hurt some around 1.22-ish.

I just love the EuroFX for various reasons. One of them is because of all the various events and numbers that are published every week and affect markets -- like next week:
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2004/month/09/day/20/daily/index.html

"every day is like Christmas ..."

I'm not going back to the ES anytime soon either -- activity is still lackluster and could continue like that the rest of the decade for what I know.

[16:49 FX OPTIONS: Vols Sink To 13-Month Lows, But Hold Out Hope] New York, September 15: Despite spot trading in narrow ranges for the last 4 months, EUR/USD vols have made a return visit to support near 9.0%. That is essentially where the 13-month low was set in Late July, but the continued coiling of spot suggests prices should be even lower. Some of the buying can be chalked up to event risk, with the upcoming US Presidential election ands seasonal aspects suggest a rise in vols and many hope for vols to rise with the end of the summer. There is hope today since real money accounts were involved in the spot market today and could signal the beginning of a broader spot move that would support vols.
1-month EUR/USD vols fell 0.25% to 9.0% and the Risk Reversal fell 0.05% to 0.1% favoring EUR calls. There were some 1.2300 strikes that rolled off today, without impact. A US name sold a large amount of 1.2100 overnight EUR calls, so spot may be limited to that level until later tomorrow, with the market sitting long gamma. 1-month USD/CHF vols fell 0.1% to 9.75%, an 11-month low, and the RR rose 0.05% to -0.15% favoring CHF calls. Traders are buzzing over the late day purchase yesterday of 3-month 1.5550-1.5050 DNTs with a $3 mln payout. 1-month GBP/USD vols fell 0.55% to 8.10% and the RR steadied at -0.25% favoring GBP puts.

 

[chinook]

Quote from Gringinho:

Perhaps ...
I took another shot short at the 1.2145 resistance-area almost all the way down. Now, just 10 more pips divided on 1-2 trades and I'll be content -- famous last words.

Apropos ... some mental smilies:

"I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather not screaming in terror like his passengers."
"I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it."
"If you can smile when things go wrong, you have someone in mind to blame."
"Time is the best teacher; unfortunately it kills all its students."

"Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level then beat you with experience."
"Laugh alone and the world thinks you're an idiot."

Good ones

I screwed up my time-frames and resisted taking the short side after the morning eco numbers. Holding a position overnight and see it go much more in my direction after I closed it made me "insane". I should have taken a 30min brake!

Not a good day for me so far.

Chinook

 

[chinook]

Quote from Gringinho:

Well, at least I manage to change my trade bias easily nowadays. I take short and long just as easily - although the longs hurt some around 1.22-ish.

I just love the EuroFX for various reasons. One of them is because of all the various events and numbers that are published every week and affect markets -- like next week:
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2004/month/09/day/20/daily/index.html

"every day is like Christmas ..."

I'm not going back to the ES anytime soon either -- activity is still lackluster and could continue like that the rest of the decade for what I know.

I agree with you about the opportunities in FX. Although, I've been having problems milking it lately. I used change my trade bias easily two but last two weeks I became stubborn. I started thinking too much about my equity curve and $$$ instead of planning better trades and exits.

I can usually make decent short-term predictions. I get the direction OK but I tend to put very tight stops and get whipped.
I also try to catch the whole move which is impossible. I need to loosen my stops and stop beating up myself after every trade.


Chinook

 

[TRADERguy]

Quote from ElectricSavant:

So GMT is 7 hrs later than California..pacific time....got it!

You folks could charge money for your knowledge, thanks again...

Michael B.

I use Worldtime 6, a clock that is displayed on your computer screen that shows the time in different cities. You can chose the locations and the times are synchronized with an atomic clock. Mine displays the time for Chicago, New York, UTC (GMT), London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Sydney, and Wellington. It is especially helpful when times change to/from daylight savings in some places and not others and on different dates.

http://www.pawprint.net/wt/

btw- it's free.

 

[csaunders]

Quote from chinook:

I agree with you about the opportunities in FX. Although, I've been having problems milking it lately. I used change my trade bias easily two but last two weeks I became stubborn. I started thinking too much about my equity curve and $$$ instead of planning better trades and exits.

I can usually make decent short-term predictions. I get the direction OK but I tend to put very tight stops and get whipped.
I also try to catch the whole move which is impossible. I need to loosen my stops and stop beating up myself after every trade.


Chinook

Have you considered not trading full-time - rather get a job which allows you to sit behind a PC and watch prices/trade when opportunities arise. This takes the stress away from having to make money to pay bills etc. Plus your capital can grow - no withdrawals required to pay bills and the like.

I used to think that I would like to trade full-time, although now I think it would only be detrimental to my trading.

 

[Lon Eagle]

I trade full time and to be honest couldn't do it anyother way. I only tend to do 0-5 trades a day as well.

Had a great August but so far this month found it very tough (although not down) but I would have earnt more stacking shelves! Lost today but to be honest quite happpy it was just $1,500. One of those very frustrating days when every time you had a right position the market takes too long to move your way and when you are wrong it flies against you.

There is always tomorrow!

 

[Gringinho]

Quote from chinook:

I agree with you about the opportunities in FX. Although, I've been having problems milking it lately. I used change my trade bias easily two but last two weeks I became stubborn. I started thinking too much about my equity curve and $$$ instead of planning better trades and exits.

I can usually make decent short-term predictions. I get the direction OK but I tend to put very tight stops and get whipped.
I also try to catch the whole move which is impossible. I need to loosen my stops and stop beating up myself after every trade.
Chinook

Sounds a bit like me too. I can get smaller moves right, but if I was getting stubborn I would be six feet under. I think that's an inherent characteristic of the markets - we can all see how it's doing - but never know (!) where it's going.

Scalping works for me - but I watch my equity curve, commissions and €s like a mad elephant mother, adjusting every time I think it's prudent. I run scared when running the profits up. Running is the most effective and popular art of defense after all.



[17:51 EUR/USD: Consolidating Above 1.2135 Fibo] Boston, September 15: EUR/USD is consolidating its losses around 1.2150 after finding support around the 1.2315 level, the 61.8% fibo of the 1.2030/1.2310 rally. Real money sellers continue to be seen this afternoon with institutional accounts selling steadily, though not in great size. Stops are seen in the 1.2125/30 area. 1.2160 is now resistance intraday. This morning"s stronger than expected Empire State Mfg data has the market on guard for a rebound in the Philly Fed index, rather than a further drop which economists had forecast. The manufacturing index dropped to 28.5 in August from 36.1 in July and the median forecast in our survey of economists is for a further drop to 25.5. Since Empire State and Philly are correlated at 81%, now dealers must factor in the possibility of a Philly Fed bounce.

 

[chinook]

Quote from csaunders:

Have you considered not trading full-time - rather get a job which allows you to sit behind a PC and watch prices/trade when opportunities arise. This takes the stress away from having to make money to pay bills etc. Plus your capital can grow - no withdrawals required to pay bills and the like.

I used to think that I would like to trade full-time, although now I think it would only be detrimental to my trading.

I used to have such a job. But I had job related distractions and felt guilty about getting paid and not concentrating 100% on my regular job--I almost spent 50% of my time on trading related activities.

It's a big jump to trade full-time especially if you have wife&kids to support. I don't have a family but I support my mom little bit.
I cut down all my extra expenses, trips, eating out, good wines etc..If you are single and current job is not satisfactory then one can give a shot to trading.

I still believe that trading is not that hard but our minds play alot tricks. I feel like I'm constantly fighting within myself. I need stop the internal chatter.

Chinook

 

[csaunders]

Quote from Lon Eagle:

I trade full time and to be honest couldn't do it anyother way. I only tend to do 0-5 trades a day as well.

Had a great August but so far this month found it very tough (although not down) but I would have earnt more stacking shelves! Lost today but to be honest quite happpy it was just $1,500. One of those very frustrating days when every time you had a right position the market takes too long to move your way and when you are wrong it flies against you.

There is always tomorrow!

I'm in the pretty fortunate position where I can do both - so far so good. One does not really interfere with the other although it can be exhausting and I sleep well at night generally.

I also find its good to have another focus - otherwise one can easily baby-sit those positions way too carefully.

The action post the announcement was a bit difficult - although I made some and still short with half my original position. Expecting a pullback although would like to sell into it...

Good luck